Hartlepool vs Sutton Result & Analysis

The contest between Hartlepool and Sutton is a tight one, with the model favouring a Hartlepool victory. The odds are 39% for a home win, 31% for a draw and 30% for an away win, so the outcome is finely balanced. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance. Hartlepool, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.83 goals for and 1.33 against, while Sutton on the road averages 1.67 for and 1.33 against.

The model’s selections include a 97.1% chance of under 5.5 cards, 91.9% for under 4.5 cards, 86.1% for under 25.5 fouls, 80.8% for under 3.5 goals, 80.5% for under 3.5 cards, 75.7% for under 11.5 corners and 74.9% for under 23.5 fouls. Each pick is presented with its probability and no other outcome is attached to it.

The 1-1 draw shocked the pre-match favourite, Hartlepool, who had been tipped to win with a 39% probability. The model’s call was wrong, as the match finished level. Hartlepool’s recent form - three straight defeats before a win - was a stark contrast to Sutton’s five-match run that included four victories after a loss. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 5.5 cards at 97.1%, Under 4.5 cards at 91.9%, Under 25.5 fouls at 86.1%, Under 3.5 at 80.8%, Under 3.5 cards at 80.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.7%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 74.9%. These outcomes confirm the game was low-intensity and disciplined.