Heerenveen is the clear favourite to win at home, with the model predicting a 64% chance of a home win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model's selection is a home win, and it's no surprise given Heerenveen's impressive home form, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opponents. PEC Zwolle, on the other hand, struggles away from home, scoring an average of 1.44 goals and conceding 3.22.
The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Heerenveen, with a probability of 9.8%. Heerenveen's home scoring and conceding statistics suggest they'll be the dominant force in this match.
The model's suggested selections include a home or draw (87.9% probability), over 1.5 goals (85.4% probability), and home or away (83.1% probability). The home win percentage is 64%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 15%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Heerenveen, the pre-match favourite with a 64 % chance of victory, fell short, losing 0-2 to PEC Zwolle. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The pre-match favourite was Heerenveen, with a 64 % probability, and the model’s selection was incorrect. The suggested picks all settled: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.3 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.4 %, Under 7.5 hit at 95.9 %, Home +2 handicap missed at 95.5 %, Home over 0.5 goals missed at 93.5 %, Away under 1.5 HT goals hit at 92.9 %, and Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 92.5 %. The match ended 0-2, with PEC Zwolle winning.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Heerenveen win✗ Miss
64.1%
Avg Implied 60.0% · @ 1.57
Edge
+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.61
Dafabet
1.60
Superbet
1.59
1xBet
1.58
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.45
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.70
Pinnacle
4.68
Dafabet
4.60
Unibet
4.60
1xBet
4.58
PEC Zwolle win✓ Hit
15.4%
Avg Implied 18.9% · @ 4.98
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Pinnacle
5.20
1xBet
5.19
Betano
5.10
Unibet
5.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Heerenveen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.60
1.92
1.08
1.47
2.00
vs Stronger (9)
1.33
2.11
1.25
1.25
1.40
2.80
vs Similar (20)
1.75
1.40
2.12
1.00
1.50
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.17
1.40
1.20
1.47
3.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.50
0.80
1.60
1.00
3.40
vs Similar (19)
1.58
2.05
1.70
1.00
1.44
3.22
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.6%
@ 1.12+1.7%
Under 1.5
14.4%
@ 5.82-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.13
Unibet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.1%
@ 1.43-0.5%
Under 2.5
34.9%
@ 2.72+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
10Bet
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.1%
@ 2.12-1.4%
Under 3.5
56.9%
@ 1.70+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.21
Betano
2.18
Pinnacle
2.16
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.71
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.50-2.2%
No
40.3%
@ 2.44+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
No
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.50
William Hil
2.45
888Sport
2.45
BetVictor
2.45
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%@ 7.69+3.8%
1-1
9.4%@ 8.48+4.0%
2-0
9.2%@ 9.50+4.4%
3-1
7.4%@ 10.40+3.1%
1-0
7.2%@ 9.90+2.6%
3-0
7.0%@ 12.48+3.4%
2-2
5.2%@ 12.12+1.4%
1-2
4.5%@ 14.39+1.4%
Heerenveen goals ↓
PEC Zwolle goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
2.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
1
7.2%
9.4%
4.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
9.2%
9.8%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.0%
7.4%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.0%
4.3%
2.3%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Heerenveen goals (down), columns = PEC Zwolle goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Heerenveen is 0.33 points better than PEC Zwolle in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.09).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Heerenveen is 0.34 goals better than PEC Zwolle in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Heerenveen is 0.48 goals better than PEC Zwolle in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 2.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heerenveen is 6.3 percentage points better than PEC Zwolle in terms of average possession (51% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Heerenveen
For 5.4 · Against 5.8 · Total 11.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.3 · Total 18.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PEC Zwolle
For 4.1 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Heerenveen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.3
10.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
20.4
19.7
21.0
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
10.4
9.9
2.7
1.8
3.2
19.5
18.0
20.4
vs Similar (34)
10.4
10.1
10.6
3.1
3.5
2.8
21.0
20.3
21.7
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
12.0
7.5
2.0
1.0
2.5
17.3
18.0
17.0
% over line
54%
61%
48%
32%
35%
30%
38%
30%
44%
% under line
46%
39%
52%
68%
65%
70%
62%
70%
56%
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.8
8.8
3.1
3.4
2.8
22.9
24.4
21.4
vs Stronger (18)
9.5
10.1
8.8
2.8
3.2
2.2
22.4
22.7
22.1
vs Similar (31)
9.2
9.6
8.8
3.3
3.5
3.2
23.4
25.5
21.4
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
-
9.0
2.0
-
2.0
14.0
-
14.0
% over line
44%
52%
36%
44%
48%
40%
62%
80%
44%
% under line
56%
48%
64%
56%
52%
60%
38%
20%
56%
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.2
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Sparta Rotterdam
10.8
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Telstar
10.6
Willem II
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.5
ADO Den Haag
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Groningen
10.0
Twente
9.9
NEC Nijmegen
9.8
Ajax
9.8
Utrecht
9.7
Excelsior
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.0
Cambuur
4.0
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.9
Utrecht
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.7
ADO Den Haag
3.7
Ajax
3.7
Twente
3.6
Groningen
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.5
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
Willem II
3.2
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
27.0
Cambuur
26.5
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.7
Utrecht
23.0
PEC Zwolle
22.9
AZ Alkmaar
22.8
Feyenoord
22.7
Willem II
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Ajax
22.1
Excelsior
21.8
Groningen
20.9
Twente
20.4
Heerenveen
20.4
Sparta Rotterdam
20.4
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.58-2.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
@ 2.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Unibet
1.61
Betfair
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Under
Betano
2.32
Pinnacle
2.28
Marathonbet
2.24
1xBet
2.18
Unibet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.9%
@ 2.07-9.7%
Under 3.5
65.1%
@ 1.67+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.08
Superbet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Under
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.64
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
36.8%
@ 1.92-9.6%
Under 21.5
63.2%
@ 1.66+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Under
Superbet
1.66
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Heerenveen or Draw✗ Miss
87.9%
Avg Implied 80.7% · @ 1.17
Edge
+7.2%
64%
21%
15%
covers Heerenveen + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Heerenveen or PEC Zwolle✓ Hit
83.1%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.19
Edge
+4.0%
64%
21%
15%
covers Heerenveen + PEC Zwolle
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Draw or PEC Zwolle✓ Hit
29.0%
Avg Implied 40.2% · @ 2.34
Edge
-11.2%
64%
21%
15%
covers Draw + PEC Zwolle
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.43
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
93.5%
@ 1.07+6.5%
Under
6.5%
@ 7.17-6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Under
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Heerenveen over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
75.6%
@ 1.44+10.9%
Under
24.4%
@ 2.65-10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
Pinnacle
2.77
Betfair
2.75
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
Unibet
2.65
Heerenveen over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
51.3%
@ 2.39+12.2%
Under
48.7%
@ 1.53-12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.47
Betano
2.40
10Bet
2.40
Superbet
2.40
888Sport
2.38
Under
Pinnacle
1.58
Marathonbet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Heerenveen over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
29.2%
@ 4.54+8.8%
Under
70.8%
@ 1.16-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.75
10Bet
4.75
888Sport
4.60
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.6%
@ 1.36-1.7%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.93+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.09
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
888Sport
2.90
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.0%
@ 2.75-4.0%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.41+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.93
1xBet
2.78
Marathonbet
2.78
Superbet
2.77
BetVictor
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 6.84-3.7%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.08+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.10
Marathonbet
7.10
888Sport
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
888Sport
1.08
PEC Zwolle over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 17.81-2.8%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
21.00
Superbet
18.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Heerenveen, so a minus line means Heerenveen give that many goals of a start and PEC Zwolle receive them. At -1, Heerenveen must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Heerenveen win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Heerenveen)Actual: PEC Zwolle
Heerenveen -2
31.1%
@ 4.22+9.9%
Draw -2
19.9%
@ 4.55+0.2%
PEC Zwolle +2
48.9%
@ 1.52-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
10Bet
4.50
Superbet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Unibet
1.54
Betfair
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Handicap -1 (Heerenveen)Actual: PEC Zwolle
Heerenveen -1
51.1%
@ 2.35+13.0%
Draw -1
19.9%
@ 3.77-3.8%
PEC Zwolle +1
29.0%
@ 2.34-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.45
Bet365
2.40
Superbet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.32
Betfair
2.30
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Unibet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Betfair
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Bet365
2.30
Handicap +1 (Heerenveen)Actual: PEC Zwolle
Heerenveen +1
87.9%
@ 1.16+11.0%
Draw +1
7.6%
@ 6.52-6.0%
PEC Zwolle -1
4.5%
@ 9.40-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
10.00
Superbet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Handicap +2 (Heerenveen)Actual: Draw
Heerenveen +2
95.5%
@ 1.04+6.5%
Draw +2
3.2%
@ 12.83-4.0%
PEC Zwolle -2
1.3%
@ 24.67-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
10Bet
9.50
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
26.00
10Bet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.73
0.85
0.62
0.53
0.82
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
0.75
1.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.55
0.88
0.50
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.87
0.93
0.27
0.60
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
0.70
0.60
0.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.95
1.10
0.40
0.67
1.56
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
75.6%
@ 1.22-0.8%
Under 0.5
24.4%
@ 3.94+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.50
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
41.7%
@ 2.09-3.0%
Under 1.5
58.3%
@ 1.69+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.20
SBO
2.19
Pinnacle
2.14
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
Betfair
1.73
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.70
William Hil
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.5%
@ 4.46-3.4%
Under 2.5
82.5%
@ 1.17+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Betano
4.55
Unibet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.45
Under
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
60.2%
@ 1.50-2.1%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.48+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Unibet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
1xBet
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Under
Pinnacle
2.65
10Bet
2.50
Unibet
2.45
1xBet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
23.0%
@ 3.36-4.6%
Under
77.0%
@ 1.28+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.45
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.5%
@ 8.35-3.6%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.04+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Unibet
8.50
Superbet
8.10
Betano
7.90
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
36.8%
@ 2.29-4.0%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.57+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.32
Unibet
2.32
Superbet
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
1xBet
1.61
10Bet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.57
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.1%
@ 7.40-5.5%
Under
92.9%
@ 1.06+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
Unibet
7.50
Superbet
7.40
1xBet
7.30
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.7%
@ 28.00-99.3%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
28.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Heerenveen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.87
1.08
0.46
0.94
1.18
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.89
0.50
0.25
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.85
1.25
0.50
1.00
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (PEC Zwolle) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PEC Zwolle
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.30
0.47
0.93
0.87
1.67
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.68
1.11
0.60
0.60
0.78
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Heerenveen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
84.1%
Under 0.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
55.8%
Under 1.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.5%
Under 2.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Heerenveen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
71.3%
Under
28.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
36.8%
Under
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Heerenveen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PEC Zwolle over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
888Sport
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
95.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
95.5%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
93.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.06
+6.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.9%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Unibet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
90.7%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
888Sport
1.08
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
87.9%
1.17
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+7.2%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
87.9%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+11.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
85.6%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.14
Pinnacle
1.14
888Sport
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
83.1%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.5%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
81.8%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.26
-
-
-
+11.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
81.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
75.6%
1.44
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
+10.9%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.6%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-0.8%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
70.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
Betfair
1.17
-8.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.0%
1.41
10Bet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
+4.0%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Heerenveen
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jacob Trenskow50%
Luca Oyen33%
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Luca Oyen33%
Dirk Wanner Proper25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Dylan Vente0%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Vente25%
Sam Kersten25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Maxence Rivera0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
Oliver Braude0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maxence Rivera33%
Oliver Braude33%
Dylan Vente25%
Jacob Trenskow25%
Sam Kersten0%
Ringo Meerveld0%
Vasilios Zagaritis0%
Dirk Wanner Proper0%
Luca Oyen0%
Marcus Linday0%
Maas Willemsen0%
Bernt Klaverboer0%
PEC Zwolle
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nick Viergever25%
Koen Kostons25%
Elias Sørensen25%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Gabriel Reiziger33%
Ryan Thomas25%
Koen Kostons25%
Olivier Aertssen25%
Nick Viergever0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dylan Mbayo25%
Thijs Oosting25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Koen Kostons0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Koen Kostons25%
Nick Viergever0%
Ryan Thomas0%
Dylan Mbayo0%
Simon Graves0%
Jasper Schendelaar0%
Odysseus Velanas0%
Thijs Oosting0%
Elias Sørensen0%
Tobias Sommer0%
Olivier Aertssen0%
Ibrahim Cissoko0%
Damian van der Haar0%
Gabriel Reiziger0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Heerenveen's squad is €29m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€50m vs €21m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Heerenveen's attack is €16m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€24m vs €8m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Heerenveen's midfield is €2m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€6m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Heerenveen's defence is €11m more valuable than PEC Zwolle's (€20m vs €10m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur