The model favours an away win, with a 43% chance for Brežice, 29% for Jesenice and 29% for a draw. The expected total is 2.6 goals, and the most likely total of 2 goals carries a 27% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7% chance, reflecting the balanced nature of the contest. Jesenice, at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.5 conceded, while Brežice’s recent form shows three straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Tabor Sežana, hinting at defensive frailties. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3%), Under 4.5 (88.2%) and Away +2 handicap (88.1%). Each pick is presented with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jesenice win
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Brežice win
42.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jesenice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.27
1.00
2.00
0.73
2.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.86
2.39
1.00
2.23
0.73
2.53
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-29pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.9%
Under 1.5
26.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.4%
Under 2.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.8%
Under 3.5
74.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
0-1
9.7%
1-2
8.9%
0-0
8.9%
0-2
7.9%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
7.1%
2-2
5.1%
Jesenice goals ↓
Brežice goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.9%
9.7%
7.9%
3.8%
1.4%
1
7.4%
14%
8.9%
4.3%
1.5%
2
4.9%
7.1%
5.1%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.9%
2.7%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jesenice goals (down), columns = Brežice goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Jesenice is 0.78 points worse than Brežice in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.38).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Jesenice is 0.54 goals worse than Brežice in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.41).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Jesenice is 0.86 goals worse than Brežice in terms of goals conceded per game (2.27 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jesenice or Draw
57.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Jesenice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jesenice or Brežice
71.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Jesenice + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Brežice
71.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
43%
covers Draw + Brežice
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jesenice over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
Under
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jesenice, so a minus line means Jesenice give that many goals of a start and Brežice receive them. At -1, Jesenice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jesenice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -2
3.7%
Draw -2
8.2%
Brežice +2
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -1
11.9%
Draw -1
16.7%
Brežice +1
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +1
57.3%
Draw +1
21.5%
Brežice -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +2
78.8%
Draw +2
13.1%
Brežice -2
8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jesenice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (28)
0.36
0.86
0.31
0.85
0.40
0.87
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jesenice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.47
0.60
1.27
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (28)
0.50
1.54
0.69
1.38
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Brežice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Brežice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Brežice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Ilirija
Slovan Ljubljana
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Dravinja