This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.47
1.79
0.36
1.88
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (29)
1.90
0.38
1.79
0.36
2.00
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.4%
Under 1.5
31.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.6%
Under 2.5
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.2%
Under 3.5
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.3%
1-0
11.1%
0-1
9.2%
2-1 ✓
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.0%
0-2
5.6%
HNK Gorica goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
9.2%
5.6%
2.0%
0.5%
1
11%
14%
7.0%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.8%
8.2%
4.4%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.0%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Gorica goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.81
HNK Rijeka
1.81
HNK Hajduk Split
1.75
NK Varazdin
1.36
Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.33
NK Osijek
1.17
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.08
HNK Gorica
1.03
Sibenik
0.83
HNK Gorica is 0.19 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.03 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
1.92
HNK Hajduk Split
1.36
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
NK Slaven Belupo
1.17
Istra 1961
1.08
HNK Gorica
0.81
Sibenik
0.78
NK Varazdin
0.78
HNK Gorica is 0.03 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (0.81 vs 0.78).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
HNK Rijeka
0.58
NK Varazdin
0.67
HNK Hajduk Split
0.94
Dinamo Zagreb
1.14
Istra 1961
1.17
NK Slaven Belupo
1.25
HNK Gorica
1.42
NK Osijek
1.44
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.50
Sibenik
1.67
HNK Gorica is 0.25 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
60%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Slaven Belupo
51%
NK Varazdin
50%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
NK Osijek
49%
Istra 1961
49%
HNK Rijeka
47%
HNK Gorica
46%
Sibenik
45%
HNK Gorica is 1.2 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (46% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Gorica
For 3.8 · Against 4.3 · Total 8.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 12.7 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 1.5 · Against 10.2 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 12.5 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Gorica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.0
9.2
3.7
4.1
3.2
23.8
24.2
23.2
vs Stronger (23)
8.5
7.8
9.4
3.8
4.6
2.8
21.6
23.8
18.7
vs Similar (27)
8.7
8.2
9.1
3.5
3.6
3.4
25.7
24.7
26.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
32%
46%
44%
50%
38%
69%
80%
58%
% under line
61%
68%
54%
56%
50%
62%
31%
20%
42%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
9.8
1.1
1.2
1.0
20.8
21.9
20.1
vs Stronger (6)
7.3
8.0
7.0
3.3
6.5
1.8
16.2
17.0
15.8
vs Similar (44)
11.1
10.4
11.7
0.8
0.7
0.9
23.4
23.8
23.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
47%
57%
40%
14%
12%
15%
59%
71%
50%
% under line
53%
43%
60%
86%
88%
85%
41%
29%
50%
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
10.7
NK Varazdin
9.8
NK Osijek
9.6
Sibenik
9.2
NK Slaven Belupo
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
Dinamo Zagreb
9.0
HNK Rijeka
8.8
HNK Gorica
8.6
Istra 1961
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Istra 1961
4.9
HNK Rijeka
4.8
Dinamo Zagreb
4.8
NK Slaven Belupo
4.7
Sibenik
4.6
NK Osijek
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.5
HNK Hajduk Split
4.4
NK Varazdin
4.0
HNK Gorica
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Istra 1961
29.1
NK Osijek
26.6
HNK Rijeka
26.2
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.2
NK Slaven Belupo
25.5
Dinamo Zagreb
25.4
NK Varazdin
25.3
HNK Hajduk Split
24.4
HNK Gorica
23.8
Sibenik
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
52.7%
Under 9.5
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.6%
Under 3.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
70.1%
Under 21.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.33
0.73
0.50
0.75
0.14
0.71
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.40
0.50
0.25
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.30
0.79
0.21
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.24
0.79
0.21
0.87
0.27
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.07
0.69
0.88
0.36
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.40
0.62
1.25
0.14
1.57
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.73
0.75
0.50
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.17
1.00
0.14
1.06
0.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
1.07
0.14
1.00
0.14
1.13
0.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
83% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HNK Gorica
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Marko Kolar21%
Martin Šlogar15%
Jurica Pršir15%
Adrion Pajaziti13%
Agon Elezi12%
Tibor Halilović10%
Damjan Pavlović10%
Medin Gashi9%
Ante Erceg8%
Dino Mikanović7%
Krešimir Krizmanić6%
Filip Čuić6%
Luka Kapulica6%
Merveil Ndockyt3%
Ivan Fiolić0%
Ivan Banić0%
Mateo Leš0%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Mario Maloča0%
Slavko Bralić0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Anton Krešić0%
Matthew Steenvoorden0%
Dino Štiglec0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Mateo Bašić0%
Nikola Jojić0%
Vinko Skrbin0%
Vito Čaić0%
Jakov Gurlica0%
Ante Sušak0%
Toni Majić0%
Mario Matković0%
Luka Vrzić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ante Erceg33%
Nikola Jojić33%
Slavko Bralić29%
Ivan Fiolić25%
Merveil Ndockyt24%
Jurica Pršir20%
Damjan Pavlović20%
Gregor Sikošek19%
Filip Čuić19%
Vito Čaić18%
Marko Kolar17%
Martin Šlogar15%
Toni Majić14%
Jakov Gurlica13%
Agon Elezi12%
Luka Kapulica12%
Dino Štiglec12%
Mateo Leš11%
Mario Maloča11%
Tibor Halilović10%
Dino Mikanović10%
Krešimir Krizmanić9%
Adrion Pajaziti9%
Ivan Banić7%
Matthew Steenvoorden6%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Anton Krešić0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Mateo Bašić0%
Vinko Skrbin0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Sušak0%
Mario Matković0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dino Štiglec18%
Merveil Ndockyt12%
Jurica Pršir10%
Ante Erceg8%
Martin Šlogar8%
Mateo Leš7%
Jakov Gurlica7%
Gregor Sikošek6%
Filip Čuić6%
Marko Kolar4%
Ivan Fiolić0%
Tibor Halilović0%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Ivan Banić0%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Mario Maloča0%
Slavko Bralić0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Anton Krešić0%
Matthew Steenvoorden0%
Dino Mikanović0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Mateo Bašić0%
Agon Elezi0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Adrion Pajaziti0%
Nikola Jojić0%
Vinko Skrbin0%
Luka Kapulica0%
Vito Čaić0%
Medin Gashi0%
Ante Sušak0%
Toni Majić0%
Mario Matković0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Filip Čuić12%
Ante Erceg8%
Marko Kolar8%
Tibor Halilović5%
Jurica Pršir5%
Martin Šlogar4%
Merveil Ndockyt3%
Ivan Fiolić0%
Krešimir Krizmanić0%
Ivan Banić0%
Mateo Leš0%
Valentino Majstorović0%
Mario Maloča0%
Slavko Bralić0%
Božidar Radošević0%
Anton Krešić0%
Matthew Steenvoorden0%
Dino Štiglec0%
Dino Mikanović0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Gregor Sikošek0%
Mateo Bašić0%
Agon Elezi0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Adrion Pajaziti0%
Nikola Jojić0%
Vinko Skrbin0%
Luka Kapulica0%
Vito Čaić0%
Medin Gashi0%
Jakov Gurlica0%
Ante Sušak0%
Toni Majić0%
Mario Matković0%
Luka Vrzić0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Santini19%
Lovre Kulušić15%
Ivan Laća12%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan8%
Morrison Agyemang6%
Josip Majić5%
Ante Kavelj4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Stefan Perić3%
Ivan Božić3%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josip Gačić60%
Iker Pozo37%
Ivan Santini35%
Zoran Nižić25%
Josip Majić23%
Stefan Perić21%
Ivan Božić20%
Marin Prekodravac19%
Lovro Cvek19%
Ognjen Bakić19%
Morrison Agyemang16%
Roberto Punčec16%
Antonio Đaković15%
Leonard Žuta15%
Ivan Filipović14%
Ivan Roca14%
Jakov Anton Vasilj12%
Šime Gržan12%
Ante Kavelj9%
Bruno Zdunić8%
Elvir Duraković6%
Toni Kolega4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Ivan Delić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Ivan Laća0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Laća12%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Elvir Duraković6%
Marin Prekodravac5%
Toni Kolega4%
Šime Gržan4%
Leonard Žuta4%
Ivan Santini3%
Morrison Agyemang3%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Ivan Roca0%
Josip Gačić0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Lovre Kulušić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Santini26%
Josip Majić9%
Ivan Božić7%
Ivan Roca5%
Ivan Laća4%
Šime Gržan4%
Lovre Kulušić4%
Stefan Perić0%
Roberto Punčec0%
Ivan Delić0%
Ivan Filipović0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Josip Gačić0%
Toni Kolega0%
Antonio Jakoliš0%
Leonard Žuta0%
Zoran Nižić0%
Lovro Cvek0%
Iker Pozo0%
Jakov Anton Vasilj0%
Bruno Zdunić0%
Elvir Duraković0%
Ognjen Bakić0%
Carlos Torres0%
Duje Dujmović0%
Ivan Baković0%
Marin Prekodravac0%
Ante Kavelj0%
Morrison Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →