HNK Hajduk Split is expected to emerge victorious, with a recent-form note suggesting they're coming off a draw. However, their away form against weaker opponents has seen them concede an average of 1.1 goals per match. Meanwhile, HNK Gorica's home form against stronger opponents has seen them score an average of 1.08 goals per match and concede 1.5 goals.
The most likely match result is an away win for HNK Hajduk Split, with a 54% probability. The model predicts a total of 2 goals, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12.4%. The expected total number of goals is 2.7.
The model's selection is an away win, with home win and draw percentages at 20% and 26%, respectively, and an away win percentage of 54%. The model's suggested picks include Over 21.5 fouls at 82.7%, Over 1.5 at 76.8% with a 3% edge, and Under 3.5 at 70.8% with a 2% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends HNK Hajduk Split's run, as they secured a 1-2 victory away from home, a result that was predicted by the Pythia model. The model correctly identified the away win as the most likely outcome, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The final score of 1-2 reflected the model's prediction of a narrow margin, as the most likely score was 1-1, with a 13.3% probability. The model's selection of an away win was correct. The model's suggested picks largely came in, with all three selections hitting: Over 21.5 fouls (83.2% probability), Under 3.5 (75.8% probability), and Over 1.5 (72.4% probability).
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šÆ 1. Model Analysis
HNK Gorica winā Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.35
Edge
+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.70
Pinnacle
4.62
Betano
4.55
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.45
Drawā Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.59
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.85
Marathonbet
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.65
HNK Hajduk Split winā Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied 53.2% · @ 1.73
Edge
-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
SBO
1.82
Betano
1.75
Dafabet
1.75
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
ā½ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.43
1.24
1.35
0.77
1.54
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.50
1.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.12
1.38
1.22
1.22
1.00
1.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Hajduk Split
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.33
2.00
1.07
1.62
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.73
2.00
0.75
1.00
2.29
vs Weaker (19)
2.05
1.11
2.00
1.20
2.11
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
@ 1.24-2.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
@ 3.68+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Under
BetVictor
3.90
Pinnacle
3.88
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
@ 1.81-6.1%
Under 2.5
54.5%
@ 1.94+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.90
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Betfair
1.85
Pinnacle
1.83
Under
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
@ 2.98-6.9%
Under 3.5
75.8%
@ 1.35+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.15
888Sport
3.10
Pinnacle
3.09
BetVictor
3.00
Under
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
@ 1.74-3.5%
No
50.5%
@ 1.96+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Unibet
1.73
No
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
BetVictor
2.00
Betano
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.37+6.4%
0-1
11.5%@ 6.57+4.9%
0-2
9.9%@ 7.59+4.1%
0-0
9.4%@ 10.01+5.1%
1-2 ā
9.4%@ 7.20+3.3%
1-0
6.6%@ 11.24+2.7%
2-1
5.7%@ 12.45+2.2%
0-3
5.1%@ 12.37+1.5%
HNK Gorica goals ↓
HNK Hajduk Split goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.4%
12%
9.9%
5.1%
2.0%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
3.7%
5.7%
4.4%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Gorica goals (down), columns = HNK Hajduk Split goals (across).
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šŖ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
š Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
HNK Gorica is 0.75 points worse than HNK Hajduk Split in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.89).
āļø Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
HNK Gorica is 0.58 goals worse than HNK Hajduk Split in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.69).
š”ļø Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
HNK Gorica is 0.33 goals worse than HNK Hajduk Split in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
ā±ļø Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
HNK Gorica is 12.1 percentage points worse than HNK Hajduk Split in terms of average possession (46% vs 58%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HNK Gorica or Drawā Miss
50.0%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.03
Edge
+4.2%
22%
28%
50%
covers HNK Gorica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.12
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
HNK Gorica or HNK Hajduk Splitā Hit
72.0%
Avg Implied 75.2% · @ 1.23
Edge
-3.2%
22%
28%
50%
covers HNK Gorica + HNK Hajduk Split
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw or HNK Hajduk Splitā Hit
78.0%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.17
Edge
-1.0%
22%
28%
50%
covers Draw + HNK Hajduk Split
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
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š„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
āļø 7. Handicap
ā±ļø 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.71
0.65
0.46
0.77
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.75
0.78
0.56
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Hajduk Split
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.70
0.93
0.71
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.25
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (19)
1.05
0.63
1.20
0.70
0.89
0.56
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ā±ļø 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.73
0.53
0.71
0.31
0.77
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.86
0.62
0.75
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.62
0.44
0.67
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Hajduk Split) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Hajduk Split
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.07
0.36
0.94
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.91
1.75
0.00
0.57
1.43
vs Weaker (19)
1.00
0.47
0.80
0.50
1.22
0.44
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
š„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Hajduk Split over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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š„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Draw or Away
78.0%
1.17
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
888Sport
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-1.0%
ā Hit
Under 3.5
75.8%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
+6.9%
ā Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.9%
1.26
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
+0.1%
ā Hit
Over 1.5
72.4%
1.24
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
888Sport
1.25
-2.4%
ā Hit
Home or Away
72.0%
1.23
Bet365
1.28
Betano
1.27
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-3.2%
ā Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
ā Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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š° 14. Squad value
š° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
HNK Gorica's squad is €25m less valuable than HNK Hajduk Split's (€9m vs €34m).
āļø Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
HNK Gorica's attack is €11m less valuable than HNK Hajduk Split's (€4m vs €15m).
š§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
HNK Gorica's midfield is €6m less valuable than HNK Hajduk Split's (€2m vs €8m).
š”ļø Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
HNK Gorica's defence is €8m less valuable than HNK Hajduk Split's (€3m vs €11m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Rijeka
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo