The Pythia model points to an away win as the clear favourite, rating St Joseph S Fc at 90% versus Hound Dogs’ 3%. The model’s confidence comes from the stark contrast in form: St Joseph S Fc average away goals scored 4.33 and conceded 0.56 against weaker opposition, while Hound Dogs average 0.22 scored and 3.67 conceded at home against stronger teams. The expected total is 4.2 goals, with the most likely total of 6 + goals at 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-3, with a 11.9% probability. Home win 3%, draw 8%, away win90%. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals99.7%, Away +2 handicap99.4%, Home under 2.5 goals97.7%, Draw or Away97.3%, Away +1 handicap97.3%, Away over 0.5 goals97.2%, Under 7.594.0%, and Over 1.592.2%. Hound Dogs come off a draw, St Joseph S Fc off a win, reinforcing the model’s assessment that the visitors will dominate.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hound Dogs win
2.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
6.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc win
91.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hound Dogs
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
2.91
0.33
3.08
0.64
2.73
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
3.44
0.22
3.67
0.67
3.22
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
9% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
3.27
0.73
3.27
1.00
3.27
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
2.30
0.80
3.25
1.50
1.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
3.75
0.70
3.27
0.82
4.33
0.56
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
93.1%
Under 1.5
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
80.2%
Under 2.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
62.2%
Under 3.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.9%
No
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-3
12.1%
0-4
11.3%
0-2
9.7%
0-5
8.4%
1-3
6.7%
1-4
6.3%
1-2
5.4%
0-6
5.3%
Hound Dogs goals ↓
St Joseph S Fc goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
4.9%
9.7%
12%
11%
1
0.5%
3.2%
5.4%
6.7%
6.3%
2
0.2%
0.8%
1.5%
1.9%
1.7%
3
0.0%
0.1%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hound Dogs goals (down), columns = St Joseph S Fc goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln Red Imps FC
2.67
St Joseph S Fc
2.33
Europa
2.07
Mons Calpe
1.96
Lions Gibraltar
1.59
Magpies
1.27
Lynx
1.26
Europa Point
1.00
College 1975
0.64
Glacis United
0.55
Hound Dogs
0.36
Hound Dogs is 1.97 points worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of average points per game (0.36 vs 2.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
St Joseph S Fc
3.56
Lincoln Red Imps FC
3.30
Mons Calpe
2.33
Lions Gibraltar
1.96
Europa
1.96
Europa Point
1.41
Lynx
1.41
Magpies
1.14
Glacis United
0.82
College 1975
0.68
Hound Dogs
0.45
Hound Dogs is 3.10 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals scored per game (0.45 vs 3.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
St Joseph S Fc
0.63
Lincoln Red Imps FC
0.63
Europa
0.78
Mons Calpe
1.30
Magpies
1.45
Lions Gibraltar
1.63
Lynx
1.67
College 1975
2.05
Glacis United
2.59
Europa Point
2.77
Hound Dogs
3.00
Hound Dogs is 2.37 goals worse than St Joseph S Fc in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 0.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hound Dogs or Draw
8.7%
Avg Implied -
2%
7%
91%
covers Hound Dogs + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs or St Joseph S Fc
93.4%
Avg Implied -
2%
7%
91%
covers Hound Dogs + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or St Joseph S Fc
97.9%
Avg Implied -
2%
7%
91%
covers Draw + St Joseph S Fc
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5
Over
97.6%
Under
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5
Over
88.7%
Under
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 3.5
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hound Dogs, so a minus line means Hound Dogs give that many goals of a start and St Joseph S Fc receive them. At -1, Hound Dogs must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hound Dogs win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs -2
0.1%
Draw -2
0.4%
St Joseph S Fc +2
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs -1
0.5%
Draw -1
1.6%
St Joseph S Fc +1
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs +1
8.7%
Draw +1
12.3%
St Joseph S Fc -1
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Hound Dogs)
Hound Dogs +2
21.0%
Draw +2
18.1%
St Joseph S Fc -2
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.22
1.57
0.08
1.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.78
0.11
2.00
0.33
1.56
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
22% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.27
1.47
0.40
1.33
0.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.10
1.25
0.25
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.55
0.35
1.55
0.45
1.56
0.22
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hound Dogs
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.26
1.35
0.25
1.33
0.27
1.36
vs Stronger (18)
0.22
1.67
0.11
1.67
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (St Joseph S Fc) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
St Joseph S Fc
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.47
1.80
0.60
1.93
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.20
0.70
2.00
1.25
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (20)
2.20
0.35
1.73
0.36
2.78
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Hound Dogs) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hound Dogs over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hound Dogs over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
St Joseph S Fc over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away -1 handicap
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (25)
€2m
SJS (19)
€2m
EUR (22)
€2m
LG (21)
€1m
MC (17)
€1m
LYN (21)
€1m
MAG (13)
€1m
EP (17)
€1m
GU (17)
€1m
C1 (32)
€1m
HD (17)
€0m
Hound Dogs's squad is €1m less valuable than St Joseph S Fc's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (11)
€1m
EUR (9)
€1m
LG (6)
€1m
MC (7)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
EP (7)
€0m
SJS (5)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
C1 (8)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
Hound Dogs and St Joseph S Fc have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SJS (5)
€0m
LG (5)
€0m
EUR (3)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
LYN (3)
€0m
C1 (10)
€0m
GU (4)
€0m
LRI (4)
€0m
MC (3)
€0m
MAG (3)
€0m
HD (6)
€0m
Hound Dogs and St Joseph S Fc have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LRI (10)
€1m
SJS (9)
€1m
LG (10)
€0m
EUR (10)
€0m
MAG (5)
€0m
MC (7)
€0m
GU (9)
€0m
LYN (9)
€0m
C1 (14)
€0m
EP (5)
€0m
HD (5)
€0m
Hound Dogs and St Joseph S Fc have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Gibraltar: Premier Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Gibraltar: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Europa
Magpies
Lions Gibraltar
Lincoln Red Imps FC
College 1975
Lynx
Glacis United
Europa Point
Mons Calpe