The model’s edge lies in its confidence that HNK Rijeka will win away, a 49% chance versus a 23% home win and 28% draw. That 49% favoured result is the single most likely outcome, and the model’s pick is the away win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly low-scoring game, with the most probable total being two goals at 27%. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability, and that is the only scoreline to mention.
HNK Gorica, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. HNK Rijeka, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. Recent form shows Gorica struggling with five straight losses and a 0-2 defeat, while Rijeka has just come off a 1-4 loss away.
The model’s suggested picks, all with probabilities, are: Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.2% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (97.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5% with a 6% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (96.0% with a 9% edge).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win for HNK Rijeka, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised many. The model had given Rijeka a 50% chance of victory, but the result proved otherwise. Every selection from the model’s slate was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7%, Under 5.5 at 97.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 96.0%. All were hits, confirming the model’s low-scoring bias. The match, however, delivered a goalless stalemate, leaving the favourite’s 50% probability unfulfilled.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
HNK Gorica win✗ Miss
21.9%
Avg Implied 17.9% · @ 5.12
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.92
William Hil
5.50
Dafabet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.30
Draw✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.62
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.66
1xBet
3.66
HNK Rijeka win✗ Miss
50.3%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.62
Edge
-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Dafabet
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.64
Pinnacle
1.64
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.37
1.25
1.19
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.43
1.25
1.38
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.06
1.31
1.25
1.00
0.88
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.10
1.53
1.13
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.75
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (18)
1.50
0.94
2.00
0.89
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.8%
@ 1.27-0.0%
Under 1.5
27.2%
@ 3.42+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.1%
@ 1.90-3.3%
Under 2.5
53.9%
@ 1.85+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Bet365
1.95
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Under
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
SBO
1.86
Bet365
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.6%
@ 3.23-4.1%
Under 3.5
75.4%
@ 1.30+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Pinnacle
3.35
10Bet
3.25
Under
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.8%
@ 1.83-0.3%
No
50.2%
@ 1.84+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.90
Betfair
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
No
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.85
Betano
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.41+6.5%
0-1
11.4%@ 5.91+4.1%
0-2
9.8%@ 6.83+3.5%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.17+3.4%
0-0 ✓
9.3%@ 9.40+4.7%
1-0
6.5%@ 11.93+2.9%
2-1
5.8%@ 14.27+2.7%
0-3
5.1%@ 11.03+1.2%
HNK Gorica goals ↓
HNK Rijeka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
11%
9.8%
5.1%
2.0%
1
6.5%
13%
9.4%
4.9%
1.9%
2
3.7%
5.8%
4.5%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Gorica goals (down), columns = HNK Rijeka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.14
Rudes
1.11
NK Osijek
0.97
HNK Gorica is 0.33 points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Rudes
1.08
NK Osijek
0.75
HNK Gorica is 0.25 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
Rudes
1.65
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
HNK Gorica is 0.33 goals worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
HNK Gorica is 6.4 percentage points worse than HNK Rijeka in terms of average possession (46% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Gorica
For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.5 · Against 15.6 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
For 6.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Gorica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.4
8.6
4.2
4.7
3.7
25.4
25.8
25.0
vs Stronger (22)
9.9
10.7
8.9
4.4
4.7
4.0
24.7
25.4
23.8
vs Similar (28)
8.2
8.1
8.3
4.0
4.7
3.5
26.0
26.2
25.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
43%
50%
36%
50%
58%
42%
80%
88%
72%
% under line
57%
50%
64%
50%
42%
58%
20%
12%
28%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.1
8.7
4.3
4.3
4.2
25.7
24.8
26.6
vs Stronger (1)
4.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
4.0
20.0
-
20.0
vs Similar (21)
9.6
9.8
9.2
5.1
4.2
6.2
27.9
26.9
29.1
vs Weaker (28)
9.5
10.3
8.7
3.6
4.4
3.0
24.3
23.0
25.4
% over line
54%
58%
50%
62%
68%
56%
79%
75%
83%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
38%
32%
44%
21%
25%
17%
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rudes
9.8
NK Osijek
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.6
Istra 1961
9.5
HNK Rijeka
9.4
NK Varazdin
9.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.2
HNK Gorica
8.9
NK Slaven Belupo
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
4.8
NK Varazdin
4.7
HNK Rijeka
4.6
HNK Hajduk Split
4.5
Istra 1961
4.5
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.2
NK Slaven Belupo
4.0
Rudes
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
HNK Hajduk Split
27.6
NK Osijek
27.0
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.5
HNK Rijeka
25.7
HNK Gorica
25.4
Rudes
25.3
NK Slaven Belupo
25.0
NK Varazdin
24.7
Istra 1961
23.4
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.4%
@ 2.08-1.0%
Under 9.5
56.6%
@ 1.66+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.11
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.00
Under
Superbet
1.72
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.60
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
57.1%
@ 1.64+1.3%
Under 3.5
42.9%
@ 2.07-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.64
Under
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
82.1%
Under 21.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
HNK Gorica or Draw✓ Hit
57.1%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.18
Edge
+14.7%
22%
28%
50%
covers HNK Gorica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.30
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
SBO
2.20
HNK Gorica or HNK Rijeka✗ Miss
68.9%
Avg Implied 75.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
-6.7%
22%
28%
50%
covers HNK Gorica + HNK Rijeka
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Draw or HNK Rijeka✓ Hit
74.0%
Avg Implied 82.0% · @ 1.13
Edge
-8.0%
22%
28%
50%
covers Draw + HNK Rijeka
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
60.7%
@ 1.58+2.1%
Under
39.3%
@ 2.24-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
BetVictor
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.24
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.96+0.5%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.22-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.27
Superbet
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
6.9%
@ 10.80-1.9%
Under
93.1%
@ 1.04+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
10.75
Betfair
10.50
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
HNK Gorica over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 38.00-98.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
35.00
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.0%
@ 1.14-9.7%
Under
28.0%
@ 5.08+9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.30
BetVictor
5.00
Superbet
4.80
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
36.3%
@ 1.75-16.8%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.98+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
BetVictor
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Under
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Bet365
2.00
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.7%
@ 3.37-13.8%
Under
86.3%
@ 1.28+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.59
BetVictor
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Under
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
HNK Rijeka over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 7.36-8.6%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.07+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.20
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to HNK Gorica, so a minus line means HNK Gorica give that many goals of a start and HNK Rijeka receive them. At -1, HNK Gorica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal HNK Gorica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (HNK Gorica)Actual: HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica -2
2.5%
@ 32.50-0.3%
Draw -2
7.0%
@ 15.50+1.0%
HNK Rijeka +2
90.4%
@ 1.02-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
31.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Handicap -1 (HNK Gorica)Actual: HNK Rijeka
HNK Gorica -1
9.6%
@ 10.33+1.1%
Draw -1
16.4%
@ 6.08+2.0%
HNK Rijeka +1
74.0%
@ 1.14-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
6.40
Marathonbet
4.33
Away
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap +1 (HNK Gorica)Actual: HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica +1
57.1%
@ 2.15+16.4%
Draw +1
22.8%
@ 3.38-3.2%
HNK Rijeka -1
20.0%
@ 2.64-13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
10Bet
2.15
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.45
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Away
10Bet
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.64
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Handicap +2 (HNK Gorica)Actual: HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica +2
80.0%
@ 1.39+16.2%
Draw +2
13.0%
@ 4.52-6.6%
HNK Rijeka -2
7.0%
@ 5.30-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.55
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
10Bet
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.75
0.56
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.64
0.62
0.75
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.75
0.88
0.38
0.50
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.47
0.53
0.47
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.17
0.58
0.17
0.67
0.17
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
0.61
0.39
0.78
0.33
0.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.3%
@ 1.37-0.5%
Under 0.5
32.7%
@ 2.87+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.01
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
William Hil
2.90
Superbet
2.90
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
28.7%
@ 2.73-5.3%
Under 1.5
71.3%
@ 1.41+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
Betano
2.87
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.70
Under
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.9%
@ 6.66-4.0%
Under 2.5
90.1%
@ 1.08+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Superbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.5%
@ 2.79+4.3%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.39-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
1xBet
2.88
Betano
2.82
Superbet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 10.50-1.1%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.02+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Marathonbet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 50.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
50.00
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
47.3%
@ 1.70-7.0%
Under
52.7%
@ 2.02+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Pinnacle
1.72
10Bet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.00
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.8%
@ 4.47-7.9%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.17+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.65
Betano
4.55
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 11.42-5.0%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.79
0.62
0.62
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.38
0.62
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.75
0.67
0.83
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.56
1.22
0.56
0.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.1%
@ 1.22-1.7%
Under 0.5
25.9%
@ 3.82+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.96
Marathonbet
3.96
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.1%
@ 2.09-5.3%
Under 1.5
60.9%
@ 1.67+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.20
Superbet
2.10
Betano
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
10Bet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.7%
@ 4.45-6.2%
Under 2.5
85.3%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.80
