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Jesenice vs Dren Vrhnika Prediction & Stats

Date: 26/09/2026
Time: 22:00
Jesenice
Jesenice
Vs
26%
27%
46%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dren Vrhnika
Dren Vrhnika
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Jesenice face Dren Vrhnika in a fixture the model favours for an away win, with a 46% chance of a Dren Vrhnika victory, 27% for a draw and 26% for a Jesenice win. The average goal tally sits at 2.7, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 26% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% probability. Jesenice, playing at home against a stronger opponent, average 1.0 goal scored and 2.23 conceded, while Dren Vrhnika, on the road against a weaker side, average 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (92.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.3%), Away +2 handicap (89.1%) and Under 4.5 (86.2%). Jesenice’s recent form shows a two-game winning run, while Dren Vrhnika return from a defeat.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jesenice win
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika win
46.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-818L03L01L21W23L01L03L11D20W31WA·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08H·KRŠ14/08A·DEK21/08H·BEL29/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.872.271.002.000.732.53
vs Stronger (28)0.862.391.002.230.732.53
vs Similar (2)1.000.501.000.50--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W20W02LH·TRI07/08A·BRE15/08H·DRA22/08A·BIS29/08
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.000.501.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Weaker (2)2.000.502.000.002.001.00
Clean sheet %25% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.7%
Under 2.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
9.3%
0-2
8.2%
0-0
7.9%
2-1
6.8%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
5.3%
Jesenice goals ↓
Dren Vrhnika goals →
01234
07.9%9.3%8.2%4.3%1.7%
16.4%13%9.3%4.9%1.9%
24.3%6.8%5.3%2.8%1.1%
31.6%2.6%2.0%1.1%0.4%
40.5%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jesenice goals (down), columns = Dren Vrhnika goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Jesenice is 0.78 points worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 1.38).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Jesenice is 0.54 goals worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.41).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Jesenice is 0.86 goals worse than Dren Vrhnika in terms of goals conceded per game (2.27 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jesenice or Draw
53.9%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
46%
covers Jesenice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jesenice or Dren Vrhnika
72.5%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
46%
covers Jesenice + Dren Vrhnika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Dren Vrhnika
73.6%
Avg Implied -
26%
27%
46%
covers Draw + Dren Vrhnika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jesenice over/under 0.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
Under
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
Under
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Jesenice, so a minus line means Jesenice give that many goals of a start and Dren Vrhnika receive them. At -1, Jesenice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jesenice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.5%
Dren Vrhnika +2
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -1
10.9%
Draw -1
15.5%
Dren Vrhnika +1
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +1
53.9%
Draw +1
21.9%
Dren Vrhnika -1
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +2
75.8%
Draw +2
14.3%
Dren Vrhnika -2
9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L01L01L10W21W01L02L10W10W00DA·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08H·KRŠ14/08A·DEK21/08H·BEL29/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.800.400.730.400.87
vs Stronger (28)0.360.860.310.850.400.87
vs Similar (2)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L10W02LH·TRI07/08A·BRE15/08H·DRA22/08A·BIS29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.250.750.500.000.001.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.001.000.000.000.002.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L00D11D02L00D01L01L10W31WA·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08H·KRŠ14/08A·DEK21/08H·BEL29/08
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.470.601.270.331.67
vs Stronger (28)0.501.540.691.380.331.67
vs Similar (2)0.000.500.000.50--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dren Vrhnika) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W10W00DH·TRI07/08A·BRE15/08H·DRA22/08A·BIS29/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.750.250.500.501.000.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Weaker (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dren Vrhnika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.3%-------
Under 6.597.9%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.2%-------
Under 5.594.3%-------
Away under 3.5 goals92.6%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.3%-------
Away +2 handicap89.1%-------
Under 4.586.2%-------
Away under 2.5 goals79.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals79.1%-------
Over 1.576.4%-------
Home +2 handicap75.8%-------
Draw or Away73.6%-------
Away +1 handicap73.6%-------
Home or Away72.5%-------
Under 3.571.3%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
JES wins
0
Draws
0
DV wins

Head-to-head

Jesenice vs Dren Vrhnika · H/A from JES
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HJES Vs Beltinci3-1
21/08/26ADekani Vs JES0-2
14/08/26HJES Vs Krško1-1
08/08/26HJES Vs Tabor Sežana0-3
23/05/26HJES Vs Dravinja0-1
15/05/26AKrka Vs JES3-2
10/05/26HJES Vs Rudar2-1
07/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs JES1-0
30/04/26HJES Vs Triglav0-3
26/04/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs JES8-1

Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26ABistrica Vs DV2-0
22/08/26HDV Vs Dravinja2-0
15/08/26ABrežice Vs DV1-2
07/08/26HDV Vs Triglav0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jesenice
Jesenice
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWW0.74
HomeWLLDW0.72
AwayLLLLW0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %18%17%19%
AVG goals3.092.893.31
Over 1.5 %82%83%81%
Over 2.5 %56%67%44%
Over 3.5 %32%28%38%
Scored0.940.940.94
Conceded2.151.942.38
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet18%11%25%
Corners---
Cards---
Dren Vrhnika
Dren Vrhnika
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWL1.50
HomeLW1.50
AwayWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.001.502.50
Over 1.5 %75%50%100%
Over 2.5 %25%0%50%
Over 3.5 %0%0%0%
Scored1.001.001.00
Conceded1.000.501.50
BTTS25%0%50%
Clean Sheet25%50%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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