This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.67
1.33
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
64.6%
Under 1.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
36.4%
Under 2.5
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
17.1%
Under 3.5
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
13.5%
0-0 ✓
13.0%
0-2
9.4%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
5.7%
2-0
4.5%
HNK Rijeka goals ↓
Sibenik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
14%
9.4%
4.0%
1.3%
1
8.9%
14%
8.3%
3.5%
1.1%
2
4.5%
5.7%
3.6%
1.5%
0.5%
3
1.3%
1.7%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = HNK Rijeka goals (down), columns = Sibenik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.97
NK Osijek
1.39
HNK Rijeka
1.36
NK Varazdin
1.28
Istra 1961
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.19
NK Slaven Belupo
1.19
HNK Gorica
0.89
Sibenik
0.75
HNK Rijeka is 0.61 points better than Sibenik in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.75).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Zagreb
2.25
HNK Hajduk Split
1.81
NK Osijek
1.28
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.25
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Varazdin
1.14
HNK Gorica
1.00
Istra 1961
1.00
NK Slaven Belupo
0.75
Sibenik
0.67
HNK Rijeka is 0.56 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dinamo Zagreb
0.78
Istra 1961
1.06
HNK Hajduk Split
1.14
NK Osijek
1.14
HNK Rijeka
1.22
NK Slaven Belupo
1.28
HNK Gorica
1.39
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
1.39
NK Varazdin
1.42
Sibenik
1.56
HNK Rijeka is 0.33 goals better than Sibenik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.22 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dinamo Zagreb
63%
HNK Hajduk Split
53%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
52%
Istra 1961
52%
NK Varazdin
51%
HNK Rijeka
50%
NK Osijek
50%
HNK Gorica
44%
Sibenik
44%
NK Slaven Belupo
42%
HNK Rijeka is 6.4 percentage points better than Sibenik in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
HNK Rijeka
For 3.6 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sibenik
For 4.4 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
HNK Rijeka
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (11)
8.0
8.5
7.7
5.6
5.2
6.0
24.0
20.8
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
9.2
11.0
8.7
5.8
4.0
7.0
24.0
23.0
24.5
vs Weaker (6)
7.2
7.7
6.7
5.5
6.0
5.0
24.0
20.0
28.0
% over line
30%
25%
33%
82%
80%
83%
56%
50%
60%
% under line
70%
75%
67%
18%
20%
17%
44%
50%
40%
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (9)
8.7
7.2
10.5
4.7
3.8
5.8
25.1
26.2
23.8
vs Stronger (3)
7.7
7.7
-
4.3
4.3
-
27.7
27.7
-
vs Similar (6)
9.2
6.5
10.5
4.8
3.0
5.8
23.8
24.0
23.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
67%
60%
75%
78%
100%
50%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
33%
40%
25%
22%
0%
50%
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
HNK Hajduk Split
8.7
Sibenik
8.7
Istra 1961
8.6
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
8.3
HNK Gorica
8.3
NK Varazdin
8.2
Dinamo Zagreb
8.2
NK Osijek
8.1
HNK Rijeka
8.0
NK Slaven Belupo
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Osijek
5.9
NK Varazdin
5.9
HNK Gorica
5.9
HNK Rijeka
5.6
HNK Hajduk Split
5.4
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
5.3
NK Slaven Belupo
4.9
Sibenik
4.7
Istra 1961
4.4
Dinamo Zagreb
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Varazdin
26.7
HNK Hajduk Split
25.7
NK Osijek
25.6
Sibenik
25.1
NK Slaven Belupo
24.7
HNK Rijeka
24.0
Istra 1961
23.9
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
22.8
Dinamo Zagreb
22.6
HNK Gorica
21.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
35.7%
Under 9.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
82.0%
Under 3.5
18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
61.6%
Under 21.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.36
0.73
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.83
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.00
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
55% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.20
0.25
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.33
0.33
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
HNK Rijeka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
1.09
0.20
1.20
0.33
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
18% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Sibenik) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sibenik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.56
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.33
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (HNK Rijeka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
HNK Rijeka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
HNK Rijeka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sibenik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
HNK Rijeka
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Matija Frigan48%
Haris Vučkić30%
Bernard Karrica25%
Nikita Vlasenko25%
Antonio Marin17%
Prince Ampem14%
Gabriel Lunetta14%
Alen Halilović12%
Jorge Obregón12%
Emmanuel Banda11%
Adrian Liber10%
Mario Vrančić8%
Lindon Selahi6%
Niko Janković5%
Näis Djouahra5%
Alen Grgić4%
Veldin Hodža3%
Matej Mitrović0%
Emir Dilaver0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Bruno Goda0%
Nediljko Labrović0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Deni Jurić0%
Mateo Pavlović0%
Anton Krešić0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Marco Đuričin0%
Mato Stanić0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga0%
Pablo Álvarez0%
Niko Galešić0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Dominik Simčić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Nikita Vlasenko50%
Pablo Álvarez50%
Gabriel Lunetta43%
Denis Bušnja40%
Damjan Pavlović33%
Mateo Pavlović31%
Bruno Goda27%
Andrija Vukčević27%
Roko Jurišić25%
Bernard Karrica25%
Mario Vrančić23%
Anton Krešić21%
Lindon Selahi21%
Veldin Hodža21%
Matej Mitrović20%
Adrian Liber20%
Matija Frigan19%
Emir Dilaver14%
Alen Halilović12%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga12%
Niko Janković11%
Emmanuel Banda11%
Haris Vučkić10%
Ivan Smolčić10%
Niko Galešić8%
Nediljko Labrović6%
Jorge Obregón4%
Alen Grgić4%
Prince Ampem3%
Antonio Marin0%
Deni Jurić0%
Näis Djouahra0%
Marco Đuričin0%
Mato Stanić0%
Dominik Simčić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Damjan Pavlović17%
Mario Vrančić15%
Prince Ampem14%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga12%
Alen Grgić11%
Emmanuel Banda11%
Haris Vučkić10%
Matija Frigan7%
Antonio Marin6%
Niko Janković5%
Adrian Liber5%
Ivan Smolčić5%
Jorge Obregón4%
Andrija Vukčević4%
Lindon Selahi3%
Veldin Hodža3%
Matej Mitrović0%
Emir Dilaver0%
Alen Halilović0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Bruno Goda0%
Nediljko Labrović0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Deni Jurić0%
Mateo Pavlović0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Anton Krešić0%
Näis Djouahra0%
Marco Đuričin0%
Bernard Karrica0%
Mato Stanić0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Pablo Álvarez0%
Niko Galešić0%
Dominik Simčić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Matija Frigan56%
Alen Halilović25%
Mario Vrančić23%
Antonio Marin22%
Marco Đuričin20%
Prince Ampem11%
Lindon Selahi9%
Niko Janković5%
Alen Grgić4%
Veldin Hodža3%
Matej Mitrović0%
Emir Dilaver0%
Jorge Obregón0%
Ivan Smolčić0%
Denis Bušnja0%
Adrian Liber0%
Bruno Goda0%
Nediljko Labrović0%
Roko Jurišić0%
Deni Jurić0%
Emmanuel Banda0%
Mateo Pavlović0%
Gabriel Lunetta0%
Anton Krešić0%
Haris Vučkić0%
Andrija Vukčević0%
Näis Djouahra0%
Bernard Karrica0%
Mato Stanić0%
Danilo Filipe Melo Veiga0%
Nikita Vlasenko0%
Pablo Álvarez0%
Niko Galešić0%
Damjan Pavlović0%
Dominik Simčić0%
Sibenik
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ivan Delić19%
Ivan Dolček17%
Duje Čop14%
Burgui12%
Patrick Salomon7%
Bernardo Matić7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Haruki Arai6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Stefan Perić3%
Marcos Mina3%
Mislav Matić3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Doni Grdić33%
Nikola Đorić29%
Bernardo Matić27%
Amer Hiroš25%
Matija Rom25%
Marko Đira20%
Marcos Mina20%
Ivan Delić19%
Mislav Matić18%
Ivan Dolček17%
Stefan Perić17%
Mario Ćurić17%
Josip Knežević17%
Ivica Vidović17%
Dejan Radonjić15%
Duje Čop14%
Iker Pozo14%
Dino Skorup13%
Marko Soldo13%
Juan Mesa12%
Haruki Arai9%
Patrick Salomon7%
Josip Kvesić7%
Niko Rak7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Lovre Rogić6%
Leon Kreković6%
Dario Čanađija6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Burgui0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Delić19%
Sacha Marasović12%
Duje Čop10%
Ivan Dolček7%
Marko Soldo7%
Amer Hiroš6%
Mislav Matić6%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Marcos Mina3%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Marcel Čanadi0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Josip Knežević0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Duje Čop19%
Ivan Delić19%
Marcel Čanadi10%
Josip Knežević8%
Ivan Dolček7%
Zoran Kvržić6%
Karlo Špeljak4%
Haruki Arai3%
Marko Đira0%
Stefan Perić0%
Patrick Salomon0%
Josip Kvesić0%
Juan Mesa0%
Dejan Radonjić0%
Dario Čanađija0%
Lovre Rogić0%
Antonio Đaković0%
Dino Skorup0%
Leon Kreković0%
Mario Ćurić0%
Nikola Đorić0%
Burgui0%
Marcos Mina0%
Mislav Matić0%
Bernardo Matić0%
Amer Hiroš0%
Matija Rom0%
Doni Grdić0%
Iker Pozo0%
Sacha Marasović0%
Niko Rak0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Marko Soldo0%
Moses Barnabas0%
Josip Baturina0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Croatia: HNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Croatia: HNL stats & trends →