Manchester United is the clear favourite to win this match, with the model predicting an away win. This is largely due to their opponent, Hull, struggling at home, particularly against stronger opponents, where they have scored an average of 2 goals and conceded none. Meanwhile, Manchester United have been on a two-game winning run, scoring 2 goals on average when playing away against weaker opponents, conceding 1 goal. The model predicts an away win with a probability of 66%. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely outcome being a 0-2 scoreline for Manchester United, with a probability of 12.3%. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 78.7%. Hull have a 12% chance of winning, a 22% chance of drawing, and a 66% chance of losing. Manchester United have a 12.3% chance of winning 0-2, a 11% chance of winning 0-1, and a 10.3% chance of drawing 1-1. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goals selection with a 78.7% probability, and a 2% edge.
Results analysis
Hull’s 2-0 victory over Manchester United shocked the pundits, ending the home side’s three-game winning run and proving the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 62 %, was wrong. The final score of 2-0 gave Hull the actual result of a home win. The model’s selection of Home under 3.5 goals, with a 99.1 % probability, was correct, as were the Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.4 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Home under 2.5 goals (95.5 %) and the Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.3 %) - all of which hit. The suggested pick of Away +2 handicap, at 96.2 %, missed, and the Home under 1.5 HT goals, at 94.3 %, also missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Hull win✓ Hit
15.4%
Avg Implied 10.5% · @ 9.04
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
10.00
Betano
10.00
1xBet
9.75
Marathonbet
9.60
BetVictor
9.50
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 5.18
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.59
Superbet
5.55
BetVictor
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Manchester United win✗ Miss
61.5%
Avg Implied 71.1% · @ 1.34
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
William Hil
1.35
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Hull
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.17
1.12
1.25
1.36
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.50
0.00
4.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
1.32
1.07
1.20
1.07
1.46
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.27
1.93
1.33
1.73
1.20
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.35
2.09
1.45
1.58
1.25
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
1.17
1.33
1.33
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.17-1.3%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 4.78+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Under
BetVictor
5.25
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.95
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.59-4.9%
Under 2.5
45.3%
@ 2.35+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Under
Pinnacle
2.49
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
Superbet
2.40
888Sport
2.38
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.4%
@ 2.46-6.2%
Under 3.5
67.6%
@ 1.54+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Betano
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.60
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.56
BetVictor
1.54
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.0%
@ 1.90+2.6%
No
48.0%
@ 1.85-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.95
William Hil
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Unibet
1.94
No
Betfair
2.00
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.0%@ 6.74+4.3%
1-1
11.0%@ 9.08+6.0%
0-1
10.2%@ 7.29+3.9%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.92+4.2%
0-3
7.3%@ 8.80+2.1%
0-0
6.7%@ 14.57+3.5%
1-3
6.5%@ 10.29+2.1%
2-1
4.5%@ 22.82+2.5%
Hull goals ↓
Manchester United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.7%
10%
11%
7.3%
3.6%
1
4.1%
11%
9.9%
6.5%
3.2%
2
2.3%
4.5%
4.4%
2.9%
1.4%
3
0.7%
1.3%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Hull goals (down), columns = Manchester United goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arsenal
2.24
Manchester City
2.05
Manchester United
1.87
Aston Villa
1.71
Liverpool
1.58
Bournemouth
1.50
Sunderland
1.42
Brighton
1.39
Brentford
1.39
Fulham
1.37
Chelsea
1.37
Everton
1.29
Newcastle
1.29
Leeds
1.24
Ipswich
1.19
Crystal Palace
1.18
Nottingham Forest
1.16
Tottenham
1.08
Coventry
0.98
Hull
0.95
Hull is 0.92 points worse than Manchester United in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Manchester City
2.03
Arsenal
1.87
Manchester United
1.82
Liverpool
1.66
Chelsea
1.53
Bournemouth
1.53
Aston Villa
1.47
Brentford
1.45
Newcastle
1.39
Brighton
1.37
Leeds
1.29
Tottenham
1.26
Nottingham Forest
1.26
Fulham
1.24
Everton
1.24
Ipswich
1.20
Sunderland
1.11
Crystal Palace
1.08
Coventry
0.99
Hull
0.96
Hull is 0.86 goals worse than Manchester United in terms of goals scored per game (0.96 vs 1.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arsenal
0.71
Manchester City
0.92
Brighton
1.21
Sunderland
1.26
Aston Villa
1.29
Everton
1.32
Manchester United
1.32
Fulham
1.34
Nottingham Forest
1.34
Crystal Palace
1.34
Chelsea
1.37
Brentford
1.37
Liverpool
1.39
Bournemouth
1.42
Newcastle
1.45
Leeds
1.47
Tottenham
1.50
Ipswich
1.57
Coventry
1.92
Hull
1.97
Hull is 0.66 goals worse than Manchester United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Manchester City
60%
Liverpool
59%
Chelsea
57%
Arsenal
56%
Brighton
53%
Aston Villa
53%
Manchester United
52%
Newcastle
52%
Fulham
51%
Tottenham
50%
Bournemouth
50%
Brentford
47%
Nottingham Forest
46%
Leeds
46%
Crystal Palace
45%
Sunderland
45%
Everton
44%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Hull
For 4.2 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 10.1 · Total 19.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Manchester United
For 5.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 10.5 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hull
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
8.9
12.0
4.2
4.0
4.3
21.5
22.4
20.5
vs Stronger (3)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.7
4.0
6.0
20.7
19.0
24.0
vs Similar (47)
10.4
8.8
12.1
4.1
4.0
4.3
21.5
22.7
20.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
61%
42%
83%
60%
63%
57%
43%
54%
30%
% under line
39%
58%
17%
40%
37%
43%
57%
46%
70%
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.4
9.8
4.2
4.7
3.8
21.9
21.9
21.9
vs Stronger (2)
6.5
7.0
6.0
2.5
5.0
0.0
18.5
21.0
16.0
vs Similar (38)
9.6
9.3
9.8
4.5
4.9
4.0
22.3
22.2
22.5
vs Weaker (10)
10.5
10.2
10.8
3.7
3.8
3.6
20.9
20.8
21.0
% over line
52%
52%
52%
64%
76%
52%
52%
52%
52%
% under line
48%
48%
48%
36%
24%
48%
48%
48%
48%
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Newcastle
11.1
Bournemouth
10.5
Fulham
10.5
Hull
10.5
Liverpool
10.3
Manchester City
10.2
Nottingham Forest
10.0
Chelsea
9.9
Brentford
9.9
Ipswich
9.9
Tottenham
9.8
Brighton
9.8
Coventry
9.7
Leeds
9.6
Manchester United
9.6
Aston Villa
9.5
Everton
9.4
Sunderland
9.2
Arsenal
9.0
Crystal Palace
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tottenham
4.7
Bournemouth
4.5
Chelsea
4.4
Sunderland
4.3
Manchester United
4.2
Hull
4.2
Ipswich
4.2
Newcastle
4.2
Brighton
4.0
Brentford
3.8
Crystal Palace
3.8
Aston Villa
3.8
Manchester City
3.7
Everton
3.7
Coventry
3.7
Fulham
3.6
Liverpool
3.5
Nottingham Forest
3.5
Arsenal
3.5
Leeds
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ipswich
24.0
Aston Villa
23.7
Nottingham Forest
23.4
Bournemouth
23.2
Chelsea
23.0
Sunderland
22.8
Tottenham
22.7
Brighton
22.1
Arsenal
22.1
Everton
21.9
Manchester United
21.9
Leeds
21.8
Newcastle
21.6
Crystal Palace
21.5
Hull
21.4
Manchester City
21.3
Liverpool
21.0
Coventry
21.0
Fulham
20.2
Brentford
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
49.4%
@ 1.74-4.0%
Under 9.5
50.6%
@ 2.00+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
1.99
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.2%
@ 1.59-7.2%
Under 3.5
48.8%
@ 2.24+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Pinnacle
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.20
Unibet
2.17
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
47.0%
@ 2.02+0.9%
Under 21.5
53.0%
@ 1.73-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.17
Superbet
2.10
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.61
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Hull or Draw✓ Hit
33.7%
Avg Implied 29.3% · @ 3.23
Edge
+4.4%
15%
23%
62%
covers Hull + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
3.45
1xBet
3.42
Superbet
3.35
Betano
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Hull or Manchester United✓ Hit
78.5%
Avg Implied 82.2% · @ 1.15
Edge
-3.7%
15%
23%
62%
covers Hull + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Draw or Manchester United✗ Miss
87.8%
Avg Implied 88.5% · @ 1.07
Edge
-0.7%
15%
23%
62%
covers Draw + Manchester United
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betano
1.08
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Hull over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.4%
@ 1.73+0.4%
Under
45.6%
@ 2.03-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Unibet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
888Sport
1.73
Under
Betfair
2.20
Pinnacle
2.17
888Sport
2.05
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
Hull over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.6%
@ 4.70-1.3%
Under
81.4%
@ 1.17+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Superbet
4.75
888Sport
4.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Hull over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 15.06-1.8%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
888Sport
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Hull over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 38.67-1.7%
Under
99.1%
@ 1.01+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Superbet
50.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Manchester United over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
87.4%
@ 1.06-0.7%
Under
12.6%
@ 7.84+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Under
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
1xBet
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Superbet
7.80
Manchester United over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
61.2%
@ 1.39-5.8%
Under
38.8%
@ 2.83+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.45
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Marathonbet
2.92
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.87
Manchester United over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
34.2%
@ 2.24-7.4%
Under
65.8%
@ 1.60+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.29
1xBet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Marathonbet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
BetVictor
1.62
Betano
1.62
Manchester United over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.16-6.9%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.20+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
888Sport
4.20
Under
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Hull, so a minus line means Hull give that many goals of a start and Manchester United receive them. At -1, Hull must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Hull win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Hull)Actual: Draw
Hull -2
0.8%
@ 69.00-0.6%
Draw -2
3.0%
@ 29.67-0.3%
Manchester United +2
96.2%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
91.00
Superbet
65.00
Bet365
51.00
Draw
Bet365
34.00
Betfair
31.00
Superbet
24.00
Away
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Handicap -1 (Hull)Actual: Hull
Hull -1
3.8%
@ 20.80-0.6%
Draw -1
8.4%
@ 9.98-0.8%
Manchester United +1
87.8%
@ 1.07+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
26.00
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
Unibet
18.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Superbet
9.40
10Bet
8.00
Away
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Handicap +1 (Hull)Actual: Hull
Hull +1
33.7%
@ 3.22+5.5%
Draw +1
23.7%
@ 3.65-1.2%
Manchester United -1
42.6%
@ 1.94-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.00
Draw
Superbet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Away
Bet365
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
Handicap +2 (Hull)Actual: Hull
Hull +2
57.4%
@ 1.80+7.2%
Draw +2
20.5%
@ 4.06-1.8%
Manchester United -2
22.1%
@ 3.29-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Unibet
1.83
10Bet
1.73
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Unibet
3.15
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Hull
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.75
0.62
0.79
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
0.82
0.46
0.80
0.60
0.85
0.31
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.74
0.39
0.82
0.45
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.3%
@ 1.27+2.6%
Under 0.5
23.7%
@ 3.56-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Under
Betfair
4.10
Superbet
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 2.32+3.8%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.58-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
William Hil
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.36
Under
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Pinnacle
1.61
BetVictor
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.5%
@ 5.32-1.1%
Under 2.5
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.75
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Hull over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.9%
@ 3.13+12.1%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.33-12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.38
Unibet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Marathonbet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
Under
1xBet
1.35
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Hull over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
5.7%
@ 11.62-2.4%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Hull over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 60.00-98.9%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
60.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
62.6%
@ 1.45-1.5%
Under
37.4%
@ 2.60+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.46
Pinnacle
1.44
Superbet
1.42
Under
Pinnacle
2.78
Superbet
2.65
Unibet
2.60
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Manchester United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.14-5.4%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.31+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.20
Betano
3.20
1xBet
3.10
Unibet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Manchester United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.9%
@ 7.67-4.1%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.05+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.40
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Hull
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.38
0.62
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.61
0.40
0.47
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Manchester United) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Manchester United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.83
1.20
0.87
1.13
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.09
0.96
1.27
1.00
0.92
0.92
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
0.67
0.67
2.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hull) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.8%
Under 0.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.5%
Under 1.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.5%
Under 2.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Hull over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hull over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Manchester United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
Under
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 3.5 goals
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.2%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betfair
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+0.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
95.5%
1.02
888Sport
1.03
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
93.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.06
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
92.1%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
87.8%
1.07
BetVictor
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Superbet
1.08
888Sport
1.08
Betano
1.08
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
87.8%
1.07
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.5%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
87.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Bet365
1.07
Superbet
1.06
-0.7%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
84.4%
1.20
Betano
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.9%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.13
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.6%
1.30
Betano
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
-
-
+11.5%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
81.4%
1.17
Pinnacle
1.20
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
+1.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.17
10Bet
1.20
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.5%
1.15
1xBet
1.18
888Sport
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
-3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
76.3%
1.27
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
76.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Unibet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.8%
1.37
Superbet
1.45
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.37
1xBet
1.36
Betfair
1.33
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
72.0%
1.27
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.23
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Hull
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Liam Millar33%
Regan Slater0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Elliot Stroud33%
Lucas Herrington33%
Cody Drameh0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Regan Slater33%
Liam Millar33%
Mohamed Belloumi33%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Regan Slater0%
Liam Millar0%
Cody Drameh0%
Elliot Stroud0%
Mohamed Belloumi0%
Lucas Herrington0%
Manchester United · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamin Šeško34%
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha29%
Casemiro26%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Mason Mount12%
Harry Maguire8%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Matthijs de Ligt7%
Amad Diallo6%
Kobbie Mainoo3%
Diogo Dalot3%
Luke Shaw3%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Casemiro29%
Shea Lacey25%
Luke Shaw24%
Patrick Dorgu18%
Harry Maguire16%
Joshua Zirkzee15%
Noussair Mazraoui15%
Diogo Dalot14%
Bruno Fernandes14%
Bryan Mbeumo12%
Matheus Cunha11%
Ayden Heaven11%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Mason Mount8%
Benjamin Šeško6%
Amad Diallo6%
Manuel Ugarte4%
Leny Yoro3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Senne Lammens0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bruno Fernandes51%
Patrick Dorgu14%
Kobbie Mainoo10%
Amad Diallo9%
Bryan Mbeumo9%
Diogo Dalot8%
Harry Maguire8%
Casemiro6%
Matheus Cunha6%
Ayden Heaven6%
Mason Mount4%
Joshua Zirkzee4%
Benjamin Šeško3%
Luke Shaw3%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Shea Lacey0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Bryan Mbeumo32%
Matheus Cunha31%
Benjamin Šeško25%
Bruno Fernandes22%
Amad Diallo15%
Casemiro14%
Joshua Zirkzee8%
Patrick Dorgu7%
Matthijs de Ligt0%
Noussair Mazraoui0%
Diogo Dalot0%
Luke Shaw0%
Lisandro Martínez0%
Harry Maguire0%
Mason Mount0%
Tyrell Malacia0%
Altay Bayındır0%
Manuel Ugarte0%
Senne Lammens0%
Kobbie Mainoo0%
Leny Yoro0%
Jack Fletcher0%
Ayden Heaven0%
Shea Lacey0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (39)
€1407m
ARS (29)
€1406m
MC (27)
€1326m
LIV (29)
€980m
MU (30)
€929m
TOT (36)
€920m
BHA (30)
€620m
BOU (31)
€573m
NEW (25)
€568m
BRE (32)
€565m
NFO (28)
€551m
AVL (27)
€536m
CRY (29)
€505m
EVE (24)
€459m
LEE (27)
€427m
SUN (30)
€392m
FUL (21)
€329m
IPS (31)
€280m
COV (27)
€237m
HUL (27)
€105m
Hull's squad is €824m less valuable than Manchester United's (€105m vs €929m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (9)
€635m
CHE (13)
€614m
ARS (13)
€608m
LIV (9)
€518m
MU (11)
€432m
BOU (11)
€285m
NFO (9)
€263m
TOT (12)
€250m
NEW (7)
€234m
CRY (11)
€229m
BRE (10)
€228m
AVL (10)
€220m
BHA (9)
€190m
FUL (9)
€178m
EVE (7)
€174m
LEE (11)
€166m
SUN (9)
€157m
IPS (11)
€130m
COV (8)
€85m
HUL (7)
€22m
Hull's attack is €409m less valuable than Manchester United's (€22m vs €432m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARS (4)
€290m
TOT (7)
€282m
CHE (6)
€278m
MU (7)
€236m
LIV (6)
€201m
BHA (7)
€180m
EVE (7)
€162m
MC (3)
€160m
AVL (6)
€160m
BRE (7)
€128m
NEW (6)
€124m
SUN (6)
€110m
BOU (6)
€106m
LEE (5)
€98m
CRY (5)
€93m
IPS (7)
€66m
COV (6)
€52m
NFO (4)
€52m
HUL (8)
€31m
FUL (3)
€28m
Hull's midfield is €206m less valuable than Manchester United's (€31m vs €236m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MC (15)
€531m
CHE (20)
€514m
ARS (12)
€508m
TOT (17)
€388m
MU (12)
€261m
LIV (14)
€260m
BHA (14)
€249m
NFO (15)
€236m
NEW (12)
€210m
BRE (15)
€209m
CRY (13)
€182m
BOU (14)
€182m
LEE (11)
€163m
AVL (11)
€156m
SUN (15)
€125m
EVE (10)
€123m
FUL (9)
€123m
COV (13)
€99m
IPS (13)
€85m
HUL (12)
€52m
Hull's defence is €209m less valuable than Manchester United's (€52m vs €261m).
England: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Manchester City
Arsenal
Chelsea
Brentford
Newcastle
Everton
Leeds
Brighton
Sunderland
Ipswich
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Fulham
Coventry
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Tottenham