This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.27
1.31
1.19
1.50
1.36
vs Stronger (24)
1.29
1.21
1.17
1.17
1.42
1.25
vs Similar (6)
1.83
1.50
1.75
1.25
2.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
50.7%
@ 2.02+4.0%
Under 2.5
49.3%
@ 1.77-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.6%
Under 3.5
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-2
8.5%
0-1
8.1%
2-1 ✓
8.0%
0-0
7.9%
1-0
7.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
5.8%
Hartlepool goals ↓
Rochdale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
8.1%
6.5%
3.0%
1.1%
1
7.6%
13%
8.5%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.8%
8.0%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.5%
3.5%
2.4%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hartlepool goals (down), columns = Rochdale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Exeter
1.83
Forest Green
1.83
Bristol Rvs
1.74
Northampton
1.74
Port Vale
1.70
Swindon
1.67
Mansfield
1.67
Sutton
1.65
Tranmere
1.63
Salford
1.52
Newport County
1.50
Crawley Town
1.33
Leyton Orient
1.26
Bradford
1.26
Colchester
1.20
Walsall
1.17
Hartlepool
1.17
Carlisle
1.15
Rochdale
1.15
Harrogate
1.15
Stevenage
1.02
Barrow
0.96
Oldham
0.83
Scunthorpe
0.57
Hartlepool is 0.02 points better than Rochdale in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.15).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Swindon
1.67
Forest Green
1.63
Bristol Rvs
1.54
Sutton
1.50
Newport County
1.46
Port Vale
1.46
Mansfield
1.46
Exeter
1.41
Harrogate
1.39
Leyton Orient
1.35
Salford
1.30
Northampton
1.30
Crawley Town
1.22
Tranmere
1.15
Bradford
1.15
Rochdale
1.11
Colchester
1.04
Walsall
1.02
Oldham
1.00
Stevenage
0.98
Hartlepool
0.96
Barrow
0.96
Carlisle
0.85
Scunthorpe
0.63
Hartlepool is 0.15 goals worse than Rochdale in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Northampton
0.83
Tranmere
0.87
Exeter
0.89
Forest Green
0.96
Port Vale
1.00
Salford
1.00
Leyton Orient
1.02
Bristol Rvs
1.07
Mansfield
1.13
Sutton
1.15
Swindon
1.17
Bradford
1.20
Barrow
1.24
Newport County
1.26
Rochdale
1.28
Walsall
1.30
Colchester
1.30
Carlisle
1.35
Hartlepool
1.39
Crawley Town
1.43
Stevenage
1.48
Oldham
1.63
Harrogate
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.96
Hartlepool is 0.11 goals worse than Rochdale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
60%
Forest Green
54%
Rochdale
54%
Leyton Orient
53%
Exeter
53%
Salford
51%
Newport County
51%
Mansfield
51%
Tranmere
51%
Hartlepool
51%
Harrogate
51%
Barrow
51%
Port Vale
50%
Walsall
49%
Bradford
49%
Oldham
48%
Northampton
48%
Crawley Town
47%
Colchester
47%
Carlisle
46%
Stevenage
46%
Scunthorpe
46%
Sutton
44%
Hartlepool is 3.5 percentage points worse than Rochdale in terms of average possession (51% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hartlepool
For 3.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
For 6.7 · Against 5.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.3 · Against 9.9 · Total 17.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hartlepool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.2
7.3
8.9
2.9
2.8
3.1
22.9
25.0
21.1
vs Stronger (27)
8.6
8.3
8.9
2.8
2.6
2.9
21.5
22.8
20.5
vs Similar (22)
6.8
5.3
9.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
27.0
29.3
23.5
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
5.0
-
5.0
-
-
-
% over line
37%
22%
50%
38%
33%
42%
79%
89%
70%
% under line
63%
78%
50%
62%
67%
58%
21%
11%
30%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.2
2.7
2.7
2.8
20.8
19.9
21.6
vs Stronger (43)
10.0
9.8
10.1
2.7
2.9
2.7
20.7
20.4
21.0
vs Similar (7)
10.4
10.0
11.5
2.6
2.0
4.0
21.1
17.8
29.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
60%
52%
30%
32%
28%
46%
40%
52%
% under line
44%
40%
48%
70%
68%
72%
54%
60%
48%
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sutton
11.2
Oldham
10.9
Forest Green
10.3
Exeter
10.2
Rochdale
10.0
Carlisle
10.0
Swindon
9.8
Tranmere
9.8
Colchester
9.7
Crawley Town
9.7
Barrow
9.7
Scunthorpe
9.6
Bradford
9.5
Harrogate
9.4
Bristol Rvs
9.4
Leyton Orient
9.3
Mansfield
9.3
Stevenage
9.2
Port Vale
9.1
Northampton
9.0
Walsall
8.9
Newport County
8.9
Salford
8.4
Hartlepool
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bristol Rvs
4.1
Barrow
3.9
Sutton
3.7
Salford
3.7
Leyton Orient
3.6
Mansfield
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Forest Green
3.4
Colchester
3.4
Carlisle
3.3
Oldham
3.2
Crawley Town
3.2
Port Vale
3.2
Swindon
3.2
Scunthorpe
3.1
Walsall
3.1
Newport County
3.1
Bradford
3.1
Tranmere
3.1
Stevenage
3.0
Hartlepool
2.9
Harrogate
2.9
Rochdale
2.7
Exeter
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bristol Rvs
26.4
Crawley Town
26.2
Mansfield
26.0
Northampton
25.3
Walsall
25.2
Carlisle
25.1
Tranmere
24.3
Scunthorpe
24.2
Port Vale
24.0
Barrow
24.0
Salford
23.9
Harrogate
23.9
Stevenage
23.8
Bradford
23.7
Forest Green
23.6
Swindon
23.5
Leyton Orient
23.2
Colchester
23.1
Hartlepool
22.9
Newport County
22.5
Sutton
22.0
Exeter
21.4
Oldham
21.4
Rochdale
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
40.6%
Under 9.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.6%
Under 3.5
78.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
28.2%
Under 21.5
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hartlepool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.79
0.79
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (21)
0.48
0.62
0.80
0.50
0.18
0.73
vs Similar (8)
0.88
1.12
0.75
1.50
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.57
0.38
0.56
0.36
0.57
vs Stronger (24)
0.29
0.54
0.33
0.58
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hartlepool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
1.14
0.36
0.81
1.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.67
0.81
0.90
0.50
0.45
1.09
vs Similar (8)
1.50
0.75
1.75
0.00
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
0.94
0.62
1.14
0.79
vs Stronger (24)
1.00
0.67
0.83
0.58
1.17
0.75
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
PV (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
BR (24)
€5m
SWI (22)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
EXE (15)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
FG (4)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SCU (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Hartlepool's squad is €2m less valuable than Rochdale's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
STE (6)
€2m
BR (10)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
PV (5)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
PV (7)
€2m
SAL (5)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
BR (4)
€0m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
FG (0)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PV (11)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
BR (10)
€3m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
EXE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
FG (2)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Forest Green
Exeter
Bristol Rvs
Northampton
Port Vale
Swindon
Mansfield
Sutton
Tranmere
Salford
Newport County
Crawley Town
Leyton Orient
Bradford
Colchester
Walsall
Harrogate
Carlisle
Stevenage
Barrow
Oldham
Scunthorpe