Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Result & Analysis

Istra 1961 will face Dinamo Zagreb in a match that the model favours for the away side, with a 42% chance of a Dinamo victory, 30% for a draw and 28% for an Istra win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly high scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.2% probability. Istra, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages one goal scored and 1.25 conceded, while Dinamo, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.38 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 11.5 corners at 88.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 85.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.5%, Under 3.5 at 78.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.9%, Under 9.5 corners at 71.5% and Over 1.5 at 70.0%. These picks reflect the expected intensity of the game, with a high likelihood of many fouls, cards and a low corner count.

The upset came early as Istra 1961 snatched a 1-0 win, overturning the model’s favourite, an away triumph that had a 42% probability. The pre-match pick was therefore wrong. The final score of 1-0 matched the actual result, confirming a home victory. The model’s selection of Under 11.5 corners, hit at 88.7%, and Over 19.5 fouls, hit at 85.0%, were both correct, as were Over 2.5 cards at 84.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.5%, Under 3.5 at 78.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 72.9%, and Under 9.5 corners at 71.5%. Only the Over 1.5 pick, at 70.0%, missed. The match was a surprise, with Istra’s recent form noted as a draw, while Dinamo also entered from a draw.