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Imisli FK vs Qaradağ Lökbatan Result & Analysis

Date: 08/03/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 1-0
Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Vs
41%
30%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Imisli FK win✓ Hit
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan win✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W03L32W11D10W02L03L02L20WA·QAR26/10H·KEŞ09/11A·KAP30/11H·SUM06/12A·ZIR10/12H·TUR16/12H·FK 07/02A·ARA14/02H·MOI21/02A·MIN01/03
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.892.391.112.110.672.67
vs Stronger (1)1.007.00--1.007.00
vs Similar (14)0.712.071.001.710.432.43
vs Weaker (3)1.672.331.503.502.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L21W02L30W20W03L10W01L10WH·ZIR25/10A·TUR02/11H·FK 08/11A·ARA01/12H·MOI05/12A·MIN10/12A·SƏB08/02H·NEF14/02A·ZAQ22/02H·QAR01/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.001.800.600.381.50
vs Stronger (2)0.501.001.000.000.002.00
vs Similar (12)1.081.171.710.710.201.80
vs Weaker (4)1.750.502.500.501.000.50
Clean sheet %44% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.4%
Under 1.5
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.0%
Under 2.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.1%
Under 3.5
77.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.6%
No
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0 ✓
10.8%
0-0
10.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.4%
2-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.2%
Imisli FK goals ↓
Qaradağ Lökbatan goals →
01234
010%8.4%5.2%1.8%0.5%
111%14%6.9%2.5%0.7%
28.0%8.6%4.6%1.6%0.4%
33.6%3.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%
41.2%1.3%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Imisli FK goals (down), columns = Qaradağ Lökbatan goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Imisli FK is 0.75 points worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of average points per game (0.71 vs 1.46).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Imisli FK is 0.32 goals worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Imisli FK is 1.54 goals worse than Qaradağ Lökbatan in terms of goals conceded per game (2.36 vs 0.82).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Imisli FKImisli FK

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W02L20W00D10W00D02L01L10WA·QAR26/10H·KEŞ09/11A·KAP30/11H·SUM06/12A·ZIR10/12H·TUR16/12H·FK 07/02A·ARA14/02H·MOI21/02A·MIN01/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.060.670.890.331.22
vs Stronger (1)0.005.00--0.005.00
vs Similar (14)0.500.710.710.570.290.86
vs Weaker (3)0.671.330.502.001.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D01L10W00D02L10W01L00DH·ZIR25/10A·TUR02/11H·FK 08/11A·ARA01/12H·MOI05/12A·MIN10/12A·SƏB08/02H·NEF14/02A·ZAQ22/02H·QAR01/03
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.440.390.800.200.000.62
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.250.420.430.290.000.60
vs Weaker (4)1.000.252.000.000.000.50
Clean sheet %72% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Imisli FKImisli FK

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L12L11D00D02L01L01L10WA·QAR26/10H·KEŞ09/11A·KAP30/11H·SUM06/12A·ZIR10/12H·TUR16/12H·FK 07/02A·ARA14/02H·MOI21/02A·MIN01/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.391.330.441.220.331.44
vs Stronger (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
vs Similar (14)0.211.360.291.140.141.57
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.001.501.000.00
Clean sheet %17% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Qaradağ Lökbatan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D12L21W01L20W20W01L00D00D10WH·ZIR25/10A·TUR02/11H·FK 08/11A·ARA01/12H·MOI05/12A·MIN10/12A·SƏB08/02H·NEF14/02A·ZAQ22/02H·QAR01/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.720.611.000.400.380.88
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.830.751.290.430.201.20
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.500.501.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Imisli FK) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Imisli FK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Imisli FK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qaradağ Lökbatan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
IF wins
0
Draws
1
QL wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Imisli FK vs Qaradağ Lökbatan · H/A from IF
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/22AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs IF4-0

Imisli FKImisli FK

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/23AMingəçevir Vs IF0-2
21/02/23HIF Vs MOIK0-2
14/02/23AAraz Vs IF3-0
07/02/23HIF Vs FK Qəbələ II0-2
16/12/22HIF Vs Turan II1-0
10/12/22AZira II Vs IF1-1
06/12/22HIF Vs Sumqayıt II3-2
30/11/22AKapaz II Vs IF3-0
09/11/22HIF Vs Keşlə II1-0
26/10/22AQarabağ II Vs IF1-0

Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/23HQL Vs Qarabağ II1-0
22/02/23AZaqatala Vs QL1-0
14/02/23HQL Vs Neftçi II1-0
08/02/23ASəbail II Vs QL3-0
10/12/22AMingəçevir Vs QL0-2
05/12/22HQL Vs MOIK3-0
01/12/22AAraz Vs QL2-0
08/11/22HQL Vs FK Qəbələ II2-1
02/11/22ATuran II Vs QL2-1
25/10/22HQL Vs Zira II0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW0.89
HomeWWWLL1.33
AwayLLDLW0.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%44%11%
AVG goals3.283.223.33
Over 1.5 %83%78%89%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %39%44%33%
Scored0.891.110.67
Conceded2.392.112.67
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet17%22%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Qaradağ Lökbatan
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.33
HomeDWWWW2.00
AwayLLWLL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %39%60%12%
AVG goals2.172.401.88
Over 1.5 %61%50%75%
Over 2.5 %39%50%25%
Over 3.5 %17%30%0%
Scored1.171.800.38
Conceded1.000.601.50
BTTS22%30%12%
Clean Sheet44%60%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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