PythiaFootballBETA
HNK Gorica is expected to emerge victorious in this encounter, with a 42% chance of winning, 29% of a draw, and 29% of NK Osijek securing the three points. The model's selection is a home win. A relatively low-scoring affair is anticipated, with an expected total of 2.5 goals and the most likely total being 2 goals. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 13.9% of the time.
In recent form, HNK Gorica has struggled, having suffered three consecutive defeats, while NK Osijek is on a three-game winning streak. At home, HNK Gorica averages 1 goal scored and concedes 1.33 goals per match against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, NK Osijek averages 1 goal scored and concedes 0 goals per match when playing away against weaker opponents.
The model suggests three selections, with Over 21.5 fouls being the most probable, occurring 81% of the time. The other selections include Under 3.5, happening 75.3% of the time, and Over 1.5, occurring 73% of the time. HNK Gorica has a 42% chance of winning, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away win.
The win extends HNK Gorica's recent form, snapping a three-game losing streak. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the actual result, a home win for the team. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's call was a wise one, as the favourite was indeed HNK Gorica. The model's selections largely came in, with Over 21.5 fouls (81% probability) and Under 3.5 goals (75.3% probability) both hitting, as well as Over 1.5 goals (73% probability).
HNK Gorica| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.33 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (19) | 1.00 | 1.42 | 1.00 | 1.55 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
NK Osijek| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.43 | 0.71 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 2.22 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.00 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| NK Osijek goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.3% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
HNK GoricaNK OsijekHNK Gorica| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 25.6 | 25.9 | 25.3 |
| vs Stronger (31) | 8.5 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 25.3 | 25.7 | 24.9 |
| vs Similar (19) | 8.5 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 26.1 | 26.1 | 26.0 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 37% | 44% | 29% | 52% | 60% | 44% | 82% | 88% | 75% |
| % under line | 63% | 56% | 71% | 48% | 40% | 56% | 18% | 12% | 25% |
NK Osijek| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 26.1 | 25.7 | 26.5 |
| vs Stronger (17) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 25.6 | 25.8 | 25.6 |
| vs Similar (23) | 9.5 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 26.4 | 25.2 | 27.3 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 8.1 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 7.0 | 26.5 | 26.8 | 26.2 |
| % over line | 43% | 57% | 31% | 60% | 58% | 62% | 84% | 87% | 81% |
| % under line | 57% | 43% | 69% | 40% | 42% | 38% | 16% | 13% | 19% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 81.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 28/09/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/08/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/04/24 | H | 0-3 |
HNK Gorica| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
NK Osijek| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 7-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 86 | 75% | 2.4 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 42% | 9.6 | 44% | 4.4 | 50% | 24.2 | 61% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 68 | 56% | 1.9 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 2.7 | 81% | 44% | 28% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 57% | 27.1 | 89% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 3 |  NK Varazdin | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 83% | 47% | 28% | 9.6 | 46% | 5.0 | 74% | 25.4 | 83% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 63% | 4.7 | 68% | 26.1 | 86% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 5 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.6 | 89% | 42% | 19% | 8.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 62% | 26.5 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 |  Istra 1961 | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 10.0 | 49% | 4.6 | 72% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 | HNK Gorica | 36 | 41 | 31% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 72% | 44% | 25% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.4 | 51% | 25.0 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 8 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 36% | 7.9 | 23% | 4.4 | 69% | 26.3 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 | NK Osijek | 36 | 35 | 22% | 1.0 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 10.2 | 49% | 5.2 | 71% | 28.3 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 |  Vukovar | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.3 | 57% | 25.9 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 43% |