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Inverness CT vs Hamilton Result & Analysis

Date: 02/05/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Vs
54%
26%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
H
Hamilton
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Inverness CT a 54% win probability against Hamilton in the Scotland: League One on 2026-05-02, with 26% for the draw and 20% for Hamilton. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).

Results analysis

Inverness CT finished 2-1 against Hamilton (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 54% home win, 26% draw and 20% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (77%), Under 3.5 (71%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Inverness CT win✓ Hit
54.3%
Avg Implied 65.5% · @ 1.37
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.37
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton win✗ Miss
19.9%
Avg Implied 13.9% · @ 6.45
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W11D31W11D11D11D20W10W11DA·KEL28/02H·MON07/03H·COV14/03H·PET17/03A·ALL21/03H·QUE27/03A·STE11/04A·PET14/04H·KEL18/04A·EAS25/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.702.290.641.060.75
vs Stronger (20)1.600.602.200.701.000.50
vs Similar (7)2.140.863.000.331.501.25
vs Weaker (3)0.671.001.001.000.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H
Hamilton

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L30W13L22D12L03L10W20W31WH·MON28/02H·STE03/03A·EAS07/03H·QUE14/03A·COV21/03H·KEL28/03A·STE04/04H·ALL11/04A·MON18/04H·PET25/04
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.201.530.871.531.53
vs Stronger (10)2.301.002.250.502.331.33
vs Similar (16)1.311.381.331.111.291.71
vs Weaker (4)0.501.001.000.500.001.50
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%8%016%125%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.3%
@ 1.56-7.5%
Under 2.5
48.7%
@ 2.22+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
Under 3.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
No
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
1-0
10.3%
2-0
10.0%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
Inverness CT goals ↓
Hamilton goals →
01234
07.7%5.3%3.1%1.0%0.3%
110%12%5.5%1.8%0.4%
210.0%9.8%4.8%1.6%0.4%
35.8%5.7%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.5%2.5%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Inverness CT goals (down), columns = Hamilton goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Inverness CT is 0.53 points better than Hamilton in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Inverness CT is 0.17 goals better than Hamilton in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Inverness CT is 0.50 goals better than Hamilton in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 5.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.8

🚩 Corners

130103452245226410515441394941010694A·EASH·KELA·PETA·STEH·QUEA·ALLH·PETH·COVH·MONA·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.7

🟨 Cards

7011113252231311222222257541344A·EASH·KELA·PETA·STEH·QUEA·ALLH·PETH·COVH·MONA·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 10.4 · Total 22.0

⚠️ Fouls

290111414615141513711101213759161010825202928182220142618A·EASH·KELA·PETA·STEH·QUEA·ALLH·PETH·COVH·MONA·KEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

H
Hamilton

For 6.1 · Against 5.7 · Total 11.8

🚩 Corners

190341453444116288625481077197817101471217H·PETA·MONH·ALLA·STEH·KELA·COVH·QUEA·EASH·STEH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.8

🟨 Cards

702111253111143113135411172H·PETA·MONH·ALLA·STEH·KELA·COVH·QUEA·EASH·STEH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 8.7 · Total 20.7

⚠️ Fouls

2901748381218111310136591031513131621112029231914132829H·PETA·MONH·ALLA·STEH·KELA·COVH·QUEA·EASH·STEH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.29.88.73.53.33.821.721.521.9
vs Stronger (31)9.510.58.43.22.73.621.121.021.2
vs Similar (11)7.67.08.23.63.83.523.624.822.7
vs Weaker (8)10.410.210.54.84.84.821.419.523.2
% over line42%46%38%48%46%50%52%54%50%
% under line58%54%62%52%54%50%48%46%50%
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

H
Hamilton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.410.610.23.43.03.721.021.920.1
vs Stronger (20)10.29.810.53.52.64.321.021.021.0
vs Similar (26)11.011.510.53.02.93.020.522.718.4
vs Weaker (4)7.89.06.55.55.55.523.821.026.5
% over line50%52%48%42%36%48%48%48%48%
% under line50%48%52%58%64%52%52%52%52%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.4
East Fife
9.7
Alloa
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.5
Inverness CT
9.2
Spartans
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.1
Forfar
8.8
Peterhead
8.8
Stenhousemuir
8.6
Queen of Sth
8.6
Montrose
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Alloa
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.3
Spartans
4.2
Montrose
3.8
East Fife
3.7
Inverness CT
3.5
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.3

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Stenhousemuir
25.3
Forfar
24.1
Queen of Sth
23.8
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.6
Montrose
22.4
Kelty Hearts
22.3
Clyde
22.1
Inverness CT
21.7
Hamilton
21.0
Cove Rangers
20.9
Spartans
20.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.1%
Under 9.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
46.3%
Under 3.5
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
52.6%
Under 21.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Inverness CT vs Hamilton · H/A from IC
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/26AHamilton Vs IC0-1
13/12/25HIC Vs Hamilton4-0
04/10/25AHamilton Vs IC3-1
18/04/23AHamilton Vs IC1-2
21/02/23AHamilton Vs IC2-1
18/02/23HIC Vs Hamilton0-3
18/10/22HIC Vs Hamilton0-1
29/04/22HIC Vs Hamilton4-0

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26AEast Fife Vs IC1-1
18/04/26HIC Vs Kelty Hearts1-0
14/04/26APeterhead Vs IC0-2
11/04/26AStenhousemuir Vs IC1-1
27/03/26HIC Vs Queen of Sth1-1
21/03/26AAlloa Vs IC1-1
17/03/26HIC Vs Peterhead3-1
14/03/26HIC Vs Cove Rangers1-1
07/03/26HIC Vs Montrose3-1
28/02/26AKelty Hearts Vs IC0-0

H
Hamilton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HHAM Vs Peterhead3-1
18/04/26AMontrose Vs HAM0-2
11/04/26HHAM Vs Alloa1-0
04/04/26AStenhousemuir Vs HAM3-0
28/03/26HHAM Vs Kelty Hearts1-2
21/03/26ACove Rangers Vs HAM2-2
14/03/26HHAM Vs Queen of Sth1-3
07/03/26AEast Fife Vs HAM0-3
03/03/26HHAM Vs Stenhousemuir0-1
28/02/26HHAM Vs Montrose1-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.96
HomeWDWDW2.12
AwayDDDWD1.81
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%62%50%
AVG goals2.342.622.08
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %38%46%31%
Over 3.5 %22%33%12%
Scored1.581.921.27
Conceded0.760.710.81
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet48%42%54%
Corners9.209.758.69
Cards3.543.293.77
H
Hamilton
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.40
HomeLLLWW1.48
AwayLWDLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.562.242.88
Over 1.5 %76%68%84%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.281.161.40
Conceded1.281.081.48
BTTS42%36%48%
Clean Sheet34%40%28%
Corners10.3810.6010.16
Cards3.363.003.72

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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