PythiaFootballBETA
This highly anticipated match between Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka is finely balanced, with all three possible outcomes holding significant weight. Istra 1961's recent form has been marred by two consecutive defeats, with their last outing ending in a 2-3 loss to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. On the other hand, HNK Rijeka is on a three-game winning streak, having recently edged Ilves 1-0.
The model predicts an away win for HNK Rijeka, with a 40% chance of success. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The model's most likely score is a 1-1 draw, with a 14.4% probability.
In terms of scoring and conceding, Istra 1961 has averaged 0.86 goals at home against stronger opponents, while conceding 2 goals on average. HNK Rijeka, meanwhile, has averaged 1 goal away against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.12 goals on average.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with a 79.9% chance of occurrence, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.6% chance of occurrence. The home win percentage is 30%, the draw percentage is 31%, and the away win percentage is 40%.
A surprise draw in Croatia's HNL as Istra 1961 held HNK Rijeka to a 0-0 scoreline, extending their recent run of mixed form after two straight defeats. The win extends their run of not conceding more than 2 goals in their last 5 matches. In a major upset, the pre-match favourite, HNK Rijeka, failed to come through, with the model's selection, an Away win, being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as the actual result was a Draw. The model's selection, an Away win, had a pre-match probability of 40%. The model's other selection, Over 21.5 fouls, hit, with a probability of 79.9%, while Under 3.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 79.6%.
Istra 1961| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.33 | 1.06 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.89 | 1.78 | 0.80 | 2.20 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.29 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-14pp vs league) | |||||
HNK Rijeka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 0.83 | 1.73 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.82 | 0.36 | 2.43 | 0.29 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.12 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| HNK Rijeka goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 7.8% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Istra 1961HNK RijekaIstra 1961| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 23.6 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 9.8 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 24.9 | 24.6 | 25.2 |
| vs Similar (34) | 8.9 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 22.8 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 39% | 40% | 38% | 64% | 56% | 72% | 61% | 48% | 75% |
| % under line | 61% | 60% | 62% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 39% | 52% | 25% |
HNK Rijeka| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 26.1 | 25.8 | 26.4 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.3 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 26.1 | 28.4 | 23.8 |
| vs Similar (16) | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 27.2 | 26.0 | 28.5 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 25.5 | 24.6 | 26.5 |
| % over line | 48% | 50% | 45% | 64% | 76% | 52% | 85% | 83% | 86% |
| % under line | 52% | 50% | 55% | 36% | 24% | 48% | 15% | 17% | 14% |
Istra 1961| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 0.77 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.79 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.76 | 0.45 | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+3pp vs league) | |||||
HNK Rijeka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 0.33 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (11) | 0.64 | 0.09 | 0.86 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.50 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Istra 1961| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.57 | 0.56 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (9) | 0.11 | 1.00 | 0.20 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.71 | 0.38 | 0.73 | 0.27 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
HNK Rijeka| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.47 | 1.20 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (11) | 1.18 | 0.27 | 1.57 | 0.14 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.64 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.62 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+29pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 79.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 20/01/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 19/04/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 09/02/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/11/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 18/08/24 | A | 4-0 | |
| 14/04/24 | H | 0-2 |
Istra 1961| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 07/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
HNK Rijeka| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/03/26 | H | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 36 | 86 | 75% | 2.4 | 93 | 28 | +65 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 42% | 9.6 | 44% | 4.4 | 50% | 24.2 | 61% | 66 | 33 | 2 | 30 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 58% |
| 2 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 36 | 68 | 56% | 1.9 | 61 | 36 | +25 | 2.7 | 81% | 44% | 28% | 9.3 | 50% | 4.7 | 57% | 27.1 | 89% | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 58% |
| 3 |  NK Varazdin | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 47 | 46 | +1 | 2.6 | 83% | 47% | 28% | 9.6 | 46% | 5.0 | 74% | 25.4 | 83% | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 4 | HNK Rijeka | 36 | 53 | 39% | 1.5 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 2.4 | 69% | 42% | 28% | 9.8 | 63% | 4.7 | 68% | 26.1 | 86% | 49 | 31 | 7 | 12 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 52% |
| 5 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 36 | 44 | 28% | 1.2 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 2.6 | 89% | 42% | 19% | 8.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 62% | 26.5 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 36 | 43 | 33% | 1.2 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 10.0 | 49% | 4.6 | 72% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 7 |  HNK Gorica | 36 | 41 | 31% | 1.1 | 40 | 48 | -8 | 2.4 | 72% | 44% | 25% | 8.8 | 43% | 4.4 | 51% | 25.0 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 8 |  NK Slaven Belupo | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 46 | 61 | -15 | 3.0 | 86% | 61% | 36% | 7.9 | 23% | 4.4 | 69% | 26.3 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 9 |  NK Osijek | 36 | 35 | 22% | 1.0 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 2.1 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 10.2 | 49% | 5.2 | 71% | 28.3 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 10 |  Vukovar | 36 | 28 | 17% | 0.8 | 37 | 73 | -36 | 3.1 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 9.0 | 40% | 4.3 | 57% | 25.9 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 43% |