The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 4.7 goals and a 34% chance of six or more. The most likely scoreline is 2-2, carrying a 6.8% probability, and the model favours an away win. Home side HK Kopavogur, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 3.5 goals scored and concedes none, while Vikingur Reykjavik, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.33 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. Home win probability sits at 35%, a draw at 20%, and an away win at 46%. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 (95.5%), Away over 0.5 goals (92.0%), Under 7.5 (89.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (81.7%), and Away +2 handicap (80.5%). The model also lists Over 2.5 (85.1%), BTTS Yes (82.4%), and Home over 0.5 goals (89.0%) with their respective probabilities. All selections are presented with their exact percentages, and no other outcomes are given win probabilities.
Results analysis
HK Kopavogur’s recent run of WDWLL ended with a 0-2 loss to Vikingur Reykjavik, who were also coming off a win. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the model’s pick of an away win, a 46% favourite, and the prediction proved correct. The total goals fell far short of the expected 4.7, with the match featuring only two goals. The model’s selections performed variably: Over 1.5 (95.5%) hit, Away over 0.5 goals (92.0%) hit, Under 7.5 (89.3%) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (89.0%) missed, Over 2.5 (85.1%) missed, BTTS Yes (82.4%) missed, Home under 3.5 goals (81.7%) hit, and Away +2 handicap (80.5%) hit.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HK Kopavogur win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
19.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik win✓ Hit
45.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HK Kopavogur
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
1.70
2.60
1.40
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
4.00
1.00
3.50
0.00
4.50
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.91
1.96
2.45
1.73
1.42
2.17
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.67
2.50
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.20
2.56
1.00
1.86
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.33
3.40
1.20
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (19)
2.21
1.05
2.10
1.00
2.33
1.11
Clean sheet %
40% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (34%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.5%
Under 1.5
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
85.1%
Under 2.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.6%
Under 3.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
82.4%
No
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-2
6.8%
1-2
6.2%
2-3
5.8%
2-1
5.4%
1-1
5.4%
1-3
5.2%
3-2
5.0%
3-3
4.2%
HK Kopavogur goals ↓
Vikingur Reykjavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
1.7%
2.8%
2.4%
1.5%
1
1.4%
5.4%
6.2%
5.2%
3.3%
2
2.1%
5.4%
6.8%
5.8%
3.6%
3
1.6%
4.0%
5.0%
4.2%
2.7%
4
0.9%
2.2%
2.8%
2.3%
1.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HK Kopavogur goals (down), columns = Vikingur Reykjavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
HK Kopavogur is 2.00 points better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
HK Kopavogur is 3.50 goals better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
HK Kopavogur is 1.50 goals better than Vikingur Reykjavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HK Kopavogur or Draw✗ Miss
54.2%
Avg Implied -
35%
20%
46%
covers HK Kopavogur + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
80.3%
Avg Implied -
35%
20%
46%
covers HK Kopavogur + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vikingur Reykjavik✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
20%
46%
covers Draw + Vikingur Reykjavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
64.8%
Under
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
38.0%
Under
62.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
18.3%
Under
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.0%
Under
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.8%
Under
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
46.3%
Under
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HK Kopavogur, so a minus line means HK Kopavogur give that many goals of a start and Vikingur Reykjavik receive them. At -1, HK Kopavogur must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HK Kopavogur win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.57
1.00
0.50
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.67
1.80
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.53
0.60
0.50
1.22
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HK Kopavogur
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.03
1.47
0.87
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (4)
2.75
0.25
2.00
0.00
3.50
0.50
vs Similar (23)
0.96
1.30
1.36
1.18
0.58
1.42
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Vikingur Reykjavik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vikingur Reykjavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.63
1.56
0.50
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (9)
1.22
0.67
1.60
0.60
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.53
1.50
0.50
1.11
0.56
Clean sheet %
50% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (HK Kopavogur) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HK Kopavogur over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HK Kopavogur over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vikingur Reykjavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.5%
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-
-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.3%
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-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Under 6.5
79.9%
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✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
75.2%
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✓ Hit
Away over 1.5 goals
71.8%
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-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
71.5%
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-
-
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-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →