Ilirija face Beltinci with the model favouring an away win, a 44% chance against Ilirija’s 29% home win probability and a 28% draw likelihood. The expected total is 2.7 goals, but the most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Ilirija, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.58 conceded, while Beltinci, on the road, averages 1.5 scored and only 0.75 conceded. The match is likely to be tight, with both sides showing modest scoring and defensive output.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.9%), Away +2 handicap (87.7%), and Under 4.5 (85.7%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability. Ilirija come off a 1-2 loss to Slovan Ljubljana, while Beltinci also lost 1-3 to Jesenice, suggesting both teams may seek a decisive result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ilirija win
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Beltinci win
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ilirija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.53
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.57
1.50
1.58
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.83
2.27
0.87
1.53
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.90
0.67
2.25
0.67
1.44
0.67
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
1.22
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.6%
Under 2.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.1%
No
43.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
Ilirija goals ↓
Beltinci goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
8.7%
7.6%
3.9%
1.5%
1
6.6%
13%
9.2%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.7%
7.2%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.9%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Beltinci goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Ilirija is 1.10 points worse than Beltinci in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Ilirija is 0.57 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Ilirija is 0.90 goals worse than Beltinci in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ilirija or Draw
56.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
44%
covers Ilirija + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija or Beltinci
72.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
44%
covers Ilirija + Beltinci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Beltinci
71.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
28%
44%
covers Draw + Beltinci
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ilirija over/under 0.5
Over
70.0%
Under
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5
Over
33.9%
Under
66.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5
Over
78.5%
Under
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5
Over
45.4%
Under
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5
Over
20.0%
Under
80.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 3.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ilirija, so a minus line means Ilirija give that many goals of a start and Beltinci receive them. At -1, Ilirija must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ilirija win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ilirija)
Ilirija -2
4.0%
Draw -2
8.3%
Beltinci +2
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ilirija)
Ilirija -1
12.3%
Draw -1
16.4%
Beltinci +1
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ilirija)
Ilirija +1
56.3%
Draw +1
21.2%
Beltinci -1
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ilirija)
Ilirija +2
77.4%
Draw +2
13.5%
Beltinci -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ilirija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.91
0.33
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
1.13
0.53
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.29
1.17
0.42
0.78
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ilirija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.65
1.17
0.75
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Beltinci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Beltinci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.43
1.13
0.33
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.90
0.38
1.08
0.25
0.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.56
1.33
0.67
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Beltinci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Ilirija and Beltinci have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Ilirija and Beltinci have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Ilirija and Beltinci have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Ilirija and Beltinci have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Slovan Ljubljana
Jesenice
Bistrica
Triglav
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja