HNK Hajduk Split vs Vukovar Result & Analysis

HNK Hajduk Split are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 64 % chance to a home win, 23 % for a draw and 13 % for Vukovar to triumph. The 64 % home win probability reflects Hajduk’s strong home form, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding only 0.7 against weaker opposition, while Vukovar’s away record shows 1.0 goal scored and 2.5 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total goals sit at 2.7, with the most likely total of 2 goals at a 25 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for Hajduk, carrying a 12.6 % chance. The suggested picks are: Over 19.5 fouls 89.1 %, Over 2.5 cards 84.2 %, Under 11.5 corners 82.4 %, Over 21.5 fouls 79.0 %, Over 1.5 76.4 %, Under 10.5 corners 73.2 %, and Under 3.5 71.0 %. The model’s selection highlights the high likelihood of a dominant home victory, supported by Hajduk’s recent unbeaten run and Vukovar’s weaker away performance.

The win extends HNK Hajduk Split's run of form, as they secured a 6-3 victory over Vukovar. This result was well clear of the expected 2.7 total goals, with the actual total being significantly higher. The model's selection, Home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 64%. The model's call was correct, as it was the favourite. The model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls was also correct, with a probability of 79.1%, while Over 1.5 was correct with a 76.4% probability. Over 3.5 cards and Under 3.5 both missed, with probabilities of 71.5% and 71% respectively.