The Hound Dogs are set to face College 1975 in the Gibraltar Premier Division on August 21. The recent form of the Hound Dogs has been concerning, having suffered three consecutive defeats, including a 1-5 thrashing against the Lions Gibraltar. Meanwhile, College 1975 is coming off a defeat but has shown resilience, conceding only two goals in their last outing against Mons Calpe.
The model favours an away win for College 1975, with a 56% chance of victory. The Hound Dogs' home win percentage stands at 19%, while the draw is 25% likely. The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 11.8% probability.
The Hound Dogs have struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.27 goals and conceding 3.27. College 1975, on the other hand, has excelled away from home, scoring 2 goals and conceding none against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is an Over 1.5 goal match, with a 78.8% probability. The suggested picks also include a College 1975 win, with a 56% probability, and a draw, with a 25% probability.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, College 1975, did not come through, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that left the model’s pick wrong. The Pythia model had given College 1975 a 56 % chance of victory, yet the game settled evenly. The model’s other selections all hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.1 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.1 %, Under 6.5 at 97.3 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 94.6 %, Under 5.5 at 93.0 %, Away +2 handicap at 92.8 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 91.9 %. Both sides entered the match coming off a 1-1 draw, with Hound Dogs’ recent form showing a streak of draws and losses and College 1975’s recent form also dominated by draws and defeats. The final score of 1-1 confirmed the low-scoring nature the model had anticipated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hound Dogs win✗ Miss
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
College 1975 win✗ Miss
56.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
3.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.45
3.00
0.27
3.27
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.93
0.73
2.00
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (22)
0.73
2.18
0.58
2.00
0.90
2.40
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.25
1.33
2.00
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.3%
Under 2.5
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.0%
Under 3.5
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.8%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.8%
0-1
9.6%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.1%
0-3
6.1%
2-1
5.4%
Hound Dogs goals ↓
College 1975 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
9.6%
9.8%
6.1%
2.8%
1
4.7%
12%
9.9%
6.1%
2.8%
2
2.9%
5.4%
5.0%
3.1%
1.4%
3
1.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.0%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hound Dogs goals (down), columns = College 1975 goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Hound Dogs is 0.27 points worse than College 1975 in terms of average points per game (0.36 vs 0.64).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Hound Dogs is 0.23 goals worse than College 1975 in terms of goals scored per game (0.45 vs 0.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Hound Dogs is 0.95 goals worse than College 1975 in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.05).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hound Dogs or Draw✓ Hit
44.0%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Hound Dogs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs or College 1975✗ Miss
75.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Hound Dogs + College 1975
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or College 1975✓ Hit
80.8%
Avg Implied -
19%
25%
56%
covers Draw + College 1975
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.4%
Under
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.6%
Under
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
84.2%
Under
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.6%
Under
88.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hound Dogs, so a minus line means Hound Dogs give that many goals of a start and College 1975 receive them. At -1, Hound Dogs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hound Dogs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hound Dogs)Actual: College 1975
Hound Dogs -2
2.0%
Draw -2
5.2%
College 1975 +2
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hound Dogs)Actual: College 1975
Hound Dogs -1
7.2%
Draw -1
12.1%
College 1975 +1
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hound Dogs)Actual: Hound Dogs
Hound Dogs +1
44.0%
Draw +1
23.1%
College 1975 -1
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hound Dogs)Actual: Hound Dogs
Hound Dogs +2
67.1%
Draw +2
17.5%
College 1975 -2
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.64
0.09
1.91
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
18% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.83
0.27
0.80
0.33
0.87
vs Stronger (22)
0.18
0.91
0.17
0.75
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.62
0.67
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
73.1%
Under 0.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
35.1%
Under 1.5
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
12.9%
Under 2.5
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.4%
Under
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
1.36
0.18
1.36
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
36% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (College 1975) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
College 1975
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.10
0.47
1.20
0.80
1.00
vs Stronger (22)
0.55
1.27
0.42
1.25
0.70
1.30
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.62
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
College 1975 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 goals
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Hound Dogs and College 1975 have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Hound Dogs and College 1975 have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Hound Dogs and College 1975 have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Hound Dogs and College 1975 have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →