This highly anticipated matchup in the Sweden: Allsvenskan pits IFK Goteborg against IF Elfsborg, with both teams boasting recent form that could swing the outcome either way. IFK Goteborg is coming off a draw, while IF Elfsborg has been on a 3-game winning run, albeit with a recent loss. The model's predictions suggest a finely balanced contest, with IFK Goteborg favored to win at 40% probability, a draw at 30%, and IF Elfsborg at 30%.
The expected total goals stands at 2.5, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring at a 14.1% probability. IFK Goteborg has a history of scoring 0.67 goals at home against stronger opponents, conceding 1.5 goals, while IF Elfsborg averages 1 goal when away against weaker opponents, conceding 1.6 goals.
The model's selection is the under 3.5 goals, occurring at 76.7% probability, while the over 21.5 fouls selection is at 72% and the over 1.5 goals selection at 71.6%. IFK Goteborg has a 40% chance of winning, a 30% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing. The suggested picks include under 3.5 goals (76.7%), over 21.5 fouls (72%), and over 1.5 goals (71.6%).
Results analysis
The match finished 1-1, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win - disappointed. The model had given the home side a 40 % chance, but the result proved otherwise. The final score of 1-1 matched the actual result of a draw. The model’s selection of a home win was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit, Under 6.5 hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit, Away under 3.5 goals hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit, and Under 5.5 hit. Each hit carried a probability of 99.6 %, 98.7 %, 98.0 %, 97.9 %, 97.2 %, 97.2 %, 97.1 % and 96.1 % respectively. The teams ended level after both sides had come off recent draws, with IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg each securing a point in a tightly contested encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
IFK Goteborg win✗ Miss
40.1%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.57
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.65
Dafabet
2.65
Unibet
2.65
Bet365
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Draw✓ Hit
29.7%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.37
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.50
Dafabet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.43
IF Elfsborg win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 36.2% · @ 2.57
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
888Sport
2.60
William Hil
2.60
Dafabet
2.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
IFK Goteborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
1.53
1.13
1.20
1.40
1.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.80
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (25)
1.44
1.48
1.33
1.17
1.54
1.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.27
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.22
1.61
1.69
1.31
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.71
2.50
1.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.6%
@ 1.23-4.3%
Under 1.5
28.4%
@ 3.86+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.06
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.4%
@ 1.77-8.8%
Under 2.5
55.6%
@ 2.01+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.84
SBO
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.04
Pinnacle
2.02
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
@ 2.85-9.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
@ 1.38+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.99
10Bet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.85
Under
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
@ 1.59-7.3%
No
49.1%
@ 2.22+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.60
No
Betfair
2.30
William Hil
2.30
888Sport
2.30
BetVictor
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%@ 6.24+6.9%
1-0
10.1%@ 9.27+5.3%
0-0
9.9%@ 10.90+5.8%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.01+3.6%
0-1
8.4%@ 9.21+3.5%
2-0
7.6%@ 13.02+4.1%
1-2
7.2%@ 9.11+2.3%
0-2
5.4%@ 12.87+1.9%
IFK Goteborg goals ↓
IF Elfsborg goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
8.4%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.2%
2.7%
0.8%
2
7.6%
8.5%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
3
3.4%
3.8%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = IFK Goteborg goals (down), columns = IF Elfsborg goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Malmo FF
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
IFK Goteborg is 0.42 points worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of average points per game (1.21 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
IFK Goteborg is 0.16 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals scored per game (1.26 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
IFK Goteborg is 1.05 goals worse than IF Elfsborg in terms of goals conceded per game (2.05 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
IFK Goteborg is 3.2 percentage points better than IF Elfsborg in terms of average possession (51% vs 48%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
IFK Goteborg
For 7.1 · Against 5.0 · Total 12.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IF Elfsborg
For 4.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.6 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
IFK Goteborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.6
12.1
11.1
3.9
3.8
3.9
25.1
25.1
25.1
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
9.8
12.0
3.1
3.0
3.3
26.6
29.2
23.0
vs Similar (43)
11.7
12.6
10.9
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.8
24.2
25.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
67%
68%
65%
48%
50%
46%
76%
82%
70%
% under line
33%
32%
35%
52%
50%
54%
24%
18%
30%
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.5
10.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
24.2
23.1
25.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.0
9.6
10.5
3.5
3.4
3.6
24.1
22.9
25.6
vs Weaker (13)
9.4
9.3
9.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
24.9
24.3
25.2
% over line
53%
52%
55%
42%
48%
36%
78%
70%
86%
% under line
47%
48%
45%
58%
52%
64%
22%
30%
14%
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.3
Sirius
11.1
BK Hacken
10.8
IF Brommapojkarna
10.8
Orgryte IS
10.6
Djurgardens IF
10.6
Gais
10.4
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Vasteras SK FK
10.3
Degerfors IF
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.2
Mjallby AIF
10.1
Halmstad
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
Malmo FF
9.9
IF Elfsborg
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.3
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Gais
3.8
Malmo FF
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.7
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Hammarby FF
3.7
Halmstad
3.6
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Djurgardens IF
25.8
Malmo FF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Sirius
25.4
Mjallby AIF
25.3
Degerfors IF
25.2
Gais
24.9
Vasteras SK FK
24.8
Hammarby FF
24.8
BK Hacken
24.7
IF Brommapojkarna
24.1
IF Elfsborg
24.0
AIK Stockholm
23.9
Halmstad
23.7
Kalmar FF
23.4
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
61.3%
@ 1.62+4.2%
Under 9.5
38.7%
@ 2.15-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.69
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Under
Pinnacle
2.25
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.18
1xBet
2.15
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.5%
Under 3.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
71.4%
Under 21.5
28.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
IFK Goteborg or Draw✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
+6.0%
40%
30%
30%
covers IFK Goteborg + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Superbet
1.47
IFK Goteborg or IF Elfsborg✗ Miss
70.3%
Avg Implied 72.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.1%
40%
30%
30%
covers IFK Goteborg + IF Elfsborg
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Draw or IF Elfsborg✓ Hit
59.9%
Avg Implied 63.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
-3.9%
40%
30%
30%
covers Draw + IF Elfsborg
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
1xBet
1.47
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
IFK Goteborg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.5%
@ 1.25-0.9%
Under
26.5%
@ 3.63+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.86
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
888Sport
3.70
Superbet
3.60
IFK Goteborg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.4%
@ 2.24-3.4%
Under
61.6%
@ 1.60+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.34
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Superbet
1.61
888Sport
1.60
IFK Goteborg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 4.97-3.7%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.15+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.14
IFK Goteborg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
@ 11.85-3.4%
Under
95.4%
@ 1.03+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
15.00
888Sport
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.5%
@ 1.25-7.0%
Under
32.5%
@ 3.65+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.90
Superbet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.65
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.0%
@ 2.23-10.7%
Under
69.0%
@ 1.60+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.33
Marathonbet
2.29
1xBet
2.29
Betano
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.62
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.60
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 4.93-8.4%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.15+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.20
1xBet
5.20
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
IF Elfsborg over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 11.45-5.5%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
13.00
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Betfair
10.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to IFK Goteborg, so a minus line means IFK Goteborg give that many goals of a start and IF Elfsborg receive them. At -1, IFK Goteborg must win by two or more to land; a one-goal IFK Goteborg win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (IFK Goteborg)Actual: IF Elfsborg
IFK Goteborg -2
6.8%
@ 10.22-1.8%
Draw -2
12.2%
@ 6.69-1.1%
IF Elfsborg +2
81.0%
@ 1.13+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
10.50
Superbet
9.70
Marathonbet
6.90
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
6.75
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap -1 (IFK Goteborg)Actual: IF Elfsborg
IFK Goteborg -1
19.0%
@ 4.92+0.9%
Draw -1
21.1%
@ 4.22+0.0%
IF Elfsborg +1
59.9%
@ 1.46-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Away
Superbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (IFK Goteborg)Actual: IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg +1
69.8%
@ 1.49+9.6%
Draw +1
17.7%
@ 4.21-3.6%
IF Elfsborg -1
12.6%
@ 4.78-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
Superbet
4.30
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Away
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Handicap +2 (IFK Goteborg)Actual: IFK Goteborg
IFK Goteborg +2
87.4%
@ 1.14+10.0%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 6.62-4.6%
IF Elfsborg -2
3.9%
@ 9.54-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Marathonbet
5.05
Away
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Superbet
9.90
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
IFK Goteborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.47
0.47
0.73
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.20
0.00
0.67
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.68
0.58
0.42
0.85
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.47
0.67
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.65
0.46
0.62
0.40
0.70
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.43
0.50
1.00
0.80
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
67.4%
@ 1.34-2.2%
Under 0.5
32.6%
@ 3.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.25
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.0%
@ 2.56-4.3%
Under 1.5
68.0%
@ 1.45+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.67
Pinnacle
2.67
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Unibet
1.46
BetVictor
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.7%
@ 6.18-5.3%
Under 2.5
90.3%
@ 1.09+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
IFK Goteborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.1%
@ 2.00-4.4%
Under
57.9%
@ 1.74+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
IFK Goteborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.7%
@ 6.01-4.7%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.10+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Betano
5.90
Superbet
5.90
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
IFK Goteborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 17.67-3.3%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
42.7%
@ 1.99-4.0%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.74+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.76
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.3%
@ 5.99-3.2%
Under
87.7%
@ 1.10+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.85
Betano
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 17.25-3.6%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
IFK Goteborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.67
0.73
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.33
0.67
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.80
0.75
0.75
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (IF Elfsborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
IF Elfsborg
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
1.33
0.60
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.96
1.23
0.69
0.20
1.30
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.29
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (IFK Goteborg) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.20-1.7%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 4.17+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Betano
4.20
William Hil
4.20
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.9%
@ 1.95-6.9%
Under 1.5
59.1%
@ 1.79+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Superbet
1.97
Betano
1.95
888Sport
1.95
Under
Betano
1.82
William Hil
1.80
888Sport
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.0%
@ 3.96-8.4%
Under 2.5
85.0%
@ 1.21+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
1xBet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
888Sport
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
IFK Goteborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.4%
@ 1.69-5.4%
Under
50.6%
@ 2.04+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
IFK Goteborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.0%
@ 4.38-6.2%
Under
85.0%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.45
1xBet
4.30
Betano
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
IFK Goteborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.25-5.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
IF Elfsborg over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
51.4%
@ 1.69-3.5%
Under
48.6%
@ 2.05+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Under
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.02
IF Elfsborg over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.33-5.8%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.18+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.30
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
IF Elfsborg over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 10.75-6.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.03
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.1%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
888Sport
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.03
888Sport
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.7%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
888Sport
1.14
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.5%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.14
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
1.10
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.7%
1.10
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.07
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
1.14
Superbet
1.15
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.17
Betano
1.20
1xBet
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
1.15
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
888Sport
1.15
10Bet
1.14
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.0%
1.21
Betano
1.25
888Sport
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+8.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
-
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.0%
1.13
Superbet
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.7%
1.38
Superbet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.5%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.9%
1.35
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.6%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
-4.3%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.3%
1.29
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
888Sport
1.30
-2.1%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
IFK Goteborg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sam Larsson57%
Hjörtur Hermannsson20%
Sebastian Clemmensen19%
Tobias Heintz17%
Alfons Borén17%
Rockson Yeboah13%
David Kruse11%
Benjamin Brantlind11%
Filip Ottosson7%
Felix Eriksson6%
August Erlingmark6%
Adam Bergmark Wiberg5%
Jonas Bager0%
Kolbeinn Thordarson0%
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Imam Jagne0%
Max Fenger0%
Saidou Alioum Moubarak0%
Viktor Andersson0%
Elis Bishesari0%
Tiago Coimbra0%
Noah Tolf0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Oliver Månsson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonas Bager50%
Kolbeinn Thordarson50%
Tobias Heintz28%
August Erlingmark22%
Hjörtur Hermannsson20%
Felix Eriksson19%
Max Fenger18%
Imam Jagne17%
David Kruse17%
Adam Bergmark Wiberg16%
Saidou Alioum Moubarak15%
Filip Ottosson14%
Tiago Coimbra14%
Rockson Yeboah13%
Benjamin Brantlind11%
Alexander Jallow8%
Sebastian Clemmensen6%
Sam Larsson0%
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist0%
Viktor Andersson0%
Elis Bishesari0%
Noah Tolf0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Borén0%
Oliver Månsson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tobias Heintz17%
Adam Bergmark Wiberg16%
Sam Larsson14%
Sebastian Clemmensen12%
Max Fenger9%
Noah Tolf9%
Saidou Alioum Moubarak8%
Rockson Yeboah7%
Felix Eriksson6%
David Kruse6%
Hjörtur Hermannsson0%
Jonas Bager0%
Kolbeinn Thordarson0%
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist0%
Filip Ottosson0%
Alexander Jallow0%
August Erlingmark0%
Imam Jagne0%
Viktor Andersson0%
Elis Bishesari0%
Tiago Coimbra0%
Benjamin Brantlind0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Borén0%
Oliver Månsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tobias Heintz33%
Max Fenger18%
August Erlingmark17%
Adam Bergmark Wiberg16%
Sam Larsson14%
Sebastian Clemmensen12%
Benjamin Brantlind11%
Saidou Alioum Moubarak8%
Felix Eriksson6%
Hjörtur Hermannsson0%
Jonas Bager0%
Kolbeinn Thordarson0%
Ramon Pascal Lundqvist0%
Filip Ottosson0%
Alexander Jallow0%
Imam Jagne0%
David Kruse0%
Viktor Andersson0%
Elis Bishesari0%
Tiago Coimbra0%
Rockson Yeboah0%
Noah Tolf0%
Issaka Seidu0%
Alfons Borén0%
Oliver Månsson0%
IF Elfsborg
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Leo Östman26%
Ari Sigurpálsson25%
Arbër Zeneli19%
Julius Magnusson17%
Frederik Ihler14%
Momoh Ibrahim Kamara13%
Taylor Silverholt8%
Niklas Hult6%
Simon Olsson6%
Simon Hedlund0%
Rasmus Wikström0%
Per Frick0%
Thomas Isherwood0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Sebastian Holmén0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Buhari Ibrahim0%
Julius Beck0%
Altti Hellemaa0%
Gottfrid Rapp0%
Rufai Mohammed0%
Frode Aronsson0%
Ozor Victor Okeke0%
Sven Ossian Nordvall0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sebastian Holmén27%
Altti Hellemaa20%
Rasmus Wikström18%
Julius Magnusson17%
Simon Olsson17%
Frederik Ihler14%
Julius Beck13%
Arbër Zeneli12%
Niklas Hult11%
Taylor Silverholt8%
Momoh Ibrahim Kamara7%
Ari Sigurpálsson6%
Thomas Isherwood5%
Isak Pettersson5%
Leo Östman5%
Simon Hedlund0%
Per Frick0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Buhari Ibrahim0%
Gottfrid Rapp0%
Rufai Mohammed0%
Frode Aronsson0%
Ozor Victor Okeke0%
Sven Ossian Nordvall0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Momoh Ibrahim Kamara20%
Julius Magnusson17%
Taylor Silverholt15%
Julius Beck13%
Arbër Zeneli12%
Niklas Hult11%
Frederik Ihler7%
Rufai Mohammed7%
Simon Hedlund6%
Simon Olsson6%
Thomas Isherwood5%
Rasmus Wikström0%
Per Frick0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Sebastian Holmén0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Buhari Ibrahim0%
Altti Hellemaa0%
Gottfrid Rapp0%
Leo Östman0%
Frode Aronsson0%
Ozor Victor Okeke0%
Sven Ossian Nordvall0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Momoh Ibrahim Kamara33%
Julius Magnusson11%
Taylor Silverholt8%
Niklas Hult6%
Simon Hedlund0%
Arbër Zeneli0%
Rasmus Wikström0%
Simon Olsson0%
Per Frick0%
Thomas Isherwood0%
Isak Pettersson0%
Sebastian Holmén0%
Ari Sigurpálsson0%
Alexander Jensen0%
Frederik Ihler0%
Buhari Ibrahim0%
Julius Beck0%
Altti Hellemaa0%
Gottfrid Rapp0%
Rufai Mohammed0%
Leo Östman0%
Frode Aronsson0%
Ozor Victor Okeke0%
Sven Ossian Nordvall0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg have a similar squad value (both €18m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
IFK Goteborg's attack is €3m more valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€8m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
IFK Goteborg's defence is €2m less valuable than IF Elfsborg's (€6m vs €7m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Hammarby FF
Djurgardens IF
BK Hacken
AIK Stockholm
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad