Ilirija's recent struggles, having lost two straight matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Beltinci, have created an intriguing storyline heading into their clash with Dravinja. The visitors, however, are riding a 2-game winning streak, having edged out Jesenice 1-0 in their last outing.
In a finely balanced contest, the model favours Dravinja to win away, predicting a 38% chance of victory. Ilirija, on the other hand, has a 34% chance of claiming the three points, while the draw is seen as a 28% possibility. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time.
Ilirija's home form against similar opponents has seen them average 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Dravinja, meanwhile, has averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road against similar opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, which is predicted to occur 77.5% of the time, with a 6% edge. Other model selections include Ilirija to win (34%), the draw (28%), and Dravinja to win (38%).
In a stunning upset, Ilirija's 1-0 win over Dravinja extends their current winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Dravinja, failed to come through, with the model predicting an Away win, but this call was incorrect. The model's selection was the Away win, with a pre-match probability of 38%. However, the model's call on the Over 1.5 goals was correct, with a probability of 77.5%, but this selection missed. The model's call on the most likely score of 2-1 was also incorrect, as the actual score was 1-0.
Ilirija| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.73 | 1.20 | 1.80 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 1.88 | 0.25 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.85 | 1.50 | 1.90 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Dravinja| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 1.47 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.38 | 1.88 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.00 | 1.35 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Dravinja goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 13% | 8.6% | 4.1% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Ilirija| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.38 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Dravinja| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.62 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.40 | 0.75 | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Ilirija| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.87 | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.25 | 0.88 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Dravinja| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.30 | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | 1.26 | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.26 | +6.2% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | H | 2-5 | |
| 19/04/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/10/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 10/03/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/08/23 | A | 0-0 |
Ilirija| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 06/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 08/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-3 |
Dravinja| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | - |
| 2 | Ilirija | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Slovan Ljubljana | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 4 | Jesenice | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bistrica | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 6 | Triglav | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 2.3 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Beltinci | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Rudar | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Dren Vrhnika | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Bilje | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | - |
| 11 | Primorje | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 | Krško | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Dekani | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 14 | Krka | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 15 | Brežice | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Dravinja | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | - |