HNK Rijeka is expected to emerge victorious in this encounter against HNK Gorica, with a predicted outcome of home win. The recent form of the home side, having been on a 3-game winning run, adds weight to this expectation. The model's selection for this match is the home win, with a probability of 56%. The probability of a draw stands at 28%, while the away win has a 16% chance.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.3, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring with a probability of 14.8%. HNK Rijeka has a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.33 goals per match and conceding 1.17. Conversely, HNK Gorica's away form is concerning, averaging 1 goal scored and 1.29 conceded when facing stronger opponents. The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 80.3%, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 78.5% chance. Home win percentage is 56%, draw percentage is 28%, and away win percentage is 16%.
Results analysis
The home side, HNK Rijeka, secured a 2-0 win over HNK Gorica, extending their 3-game winning run. The model's call of a home win was correct, as they were the pre-match favourite with a 56% probability. The model's selection of a home win came to fruition.
The model's selection of under 3.5 goals hit, with an 80.3% probability. However, the selection of over 21.5 fouls missed, with a 78.5% probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
HNK Rijeka win✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
HNK Rijeka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.80
1.73
0.73
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.90
0.30
2.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
1.07
1.33
1.17
0.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.28
1.28
0.92
1.33
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
1.46
1.12
1.38
1.20
1.60
vs Similar (17)
1.12
1.18
1.40
1.20
0.71
1.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.9%
Under 2.5
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
12.6%
2-0 ✓
12.5%
0-0
11.4%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
3-1
4.7%
HNK Rijeka goals ↓
HNK Gorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
6.2%
2.6%
0.6%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.1%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
9.0%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
3
6.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.5%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Rijeka goals (down), columns = HNK Gorica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.39
HNK Hajduk Split
1.89
NK Varazdin
1.50
HNK Rijeka
1.47
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.22
Istra 1961
1.19
HNK Gorica
1.14
NK Slaven Belupo
1.14
NK Osijek
0.97
Vukovar
0.78
HNK Rijeka is 0.33 points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average points per game (1.47 vs 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.58
HNK Hajduk Split
1.69
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.31
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.11
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.11
Istra 1961
1.08
Vukovar
1.03
NK Osijek
0.75
HNK Rijeka is 0.25 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
HNK Hajduk Split
1.00
HNK Rijeka
1.00
NK Varazdin
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.33
NK Osijek
1.36
Istra 1961
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.44
NK Slaven Belupo
1.69
Vukovar
2.03
HNK Rijeka is 0.33 goals better than HNK Gorica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
HNK Hajduk Split
58%
Dinamo Zagreb
58%
HNK Rijeka
52%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
50%
Istra 1961
50%
NK Osijek
49%
NK Slaven Belupo
49%
HNK Gorica
46%
NK Varazdin
44%
Vukovar
43%
HNK Rijeka is 6.4 percentage points better than HNK Gorica in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Rijeka
For 7.2 · Against 3.2 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Gorica
For 4.3 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 14.9 · Total 26.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.6
4.5
4.8
4.2
26.1
25.8
26.4
vs Stronger (10)
9.3
8.8
9.8
4.9
4.8
5.0
26.1
28.4
23.8
vs Similar (15)
8.5
10.7
6.0
4.3
4.1
4.5
27.2
26.0
28.5
vs Weaker (25)
9.4
9.4
9.4
4.4
5.2
3.7
25.5
24.6
26.5
% over line
49%
50%
48%
66%
79%
54%
85%
83%
87%
% under line
51%
50%
52%
34%
21%
46%
15%
17%
13%
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
9.3
8.1
4.2
4.7
3.7
25.6
25.9
25.3
vs Stronger (21)
8.6
10.1
6.7
4.3
4.3
4.3
25.1
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (29)
8.8
8.6
8.9
4.1
5.0
3.3
26.0
25.9
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
39%
48%
29%
52%
60%
44%
82%
88%
75%
% under line
61%
52%
71%
48%
40%
56%
18%
12%
25%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
NK Osijek
9.8
Dinamo Zagreb
9.7
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9.3
NK Varazdin
9.3
Istra 1961
9.2
HNK Hajduk Split
9.1
HNK Rijeka
9.0
Vukovar
9.0
HNK Gorica
8.6
NK Slaven Belupo
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Varazdin
4.9
NK Osijek
4.8
HNK Rijeka
4.8
Istra 1961
4.7
HNK Hajduk Split
4.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
4.3
HNK Gorica
4.3
NK Slaven Belupo
4.3
Vukovar
4.3
Dinamo Zagreb
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
26.8
HNK Hajduk Split
26.7
HNK Rijeka
26.3
NK Osijek
26.3
Vukovar
25.9
HNK Gorica
25.7
NK Varazdin
24.9
NK Slaven Belupo
24.8
Dinamo Zagreb
23.4
Istra 1961
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
42.7%
Under 9.5
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.3%
Under 3.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
79.7%
Under 21.5
20.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.10
0.86
0.14
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.47
0.53
0.33
0.67
0.56
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.78
0.56
0.58
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.59
1.10
0.60
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
1.20
0.33
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (10)
1.30
0.20
1.57
0.14
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Gorica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
HNK Gorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.50
0.72
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.75
0.88
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (17)
0.24
0.59
0.30
0.60
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Gorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Croatia: HNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dinamo Zagreb
HNK Hajduk Split
NK Varazdin
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Istra 1961
NK Slaven Belupo
NK Osijek
Vukovar