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
44.4%
@ 2.29+3.9%
Under
55.6%
@ 1.56-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.28
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.0%
@ 7.92+0.3%
Under
88.0%
@ 1.05-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.90
10Bet
7.50
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 31.00-97.7%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
53.7%
@ 1.49-8.5%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.46+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Superbet
1.50
1xBet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Under
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.48
10Bet
2.45
Superbet
2.40
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 3.30-9.9%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.29+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 8.32-6.4%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.70
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.5%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.02
Superbet
1.02
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.07
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
+8.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+6.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
93.1%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
92.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Pinnacle
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+7.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.4%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
-0.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.08
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.0%
1.05
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.2%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.3%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+13.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.29
1xBet
1.29
Superbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
+9.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
1.39
Bet365
1.44
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
+16.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.7%
1.23
Superbet
1.30
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.16
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.5%
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-
-
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
76.0%
1.22
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.4%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.1%
1.22
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Superbet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-1.7%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
74.0%
1.13
Betano
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-8.0%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
74.0%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.8%
1.27
Betano
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-0.0%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
-9.7%
✗ Miss
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.3%
1.41
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
BetVictor
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
+5.3%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HNK Gorica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruno Bogojević40%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Perić20%
Domagoj Pavičić20%
Patrik Mijić20%
Ivan Cvijanović20%
Ante Kavelj20%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Luka Vrzić25%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Bruno Bogojević0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Patrik Mijić0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Patrik Mijić60%
Bruno Bogojević40%
Stefan Perić0%
Jakov Filipović0%
Filip Braut0%
Domagoj Pavičić0%
Davor Matijaš0%
Kevin Custovic0%
Ivan Cvijanović0%
Jakov Pranjic0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Juraj Frigan0%
Stjepan Kučiš0%
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Adu-Adjei33%
Justas Lasickas20%
Jakov Puljić17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Niko Janković0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa Todorović0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel Husić0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko Pavić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jakov Puljić50%
Ivan Ćubelić33%
Anel Husić33%
Alfonso Barco25%
Justas Lasickas20%
Ante Majstorović17%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Niko Janković0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa Todorović0%
Ante Oreč0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko Pavić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tiago Dantas33%
Ante Oreč20%
Toni Fruk17%
Amer Gojak0%
Jakov Puljić0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Niko Janković0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa Todorović0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel Husić0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Daniel Adu-Adjei0%
Branko Pavić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Niko Janković50%
Toni Fruk33%
Jakov Puljić17%
Daniel Adu-Adjei17%
Amer Gojak0%
Ante Majstorović0%
Alfonso Barco0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Tiago Dantas0%
Mladen Devetak0%
Aleksa Todorović0%
Ivan Ćubelić0%
Ante Oreč0%
Samuele Vignato0%
Anel Husić0%
Yusuf Kabadayi0%
Branko Pavić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (34)
€66m
HR (32)
€34m
HHS (29)
€34m
NO (33)
€15m
NV (27)
€11m
I1 (23)
€11m
NLZ (34)
€10m
HG (27)
€9m
NSB (31)
€8m
RUD (27)
€5m
HNK Gorica's squad is €26m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€9m vs €34m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (15)
€33m
HR (15)
€21m
HHS (10)
€15m
NO (16)
€9m
NV (9)
€6m
I1 (10)
€4m
HG (10)
€4m
NSB (10)
€3m
NLZ (8)
€3m
RUD (13)
€3m
HNK Gorica's attack is €17m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€4m vs €21m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HHS (6)
€8m
HR (3)
€5m
NLZ (8)
€3m
I1 (4)
€2m
DZ (2)
€2m
HG (6)
€2m
NSB (6)
€2m
NO (4)
€1m
NV (4)
€1m
RUD (4)
€1m
HNK Gorica's midfield is €4m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€2m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DZ (17)
€30m
HHS (13)
€11m
HR (14)
€8m
NV (14)
€5m
I1 (9)
€5m
NO (13)
€4m
NLZ (18)
€4m
NSB (15)
€3m
HG (11)
€3m
RUD (10)
€1m
HNK Gorica's defence is €5m less valuable than HNK Rijeka's (€3m vs €8m).
Croatia: HNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
Rudes
NK Slaven Belupo