The match between HB II and Hoyvík is expected to be an away win, with Hoyvík having a 58% chance of taking the three points. The expected total number of goals is 3.1, suggesting an open and attacking game. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%.
HB II's recent form has been inconsistent, with two straight defeats, while Hoyvík comes into this match after a win. At home, HB II has averaged 0.93 goals scored and 2.87 conceded against stronger opponents. Conversely, Hoyvík has averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a 58% chance of success. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 selection, with an 82.4% probability. The home win percentage is 19%, the draw percentage is 23%, and the away win percentage is 58%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as HB II, riding a win to lift their recent form, overturned the pre-match favourite, Hoyvík, with a 5-0 triumph. The model had tipped an away win at 58 % probability, but the outcome was a home win, so the pick was wrong. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 (98.6 %) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5 %) hit, Under 6.5 (96.1 %) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9 %) hit, and Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %) missed, Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 %) missed, and Away +2 handicap (92.6 %) missed. The final score of 5-0 confirmed the home side’s dominance.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
HB II win✓ Hit
19.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík win✗ Miss
57.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HB II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.83
1.13
2.80
0.93
2.87
vs Stronger (23)
0.70
2.70
0.58
2.42
0.82
3.00
vs Similar (7)
2.14
3.29
3.33
4.33
1.25
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hoyvík
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.87
0.93
1.93
1.00
1.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.75
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (10)
0.80
2.20
0.75
2.75
0.83
1.83
vs Weaker (16)
1.12
1.69
1.11
1.56
1.14
1.86
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (HB II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.1%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
6.6%
0-3
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
HB II goals ↓
Hoyvík goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
8.1%
9.1%
6.1%
3.1%
1
3.9%
11%
9.9%
6.6%
3.3%
2
2.7%
5.4%
5.4%
3.6%
1.8%
3
1.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.3%
0.7%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HB II goals (down), columns = Hoyvík goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
B71
2.75
Víkingur II
2.62
Suduroy
2.38
ÍF II
2.14
TB
1.56
Hoyvík
1.12
HB II
0.78
B36 II
0.75
NSÍ II
0.43
EB / Streymur II
0.12
HB II is 0.35 points worse than Hoyvík in terms of average points per game (0.78 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
B71
3.88
ÍF II
3.43
Víkingur II
3.12
Suduroy
2.88
TB
2.33
B36 II
2.00
HB II
1.33
EB / Streymur II
1.00
NSÍ II
0.86
Hoyvík
0.75
HB II is 0.58 goals better than Hoyvík in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 0.75).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Suduroy
0.62
B71
1.00
Víkingur II
1.25
Hoyvík
2.00
ÍF II
2.00
HB II
2.11
TB
2.33
B36 II
3.12
EB / Streymur II
3.50
NSÍ II
3.71
HB II is 0.11 goals worse than Hoyvík in terms of goals conceded per game (2.11 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HB II or Draw✓ Hit
42.4%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers HB II + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HB II or Hoyvík✓ Hit
76.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers HB II + Hoyvík
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hoyvík✗ Miss
80.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
23%
58%
covers Draw + Hoyvík
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HB II over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
Under
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.7%
Under
70.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
86.5%
Under
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HB II, so a minus line means HB II give that many goals of a start and Hoyvík receive them. At -1, HB II must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HB II win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HB II)Actual: HB II
HB II -2
2.1%
Draw -2
5.3%
Hoyvík +2
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (HB II)Actual: HB II
HB II -1
7.4%
Draw -1
11.7%
Hoyvík +1
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (HB II)Actual: HB II
HB II +1
42.4%
Draw +1
22.4%
Hoyvík -1
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (HB II)Actual: HB II
HB II +2
64.8%
Draw +2
17.8%
Hoyvík -2
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HB II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.27
0.60
1.53
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
1.17
0.25
1.33
0.45
1.00
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.57
2.00
2.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hoyvík
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.38
0.81
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.18
0.20
1.40
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.53
0.44
0.56
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (HB II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.2%
Under 0.5
26.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
Under 1.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HB II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HB II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.57
0.53
1.27
0.47
1.87
vs Stronger (23)
0.35
1.52
0.33
1.08
0.36
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.71
1.33
2.00
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hoyvík
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
1.07
0.50
1.12
0.36
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.36
1.00
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
1.07
0.67
1.00
0.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (HB II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.2%
Under 0.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.4%
Under 1.5
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HB II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HB II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 3.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Faroe-Islands: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Faroe-Islands: 1. Deild stats & trends →