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Ilirija vs Dravinja Result & Analysis

Date: 09/08/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Ilirija
Ilirija
Vs
34%
28%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dravinja
Dravinja
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Ilirija's recent struggles, having lost two straight matches, including a 1-3 defeat to Beltinci, have created an intriguing storyline heading into their clash with Dravinja. The visitors, however, are riding a 2-game winning streak, having edged out Jesenice 1-0 in their last outing.

In a finely balanced contest, the model favours Dravinja to win away, predicting a 38% chance of victory. Ilirija, on the other hand, has a 34% chance of claiming the three points, while the draw is seen as a 28% possibility. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1, occurring 13.2% of the time.

Ilirija's home form against similar opponents has seen them average 1.44 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. Dravinja, meanwhile, has averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded on the road against similar opponents.

The model's selection is Over 1.5, which is predicted to occur 77.5% of the time, with a 6% edge. Other model selections include Ilirija to win (34%), the draw (28%), and Dravinja to win (38%).

Results analysis

In a stunning upset, Ilirija's 1-0 win over Dravinja extends their current winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Dravinja, failed to come through, with the model predicting an Away win, but this call was incorrect. The model's selection was the Away win, with a pre-match probability of 38%. However, the model's call on the Over 1.5 goals was correct, with a probability of 77.5%, but this selection missed. The model's call on the most likely score of 2-1 was also incorrect, as the actual score was 1-0.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ilirija win✓ Hit
34.1%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.18
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.29
Unibet
2.28
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Bet365
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 27.9% · @ 3.22
Edge
-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.30
10Bet
3.30
Dafabet
3.30
Dravinja win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.90
Edge
+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.02
Pinnacle
3.01
10Bet
3.00
Dafabet
2.95

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-423L12L00D21W41W02L12L10W01L13LH·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.731.201.801.331.67
vs Stronger (8)0.621.880.252.001.001.75
vs Similar (20)1.401.851.501.901.301.80
vs Weaker (2)2.500.002.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D12L21W11D10W21W11D21W10WA·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05A·JES23/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.471.131.331.001.60
vs Stronger (8)1.381.881.752.001.001.75
vs Similar (20)1.001.351.001.001.001.70
vs Weaker (2)0.501.000.002.001.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.26+6.2%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 3.13-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.2%
@ 1.86+3.0%
Under 2.5
47.8%
@ 1.80-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Under
Unibet
1.86
Bet365
1.85
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Pinnacle
1.81
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.0%
@ 3.01+0.1%
Under 3.5
70.0%
@ 1.28-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.25
Superbet
3.15
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Betano
2.95
Under
Unibet
1.32
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.3%
@ 1.67+3.4%
No
42.7%
@ 1.95-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
No
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Betano
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.15+6.4%
1-2
8.6%@ 10.00+4.4%
2-1
8.0%@ 8.60+3.2%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.80+3.0%
0-0
7.5%@ 8.72+2.7%
1-0 ✓
7.2%@ 7.50+1.6%
0-2
6.4%@ 13.40+3.3%
2-2
5.7%@ 13.00+2.5%
Ilirija goals ↓
Dravinja goals →
01234
07.5%7.8%6.4%3.0%1.1%
17.2%13%8.6%4.1%1.5%
25.6%8.0%5.7%2.7%1.0%
32.5%3.6%2.6%1.2%0.4%
40.8%1.2%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ilirija goals (down), columns = Dravinja goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Ilirija is 0.33 points worse than Dravinja in terms of average points per game (0.90 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Ilirija is 0.20 goals better than Dravinja in terms of goals scored per game (1.27 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Ilirija is 0.27 goals worse than Dravinja in terms of goals conceded per game (1.73 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W02L00D01L31W02L10W00D01L13LH·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.930.330.930.730.93
vs Stronger (8)0.381.000.251.000.501.00
vs Similar (20)0.551.000.301.000.801.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D11D10W11D00D01L00D10W10WA·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05A·JES23/05
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.730.400.730.530.73
vs Stronger (8)0.620.880.751.000.500.75
vs Similar (20)0.400.750.300.700.500.80
vs Weaker (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

IlirijaIlirija

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W00D20W10W00D02L10W00D00DH·TAB03/04A·SLO08/04A·RUD11/04H·BIS17/04A·KRK24/04H·NAF30/04A·DRA06/05H·BIL09/05A·GOR15/05H·BEL22/05
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.870.870.600.73
vs Stronger (8)0.250.880.001.000.500.75
vs Similar (20)0.850.851.200.900.500.80
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Dravinja) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DravinjaDravinja

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D01L11D00D10W20W11D11D00DA·BEL28/03H·BRI04/04A·TRI11/04H·SLO19/04A·RUD25/04H·KRK30/04H·ILI06/05A·GOR11/05H·KRŠ16/05A·JES23/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.730.600.470.87
vs Stronger (8)0.751.001.001.000.501.00
vs Similar (20)0.600.600.700.300.500.90
vs Weaker (2)0.001.000.002.000.000.00
Clean sheet %40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dravinja over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.5%1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+6.2%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Ilirija and Dravinja have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Ilirija and Dravinja have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Ilirija and Dravinja have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Ilirija and Dravinja have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
0
ILI wins
2
Draws
4
DRA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ilirija vs Dravinja · H/A from ILI
DateH/AGameScore
06/05/26ADravinja Vs ILI2-1
25/10/25HILI Vs Dravinja2-5
19/04/25ADravinja Vs ILI1-1
06/10/24HILI Vs Dravinja0-1
10/03/24HILI Vs Dravinja1-3
20/08/23ADravinja Vs ILI0-0

IlirijaIlirija

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/05/26HILI Vs Beltinci1-3
15/05/26AGorica Vs ILI1-0
09/05/26HILI Vs Bilje1-0
06/05/26ADravinja Vs ILI2-1
30/04/26HILI Vs Nafta0-2
24/04/26AKrka Vs ILI1-4
17/04/26HILI Vs Bistrica2-1
11/04/26ARudar Vs ILI0-0
08/04/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs ILI2-1
03/04/26HILI Vs Tabor Sežana2-3

DravinjaDravinja

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/05/26AJesenice Vs DRA0-1
16/05/26HDRA Vs Krško2-1
11/05/26AGorica Vs DRA1-1
06/05/26HDRA Vs Ilirija2-1
30/04/26HDRA Vs Krka1-0
25/04/26ARudar Vs DRA1-1
19/04/26HDRA Vs Slovan Ljubljana2-1
11/04/26ATriglav Vs DRA2-1
04/04/26HDRA Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-1
28/03/26ABeltinci Vs DRA1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ilirija
Ilirija
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.88
HomeLWLWL0.84
AwayLDWLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%16%20%
AVG goals2.803.002.60
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.121.081.16
Conceded1.681.921.44
BTTS68%68%68%
Clean Sheet20%20%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Dravinja
Dravinja
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.32
HomeDWWWW1.54
AwayDLDDW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%31%
AVG goals2.522.042.96
Over 1.5 %76%62%88%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %18%8%27%
Scored1.140.961.31
Conceded1.381.081.65
BTTS44%46%42%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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