Igalo vs Lovćen Result & Analysis

Date: 24/05/2026

Time: 15:30

Final 2-4

Igalo

30%

31%

39%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Lovćen

Montenegro: Second League

Referee: -

Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated match between Igalo and Lovćen in the Montenegro: Second League is finely balanced, with the recent form of both teams adding an extra layer of intrigue. Igalo is coming off a draw, having been held to a 0-0 score by Zeta, while Lovćen is looking to bounce back from a 0-3 defeat to Mladost Lješko Polje. The model predicts an away win for Lovćen, with a 39% chance of victory.

The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal total. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6% chance of occurrence. Lovćen has a strong away record, scoring an average of 1.43 goals and conceding 1.0, particularly against stronger opponents. Igalo, on the other hand, has struggled at home, scoring 0.89 goals and conceding 1.56 against weaker teams.

The model's selection for this match is Lovćen to win, with a 39% chance. Other model selections include Under 3.5 goals, which has an 80.9% chance of occurring, and Lovćen to win with a 1.5 goal margin, which has a 12.5% chance. Lovćen has a 39% chance of winning, Igalo has a 30% chance, and a draw has a 31% chance.

Results analysis

The win extends Lovćen's run, but in a high-scoring affair that defied expectations. The final score was 2-4, with the actual result being an away win, in line with the model's call. The model correctly picked the away team as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, an away win, was correct.

The most likely scores predicted by the model included 1-1, 0-0, and 0-1, each with a probability of less than 12%. The model suggested an Under 3.5 total, which missed, with a probability of 80.9%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Igalo win✗ Miss

29.9%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

31.2%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Lovćen win✓ Hit

38.9%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Igalo

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.5

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	1.60	0.71	1.64	0.38	1.56
vs Stronger (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
vs Similar (9)	0.22	1.89	0.40	1.80	0.00	2.00
vs Weaker (21)	0.67	1.48	0.89	1.56	0.50	1.42
Clean sheet %	33% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Lovćen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Lovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.4

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.90	1.20	0.81	1.06	1.00	1.36
vs Stronger (15)	1.33	0.93	1.25	0.88	1.43	1.00
vs Similar (15)	0.47	1.47	0.38	1.25	0.57	1.71
vs Weaker (0)	-	-	-	-	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+1pp vs league)

This opponent (Igalo) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

67.1%

Under 1.5

32.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

39.1%

Under 2.5

60.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

19.1%

Under 3.5

80.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: Yes

Yes

46.7%

53.3%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

14.6%

0-0

11.9%

0-1

11.5%

1-0

9.6%

1-2

8.1%

0-2

7.8%

2-1

6.9%

2-0

5.6%

Igalo goals ↓

	Lovćen goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	12%	11%	7.8%	3.2%	1.0%
1	9.6%	15%	8.1%	3.3%	1.0%
2	5.6%	6.9%	4.2%	1.7%	0.5%
3	1.9%	2.4%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Igalo goals (down), columns = Lovćen goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.06

Grbalj

1.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.78

Berane

1.39

Kom

1.39

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.34

Lovćen

1.33

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.31

Zeta

1.00

Igalo

0.89

Internacional Podgorica

0.64

Brskovo

0.00

Igalo is 0.44 points worse than Lovćen in terms of average points per game (0.89 vs 1.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Otrant-Olympic

2.25

Grbalj

1.75

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.42

Iskra (Montenegro)

1.42

Kom

1.31

Berane

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.08

Lovćen

0.94

Internacional Podgorica

0.86

Igalo

0.58

Brskovo

0.50

Zeta

0.50

Igalo is 0.37 goals worse than Lovćen in terms of goals scored per game (0.58 vs 0.94).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Zeta

0.50

Otrant-Olympic

0.86

Iskra (Montenegro)

0.94

Berane

1.00

Grbalj

1.17

Kom

1.19

Lovćen

1.25

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.28

Rudar (Montenegro)

1.29

Igalo

1.55

Internacional Podgorica

2.11

Brskovo

3.50

Igalo is 0.30 goals worse than Lovćen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.55 vs 1.25).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 3.5	80.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (24)

€2m

OTR (27)

€1m

R( (36)

€0m

GRB (36)

€0m

LOV (45)

€0m

BER (36)

€0m

KOM (37)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

ML (0)

€0m

OTR (0)

€0m

BER (0)

€0m

GRB (0)

€0m

KOM (0)

€0m

LOV (0)

€0m

R( (0)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Igalo vs Lovćen · H/A from IGA

Date	H/A	Game	Score
04/04/26	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	0-0
30/11/25	H	IGA Vs Lovćen	0-4
28/09/25	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	0-1
27/04/25	H	IGA Vs Lovćen	2-1
12/03/25	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	1-1
26/10/24	H	IGA Vs Lovćen	2-0
01/09/24	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	1-0
18/05/24	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	2-0

Igalo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
20/05/26	A	Berane Vs IGA	0-1
16/05/26	H	IGA Vs Rudar (Montenegro)	0-0
10/05/26	A	Internacional Podgorica Vs IGA	3-1
02/05/26	H	IGA Vs Otrant-Olympic	0-2
26/04/26	A	Grbalj Vs IGA	0-1
18/04/26	H	IGA Vs Iskra (Montenegro)	0-1
12/04/26	A	Mladost Lješkopolje Vs IGA	2-0
08/04/26	A	Kom Vs IGA	2-0
04/04/26	A	Lovćen Vs IGA	0-0
28/03/26	H	IGA Vs Berane	0-2

Lovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
20/05/26	H	LOV Vs Kom	1-0
16/05/26	H	LOV Vs Berane	0-0
10/05/26	A	Rudar (Montenegro) Vs LOV	1-2
03/05/26	H	LOV Vs Internacional Podgorica	1-0
26/04/26	A	Otrant-Olympic Vs LOV	2-1
18/04/26	H	LOV Vs Grbalj	0-2
12/04/26	A	Iskra (Montenegro) Vs LOV	1-0
08/04/26	H	LOV Vs Mladost Lješkopolje	1-2
04/04/26	H	LOV Vs Igalo	0-0
28/03/26	A	Kom Vs LOV	0-0

📊 9. Overall Statistics

Igalo

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLLDW	1.04
Home	WLLLD	1.29
Away	LLWLW	0.81

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	26%	38%	15%
AVG goals	2.34	2.58	2.12
Over 1.5 %	68%	75%	62%
Over 2.5 %	38%	46%	31%
Over 3.5 %	26%	25%	27%
Scored	0.92	1.29	0.58
Conceded	1.42	1.29	1.54
BTTS	30%	25%	35%
Clean Sheet	34%	38%	31%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

Lovćen

Montenegro: Second League

Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWWDW	1.40
Home	LLWDW	1.36
Away	DDLLW	1.44

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	40%	40%	40%
AVG goals	2.28	2.40	2.16
Over 1.5 %	60%	64%	56%
Over 2.5 %	40%	40%	40%
Over 3.5 %	18%	20%	16%
Scored	1.04	1.08	1.00
Conceded	1.24	1.32	1.16
BTTS	34%	32%	36%
Clean Sheet	38%	40%	36%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 10. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Otrant-Olympic	36	74	64%	2.1	81	31	+50	3.1	78%	58%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.2	0.9	-
2	Grbalj	36	67	58%	1.9	63	42	+21	2.9	86%	53%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.2	-
3	Iskra (Montenegro)	36	64	47%	1.8	51	34	+17	2.4	64%	42%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	0.9	-
4	Rudar (Montenegro)	38	51	37%	1.3	54	49	+5	2.7	71%	53%	32%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.3	-
5	Berane	36	50	33%	1.4	45	36	+9	2.2	72%	36%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.0	-
6	Kom	36	50	42%	1.4	47	43	+4	2.5	67%	42%	28%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.3	1.2	-
7	Lovćen	36	48	39%	1.3	34	45	-11	2.2	56%	36%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	1.2	-
8	Mladost Lješkopolje	36	47	36%	1.3	39	46	-7	2.4	53%	42%	31%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	0	0	0	1.1	1.3	-
9	Igalo	38	34	21%	0.9	22	59	-37	2.1	63%	34%	24%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.6	-
10	Internacional Podgorica	36	23	14%	0.6	31	76	-45	3.0	86%	56%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.9	2.1	-
11	Zeta	2	2	0%	1.0	1	1	+0	1.0	50%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	-
12	Brskovo	2	0	0%	0.0	1	7	-6	4.0	100%	100%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.5	3.5	-

Montenegro: Second League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

← all matches

Igalo vs Lovćen Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Igalo

Lovćen

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🔥 6. Top picks for this game

💰 7. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 8. Games History

Head-to-head

Igalo

Lovćen

📊 9. Overall Statistics

🏆 10. League Table

A Pro feature