This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.53
1.07
1.67
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
1.48
0.91
1.55
0.83
1.42
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.71
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.6%
@ 2.27+1.2%
Under 2.5
57.4%
@ 1.60-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
10.5%
2-0 ✓
8.9%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
Hartlepool goals ↓
Rochdale goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.9%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.9%
8.8%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
4.1%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.4%
1.4%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hartlepool goals (down), columns = Rochdale goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leyton Orient
1.98
Stevenage
1.85
Northampton
1.80
Stockport
1.72
Bradford
1.65
Carlisle
1.65
Mansfield
1.63
Salford
1.63
Barrow
1.35
Grimsby
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Sutton
1.26
Crewe
1.26
Tranmere
1.26
Newport County
1.24
Doncaster
1.20
Walsall
1.20
Gillingham
1.20
Harrogate
1.13
Colchester
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.00
Hartlepool
0.93
Rochdale
0.83
Hartlepool is 0.11 points better than Rochdale in terms of average points per game (0.93 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Mansfield
1.57
Salford
1.57
Carlisle
1.43
Stockport
1.41
Northampton
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.33
Swindon
1.33
Bradford
1.33
Stevenage
1.33
Harrogate
1.28
Newport County
1.15
Hartlepool
1.13
Grimsby
1.07
AFC Wimbledon
1.04
Crawley Town
1.04
Crewe
1.04
Barrow
1.02
Sutton
1.00
Doncaster
1.00
Walsall
1.00
Rochdale
1.00
Tranmere
0.98
Colchester
0.96
Gillingham
0.78
Hartlepool is 0.13 goals better than Rochdale in terms of goals scored per game (1.13 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leyton Orient
0.74
Stockport
0.80
Stevenage
0.85
Northampton
0.91
Bradford
0.93
Carlisle
0.93
Tranmere
1.04
Walsall
1.07
Gillingham
1.07
Colchester
1.11
Barrow
1.15
Salford
1.17
Swindon
1.20
Mansfield
1.20
Grimsby
1.22
Newport County
1.22
Sutton
1.26
AFC Wimbledon
1.30
Crewe
1.30
Doncaster
1.41
Harrogate
1.48
Rochdale
1.52
Crawley Town
1.54
Hartlepool
1.70
Hartlepool is 0.17 goals worse than Rochdale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Swindon
58%
Leyton Orient
58%
Salford
57%
Bradford
54%
Stockport
54%
Mansfield
53%
Hartlepool
51%
Crawley Town
51%
Northampton
51%
Tranmere
51%
Grimsby
50%
Doncaster
50%
Rochdale
49%
Harrogate
48%
Crewe
48%
Stevenage
48%
AFC Wimbledon
47%
Newport County
46%
Carlisle
46%
Sutton
46%
Walsall
46%
Barrow
46%
Colchester
46%
Gillingham
45%
Hartlepool is 1.8 percentage points better than Rochdale in terms of average possession (51% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hartlepool
For 3.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 9.3 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rochdale
For 4.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hartlepool
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.8
9.3
2.7
2.4
3.0
20.8
21.8
19.9
vs Stronger (37)
9.1
9.2
9.0
3.0
2.5
3.6
21.8
22.6
20.8
vs Similar (13)
9.0
7.2
9.8
1.9
1.8
2.0
18.0
17.8
18.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
50%
42%
58%
38%
25%
50%
40%
46%
35%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
62%
75%
50%
60%
54%
65%
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.3
9.9
3.1
3.4
2.9
21.8
22.6
20.9
vs Stronger (36)
9.4
8.5
10.3
3.2
3.3
3.1
21.8
22.4
21.2
vs Similar (14)
10.1
11.3
9.0
2.9
3.4
2.4
21.8
23.3
20.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
44%
52%
44%
48%
40%
52%
60%
44%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
56%
52%
60%
48%
40%
56%
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Crewe
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Harrogate
10.2
Swindon
10.1
Tranmere
10.1
Barrow
10.1
Grimsby
10.0
Sutton
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
10.0
Mansfield
9.9
Carlisle
9.8
Salford
9.8
Walsall
9.7
Rochdale
9.6
Stevenage
9.6
Crawley Town
9.5
Colchester
9.4
Northampton
9.4
Doncaster
9.3
Stockport
9.1
Newport County
9.1
Hartlepool
9.1
Leyton Orient
8.6
Gillingham
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AFC Wimbledon
4.4
Barrow
4.1
Leyton Orient
3.9
Northampton
3.9
Colchester
3.9
Swindon
3.8
Mansfield
3.7
Sutton
3.4
Stockport
3.4
Carlisle
3.3
Newport County
3.3
Gillingham
3.3
Salford
3.2
Bradford
3.2
Walsall
3.2
Tranmere
3.2
Crewe
3.1
Rochdale
3.1
Grimsby
3.0
Harrogate
3.0
Stevenage
2.9
Crawley Town
2.8
Doncaster
2.7
Hartlepool
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AFC Wimbledon
25.7
Barrow
23.6
Salford
23.6
Northampton
23.5
Sutton
23.2
Bradford
23.2
Leyton Orient
23.1
Colchester
23.0
Walsall
23.0
Grimsby
23.0
Crewe
22.9
Stockport
22.9
Mansfield
22.7
Crawley Town
22.6
Gillingham
22.5
Stevenage
22.0
Swindon
22.0
Rochdale
21.8
Tranmere
21.8
Newport County
21.6
Doncaster
21.1
Hartlepool
20.8
Harrogate
20.1
Carlisle
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
53.4%
Under 9.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
42.8%
Under 21.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hartlepool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.53
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
0.68
0.31
0.54
0.44
0.89
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.47
0.67
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (23)
0.48
0.78
0.45
0.64
0.50
0.92
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hartlepool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.17
0.33
1.27
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (22)
0.36
1.09
0.23
1.08
0.56
1.11
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.38
1.00
2.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Rochdale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rochdale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (23)
0.39
0.70
0.45
0.91
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rochdale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 25.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5 cards
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Rochdale · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
B. Adeeko33%
Luke Hanannt25%
Ryan East25%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell20%
Z. Silcott-Duberry20%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
D. Brown0%
Daniel Moss0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Daniel Moss50%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling25%
Sam Sherring25%
D. Brown25%
Kaiden Wilson25%
H. Gilmour20%
Nils Ramming20%
Luke Hanannt0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
E. Francis0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
B. Adeeko0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryan East25%
D. Brown25%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe20%
H. Gilmour0%
Luke Hanannt0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Luke Hanannt25%
D. Brown25%
H. Gilmour0%
Emmanuel Dieseruvwe0%
Ryan East0%
Ethan Ebanks-Landell0%
Tobi Adebayo-Rowling0%
E. Francis0%
Sam Sherring0%
Kane Taylor0%
Z. Silcott-Duberry0%
Daniel Moss0%
B. Adeeko0%
Kaiden Wilson0%
Nils Ramming0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
SAL (26)
€8m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CRE (20)
€4m
SWI (22)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
TRA (21)
€4m
COL (20)
€4m
CT (19)
€3m
NOR (18)
€3m
GIL (16)
€3m
WAL (20)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
NC (16)
€2m
BAR (11)
€2m
HAR (14)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
CAR (1)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
Hartlepool's squad is €2m less valuable than Rochdale's (€1m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LO (6)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
SAL (9)
€3m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
SWI (8)
€2m
CRE (6)
€2m
CT (7)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
COL (7)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
GRI (8)
€1m
TRA (7)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
NOR (5)
€1m
WAL (4)
€1m
BAR (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
HAR (4)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
SAL (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
GIL (8)
€2m
TRA (6)
€1m
CRE (7)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CT (7)
€1m
BAR (5)
€1m
WAL (5)
€1m
NOR (3)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
HAR (4)
€1m
COL (3)
€0m
NC (3)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (1)
€0m
CAR (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STO (11)
€4m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
SAL (12)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
COL (10)
€2m
WAL (11)
€2m
CRE (7)
€1m
NC (10)
€1m
TRA (8)
€1m
SWI (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
GIL (4)
€1m
CT (5)
€1m
BAR (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€0m
CAR (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
SUT (0)
€0m
Hartlepool and Rochdale have a similar defence value (both €0m).
England: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League Two stats & trends →
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Leyton Orient
Stevenage
Northampton
Stockport
Carlisle
Bradford
Salford
Mansfield
Barrow
Swindon
Grimsby
Tranmere
Crewe
Sutton
Newport County
Walsall
Gillingham
Doncaster
Harrogate
Colchester
AFC Wimbledon
Crawley Town