Hoyvík’s recent slump - three straight defeats - sets a cautious tone, yet the model still favours a home win with a 45% probability, a draw at 22% and an away win at 33%. The expected total of 3.9 goals signals a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with an 8.6% chance. Hoyvík, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, while B36 II, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.58 scored and 2.67 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 90.5%, Over 2.5 at 74.1%, and BTTS Yes at 73.5%. These picks reflect the offensive potential and the likelihood of both teams finding the net. The predicted outcome remains a Hoyvík victory, despite the recent form and the balanced goal expectations.
Results analysis
The upset came as Hoyvík, the pre-match favourite, fell short, with B36 II snatching a 2-1 away win. Hoyvík’s recent run of LLLWL after a 0-3 loss to Suduroy had left the home side looking shaky, while B36 II’s LLLWL streak, following a 3-5 defeat to B71, suggested they were still finding form. The model had tipped a home victory at 45% probability, but that call was wrong. The model’s other selections - Over 1.5 (90.5%), Over 2.5 (74.1%) and BTTS Yes (73.5%) - all hit, confirming the match’s high-scoring nature. The final score of 1-2 settled the outcome, with B36 II securing the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hoyvík win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
B36 II win✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hoyvík
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.71
1.96
1.69
1.69
1.73
2.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
1.60
2.27
1.83
2.50
1.44
2.11
vs Weaker (10)
2.10
1.50
1.80
0.80
2.40
2.20
Clean sheet %
14% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (B36 II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
B36 II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
2.00
2.00
1.33
1.87
2.67
vs Stronger (23)
1.78
2.17
2.00
1.64
1.58
2.67
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
2.67
1.50
2.33
0.33
3.00
2.67
Clean sheet %
17% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
90.5%
Under 1.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
74.1%
Under 2.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.9%
Under 3.5
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.5%
No
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.6%
2-1
8.1%
2-2
7.2%
1-2 ✓
6.9%
3-1
5.7%
3-2
5.0%
2-0
4.6%
2-3
4.3%
Hoyvík goals ↓
B36 II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.9%
2.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.9%
1
3.6%
8.6%
6.9%
4.1%
1.8%
2
4.6%
8.1%
7.2%
4.3%
1.9%
3
3.2%
5.7%
5.0%
3.0%
1.3%
4
1.7%
3.0%
2.6%
1.5%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hoyvík goals (down), columns = B36 II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Víkingur II
2.00
Suduroy
1.74
B71
1.63
TB
1.59
AB
1.52
B36 II
1.52
NSÍ II
1.22
KÍ II
1.11
Hoyvík
0.74
HB II
0.44
Hoyvík is 0.78 points worse than B36 II in terms of average points per game (0.74 vs 1.52).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Víkingur II
2.67
Suduroy
2.07
B36 II
1.85
AB
1.74
B71
1.63
NSÍ II
1.44
TB
1.41
KÍ II
1.19
HB II
0.96
Hoyvík
0.89
Hoyvík is 0.96 goals worse than B36 II in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.85).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TB
0.89
B71
1.07
AB
1.11
Suduroy
1.30
Víkingur II
1.30
B36 II
1.52
KÍ II
1.85
NSÍ II
1.89
Hoyvík
2.00
HB II
2.93
Hoyvík is 0.48 goals worse than B36 II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.52).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hoyvík
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.96
0.92
1.00
0.54
0.92
1.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.92
0.83
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.20
1.00
1.80
Clean sheet %
46% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (B36 II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
B36 II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.87
0.93
0.67
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
1.00
0.91
0.82
0.83
1.17
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hoyvík over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hoyvík
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.96
0.69
1.15
0.77
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
1.23
1.00
1.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.50
0.40
0.60
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
31% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (B36 II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
B36 II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.13
1.07
0.67
1.00
1.60
vs Stronger (23)
0.91
1.17
1.09
0.82
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Hoyvík) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hoyvík over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hoyvík over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
B36 II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Faroe-Islands: 1. Deild 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Faroe-Islands: 1. Deild stats & trends →