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Hegelmann II vs Atmosfera Result & Analysis

Date: 16/03/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-1
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera win✗ Miss
32.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W40W23L02L02L10W12L21W04L11DA·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10H·NEP03/11A·NEV08/11A·NEV07/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.901.431.361.062.38
vs Stronger (12)0.832.251.002.400.712.14
vs Similar (10)1.901.702.200.201.603.20
vs Weaker (8)1.001.621.001.501.001.75
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L12L11D23L20W01L10W21W00D10WH·TAU14/09H·PAN20/09A·KAU28/09H·FA 05/10A·BFA13/10H·EKR19/10A·GAR26/10H·MIN02/11A·BAB08/11H·KAU07/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.171.471.271.471.07
vs Stronger (23)1.481.261.551.451.421.08
vs Similar (7)1.430.861.250.751.671.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.9%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Atmosfera goals →
01234
09.0%8.2%5.8%2.3%0.7%
19.1%14%7.7%3.1%1.0%
26.9%8.5%5.2%2.1%0.6%
33.1%3.8%2.3%0.9%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Atmosfera goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Hegelmann II is 0.57 points worse than Atmosfera in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Hegelmann II is 0.57 goals worse than Atmosfera in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Hegelmann II is 0.57 goals worse than Atmosfera in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 1.13).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W01L01L00D10W01L11D04L01LA·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10H·NEP03/11A·NEV08/11A·NEV07/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.710.570.311.25
vs Stronger (12)0.251.250.401.000.141.43
vs Similar (10)0.800.801.000.200.601.40
vs Weaker (8)0.500.620.750.500.250.75
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L11D21W10W00D10W10W00D10WH·TAU14/09H·PAN20/09A·KAU28/09H·FA 05/10A·BFA13/10H·EKR19/10A·GAR26/10H·MIN02/11A·BAB08/11H·KAU07/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.530.870.600.330.47
vs Stronger (23)0.520.571.000.730.080.42
vs Similar (7)0.860.430.500.251.330.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W30W22D01L02L00D11D10W00D10WA·KAU16/09H·FA 23/09A·BFA28/09H·EKR04/10A·GAR11/10H·MIN20/10A·BAB26/10H·NEP03/11A·NEV08/11A·NEV07/03
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.970.710.790.751.12
vs Stronger (12)0.581.000.601.400.570.71
vs Similar (10)1.100.901.200.001.001.80
vs Weaker (8)0.501.000.251.000.751.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Atmosfera) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W00D02L10W01L00D11D00D00DH·TAU14/09H·PAN20/09A·KAU28/09H·FA 05/10A·BFA13/10H·EKR19/10A·GAR26/10H·MIN02/11A·BAB08/11H·KAU07/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.630.600.671.130.60
vs Stronger (23)0.960.700.550.731.330.67
vs Similar (7)0.570.430.750.500.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atmosfera over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Atmosfera have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Atmosfera have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Atmosfera have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Hegelmann II and Atmosfera have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
HI wins
0
Draws
1
ATM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann II vs Atmosfera · H/A from HI
DateH/AGameScore
31/08/24AAtmosfera Vs HI2-1
07/04/24HHI Vs Atmosfera3-0

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25ANevėžis Vs HI1-1
08/11/24ANevėžis Vs HI4-0
03/11/24HHI Vs Neptūną Klaipėda2-1
26/10/24ABabrungas Vs HI2-1
20/10/24HHI Vs Minija1-0
11/10/24AGarliava Vs HI2-0
04/10/24HHI Vs Ekranas0-2
28/09/24ABFA Vs HI3-2
23/09/24HHI Vs FA Šiauliai II4-0
16/09/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs HI0-2

AtmosferaAtmosfera

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/25HATM Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-0
08/11/24ABabrungas Vs ATM0-0
02/11/24HATM Vs Minija2-1
26/10/24AGarliava Vs ATM0-1
19/10/24HATM Vs Ekranas0-1
13/10/24ABFA Vs ATM0-2
05/10/24HATM Vs FA Šiauliai II2-3
28/09/24AKauno Žalgiris II Vs ATM1-1
20/09/24HATM Vs Panevėžys II1-2
14/09/24HATM Vs Tauras1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLD1.13
HomeWWLWW1.73
AwayLLLLD0.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%53%12%
AVG goals3.162.873.44
Over 1.5 %90%80%100%
Over 2.5 %61%53%69%
Over 3.5 %42%33%50%
Scored1.231.401.06
Conceded1.941.472.38
BTTS45%27%62%
Clean Sheet26%47%6%
Corners---
Cards---
Atmosfera
Atmosfera
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWDW1.40
HomeLLLWW1.40
AwayWDWWD1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%44%40%
AVG goals3.102.963.24
Over 1.5 %80%76%84%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %30%32%28%
Scored1.401.441.36
Conceded1.701.521.88
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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