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Hegelmann II vs Be1 NFA Result & Analysis

Date: 13/06/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Vs
36%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Hegelmann II win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA win✓ Hit
35.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D21W12L02L11D21W11D01L34L05LH·ATM16/03A·EKR30/03H·BFA04/04A·KAU18/04A·JON26/04H·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.871.291.431.002.25
vs Stronger (12)0.832.171.172.170.502.17
vs Similar (11)1.641.821.670.671.603.20
vs Weaker (7)0.861.430.501.501.001.40
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L30W03L01L01L13L42W01L03L11DH·BAB04/04A·EUF13/04A·NEP18/04A·TAU26/04A·KAZ30/04H·NEV02/05A·ATM10/05H·EKR16/05A·BFA24/05H·KAU01/06
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.201.800.800.931.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.001.501.601.400.401.60
vs Weaker (20)1.551.051.900.501.201.60
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.4%
Under 1.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.1%
Under 2.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.9%
Under 3.5
70.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
No
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.3%
1-2 ✓
8.3%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.5%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
Hegelmann II goals ↓
Be1 NFA goals →
01234
07.5%7.5%6.0%2.8%0.9%
17.6%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.1%8.3%5.7%2.6%0.9%
32.8%3.8%2.6%1.2%0.4%
41.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hegelmann II goals (down), columns = Be1 NFA goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Hegelmann II is 0.03 points better than Be1 NFA in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Hegelmann II and Be1 NFA are level in goals scored per game (both 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Hegelmann II and Be1 NFA are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.70).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D02L02L00D10W11D01L13L02LH·ATM16/03A·EKR30/03H·BFA04/04A·KAU18/04A·JON26/04H·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.371.070.500.710.251.38
vs Stronger (12)0.251.080.500.830.001.33
vs Similar (11)0.551.180.670.670.401.80
vs Weaker (7)0.290.860.000.500.401.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D02L02L00D00D02L22D00D01L11DH·JON28/03H·BAB04/04A·NEP18/04A·TAU26/04A·KAZ30/04H·NEV02/05A·ATM10/05H·EKR16/05A·BFA24/05H·KAU01/06
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.600.750.440.430.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.400.700.600.800.200.60
vs Weaker (20)0.700.550.820.270.560.89
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W10W00D11D11D00D00D21W03LH·ATM16/03A·EKR30/03H·BFA04/04A·KAU18/04A·JON26/04H·PAN03/05A·FA 09/05H·MIN18/05A·ŽAL26/05H·TRA01/06
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.800.790.710.750.88
vs Stronger (12)0.581.080.671.330.500.83
vs Similar (11)1.090.641.000.001.201.40
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.501.000.600.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Be1 NFA) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W01L01L01L11D20W01L02L00DH·JON28/03H·BAB04/04A·NEP18/04A·TAU26/04A·KAZ30/04H·NEV02/05A·ATM10/05H·EKR16/05A·BFA24/05H·KAU01/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.671.120.440.360.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.600.801.000.600.201.00
vs Weaker (20)0.850.601.180.360.440.89
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hegelmann II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hegelmann II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hegelmann II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Be1 NFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.1%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
HI wins
0
Draws
2
BN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Hegelmann II vs Be1 NFA · H/A from HI
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/24ABe1 NFA Vs HI2-0
07/03/24HHI Vs Be1 NFA1-3

Hegelmann IIHegelmann II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/25HHI Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-5
26/05/25AŽalgiris II Vs HI4-3
18/05/25HHI Vs Minija0-1
09/05/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs HI1-1
03/05/25HHI Vs Panevėžys II2-1
26/04/25AJonava Vs HI1-1
18/04/25AKauno Žalgiris II Vs HI2-0
04/04/25HHI Vs BFA1-2
30/03/25AEkranas Vs HI1-2
16/03/25HHI Vs Atmosfera1-1

Be1 NFABe1 NFA

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/25HBN Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-1
24/05/25ABFA Vs BN3-0
16/05/25HBN Vs Ekranas0-1
10/05/25AAtmosfera Vs BN2-4
02/05/25HBN Vs Nevėžis1-3
30/04/25AKazlų Rūda Kaunas Vs BN1-0
26/04/25ATauras Vs BN1-0
18/04/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs BN3-0
13/04/25AEuforija Vs BN0-3
04/04/25HBN Vs Babrungas1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Hegelmann II
Hegelmann II
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLLL1.07
HomeDLWLL1.50
AwayWLDDL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%45%14%
AVG goals3.122.853.38
Over 1.5 %90%80%100%
Over 2.5 %59%55%62%
Over 3.5 %37%30%43%
Scored1.201.251.14
Conceded1.931.602.24
BTTS51%35%67%
Clean Sheet20%35%5%
Corners---
Cards---
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD1.64
HomeDLLLD2.04
AwayLLLWL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%60%36%
AVG goals2.602.602.60
Over 1.5 %74%80%68%
Over 2.5 %48%48%48%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.521.801.24
Conceded1.080.801.36
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet32%36%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
-
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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