Lincoln Red Imps FC are the clear favourites, with the model giving them an 88% chance of victory. Their away form is strong, scoring an average of 2.29 goals and conceding only 0.57 against weaker opponents, while Hound Dogs struggle at home, averaging 0.22 goals scored and conceding 3.67 against stronger teams. The model therefore predicts an away win as the most likely result, with the single most probable scoreline 0-3, occurring 12.4% of the time. The expected total goals for the match is 3.9, with the most likely total being 3 goals at a 20% probability. The home win probability is 3%, the draw 9%, and the away win88%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.7%, Away +2 handicap at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 goals at 97.8%, Draw or Away at 96.9%, Away +1 handicap at 96.9%, Away over 0.5 goals at 96.4%, Under 7.5 at 95.5%, and Home or Away at 91.0%. Hound Dogs entered the game after a draw, while Lincoln Red Imps came off a win, reinforcing the model’s assessment of the away side’s dominance.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hound Dogs win
2.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
90.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.87
2.31
0.81
2.14
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.67
1.20
1.25
1.12
2.14
1.29
vs Weaker (14)
2.93
0.50
3.71
0.43
2.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.0%
Under 1.5
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
75.9%
Under 2.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
38.7%
No
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
13.2%
0-4
11.5%
0-2
11.4%
0-5
8.0%
1-3
6.7%
0-1
6.2%
1-4
5.8%
1-2
5.7%
Hound Dogs goals ↓
Lincoln Red Imps FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.2%
6.2%
11%
13%
11%
1
0.6%
3.6%
5.7%
6.7%
5.8%
2
0.2%
0.8%
1.4%
1.7%
1.5%
3
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hound Dogs goals (down), columns = Lincoln Red Imps FC goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Hound Dogs is 2.30 points worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of average points per game (0.36 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Hound Dogs is 2.84 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.45 vs 3.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Hound Dogs is 2.37 goals worse than Lincoln Red Imps FC in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hound Dogs or Draw
9.7%
Avg Implied -
2%
8%
90%
covers Hound Dogs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs or Lincoln Red Imps FC
92.5%
Avg Implied -
2%
8%
90%
covers Hound Dogs + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lincoln Red Imps FC
97.8%
Avg Implied -
2%
8%
90%
covers Draw + Lincoln Red Imps FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
39.6%
Under
60.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
0.2%
Under
99.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5
Over
96.9%
Under
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5
Over
86.2%
Under
13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 3.5
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hound Dogs, so a minus line means Hound Dogs give that many goals of a start and Lincoln Red Imps FC receive them. At -1, Hound Dogs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hound Dogs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs -2
0.1%
Draw -2
0.4%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +2
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs -1
0.5%
Draw -1
1.7%
Lincoln Red Imps FC +1
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs +1
9.7%
Draw +1
13.8%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -1
76.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs +2
23.5%
Draw +2
19.5%
Lincoln Red Imps FC -2
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.47
0.50
0.62
0.29
0.29
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.36
1.86
0.29
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln Red Imps FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln Red Imps FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.25
0.31
1.43
0.57
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.27
0.73
0.75
0.50
1.86
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.14
1.86
0.14
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln Red Imps FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away -1 handicap
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln Red Imps FC · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kike Gómez33%
Christian Rutjens25%
Nicholas Pozo20%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ayman El Ghobashy67%
Mandi60%
Graeme Torrilla50%
Jaylan Hankins40%
Joe33%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo33%
Tjay De Barr17%
Kike Gómez17%
Toni Kolega0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Joe33%
Toni Kolega17%
Tjay De Barr17%
Bernardo Lopes17%
Juanje Argüez17%
Mandi0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Nano0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Toni0%
Kike Gómez0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nano20%
Kike Gómez17%
Boubacar Sidik Dabo17%
Mandi0%
Toni Kolega0%
Ayman El Ghobashy0%
Tjay De Barr0%
Christian Rutjens0%
Bernardo Lopes0%
Jaylan Hankins0%
Jesus Toscano Serrano0%
Rafael Muñoz0%
Juanje Argüez0%
Toni0%
Victor Villacañas Morales0%
Graeme Torrilla0%
Joe0%
Nicholas Pozo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Hound Dogs's squad is €2m less valuable than Lincoln Red Imps FC's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Hound Dogs and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Hound Dogs and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Hound Dogs and Lincoln Red Imps FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
St Joseph S Fc
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe