IA Akranes are tipped to win this Icelandic Cup clash, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 20% chance of a draw and a 26% chance of a Grindavik victory. The model predicts an average of 4.3 goals, leaning toward a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is 6 + goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for IA Akranes, with a 7.7% probability. Home side IA Akranes have scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 1.33 at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Grindavik, playing away, average 1.38 goals scored and 2.77 conceded against similar opponents. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (93.5%), Under 7.5 (92.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (92.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8%), Home +2 handicap (87.3%), Under 6.5 (85.4%), Away over 0.5 goals (82.8%) and Over 2.5 (80.4%). IA Akranes’ unbeaten run in their last five matches, highlighted by a 1-1 draw with FH hafnarfjordur, contrasts with Grindavik’s recent loss, which saw them concede six goals to Fylkir.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, IA Akranes, failed to deliver, as the match finished 1-1, a draw that defied the model’s 55% home win pick. The upset was highlighted by IA Akranes’ unbeaten run in their last five games, yet they could not secure victory. The model’s selection for a home win was incorrect. The model’s other picks performed largely as expected: Over 1.5 goals hit at 93.5%, Under 7.5 hit at 92.8%, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 92.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 89.8%, Home +2 handicap hit at 87.3%, Under 6.5 hit at 85.4%, Away over 0.5 goals hit at 82.8%, while Over 2.5 missed at 80.4%. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, but the overall outcome was a surprise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
IA Akranes win✗ Miss
54.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grindavik win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IA Akranes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.60
1.47
1.24
2.00
2.08
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.52
1.72
1.40
1.33
1.70
2.30
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
1.00
-
-
4.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
2.57
1.54
2.69
1.53
2.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
2.71
1.36
2.64
1.38
2.77
vs Weaker (5)
2.60
2.00
2.50
3.00
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.5%
Under 1.5
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
80.4%
Under 2.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.5%
Under 3.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.9%
No
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
1-1 ✓
6.6%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
2-0
4.4%
4-1
4.2%
IA Akranes goals ↓
Grindavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.9%
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
1
2.8%
6.6%
5.3%
3.1%
1.4%
2
4.4%
7.7%
6.8%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.7%
6.5%
5.8%
3.4%
1.5%
4
2.4%
4.2%
3.7%
2.2%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IA Akranes goals (down), columns = Grindavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
IA Akranes and Grindavik are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
IA Akranes is 1.00 goals worse than Grindavik in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 3.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
IA Akranes is 0.50 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IA Akranes or Draw✓ Hit
74.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
20%
26%
covers IA Akranes + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes or Grindavik✗ Miss
80.2%
Avg Implied -
55%
20%
26%
covers IA Akranes + Grindavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grindavik✓ Hit
45.4%
Avg Implied -
55%
20%
26%
covers Draw + Grindavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.2%
Under
7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
47.0%
Under
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
25.4%
Under
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.5%
Under
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IA Akranes, so a minus line means IA Akranes give that many goals of a start and Grindavik receive them. At -1, IA Akranes must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IA Akranes win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IA Akranes)Actual: Grindavik
IA Akranes -2
19.7%
Draw -2
15.9%
Grindavik +2
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (IA Akranes)Actual: Grindavik
IA Akranes -1
35.6%
Draw -1
19.0%
Grindavik +1
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (IA Akranes)Actual: IA Akranes
IA Akranes +1
74.4%
Draw +1
12.9%
Grindavik -1
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (IA Akranes)Actual: IA Akranes
IA Akranes +2
87.3%
Draw +2
7.6%
Grindavik -2
5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.71
0.41
0.77
0.77
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.56
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.40
0.69
1.69
0.47
1.18
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
1.50
0.64
1.64
0.38
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
20% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IA Akranes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.03
0.76
0.82
1.23
1.31
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.80
1.16
0.73
0.87
0.90
1.60
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.50
-
-
3.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.17
0.85
1.00
1.06
1.29
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.21
0.73
1.00
1.00
1.38
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (IA Akranes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IA Akranes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
IA Akranes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →