The model favours an away win, with a 60 % chance for Ilirija, 23 % for a draw and 17 % for Jesenice. The expected total goals hover around 3.0, but the most likely total is 2, with a 24 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.1 % chance. Jesenice, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.31 conceded. Ilirija, on a three-game winning streak, has been solid away, scoring 2-0 against Rudar. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3 %), Under 6.5 (96.9 %), Away +2 handicap (93.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (92.4 %), Under 5.5 (92.1 %), Away over 0.5 goals (86.2 %) and Away under 3.5 goals (86.0 %). Each pick is presented with its exact probability, reflecting the model’s confidence in a low-scoring, Ilirija-dominated encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Jesenice win
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ilirija win
54.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Jesenice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.27
1.00
2.00
0.73
2.53
vs Stronger (28)
0.86
2.39
1.00
2.23
0.73
2.53
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.53
1.40
1.47
1.53
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.57
1.50
1.58
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.3%
Under 1.5
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
58.0%
Under 2.5
42.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
35.6%
Under 3.5
64.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.3%
No
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.2%
1-3
6.2%
0-0
6.0%
2-1
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Jesenice goals ↓
Ilirija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
8.2%
8.8%
5.5%
2.6%
1
4.5%
11%
9.9%
6.2%
2.9%
2
3.1%
5.9%
5.5%
3.5%
1.6%
3
1.2%
2.2%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jesenice goals (down), columns = Ilirija goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Jesenice is 0.30 points worse than Ilirija in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 0.90).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Jesenice is 0.40 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Jesenice is 0.53 goals worse than Ilirija in terms of goals conceded per game (2.27 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Jesenice or Draw
45.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
54%
covers Jesenice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Jesenice or Ilirija
75.6%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
54%
covers Jesenice + Ilirija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ilirija
78.7%
Avg Implied -
21%
24%
54%
covers Draw + Ilirija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Jesenice over/under 0.5
Over
67.5%
Under
32.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5
Over
84.9%
Under
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5
Over
56.4%
Under
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5
Over
29.4%
Under
70.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 3.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Jesenice, so a minus line means Jesenice give that many goals of a start and Ilirija receive them. At -1, Jesenice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Jesenice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -2
2.5%
Draw -2
6.0%
Ilirija +2
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice -1
8.5%
Draw -1
12.8%
Ilirija +1
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +1
45.7%
Draw +1
22.3%
Ilirija -1
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Jesenice)
Jesenice +2
68.0%
Draw +2
16.9%
Ilirija -2
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Jesenice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.40
0.73
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (28)
0.36
0.86
0.31
0.85
0.40
0.87
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.90
0.40
0.80
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.91
0.33
0.83
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.1%
Under 1.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.3%
Under 2.5
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
42.2%
Under
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Jesenice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.47
0.60
1.27
0.33
1.67
vs Stronger (28)
0.50
1.54
0.69
1.38
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ilirija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ilirija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.63
1.00
0.67
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.65
1.17
0.75
0.73
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.7%
Under 0.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.8%
Under 1.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.5%
Under 2.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.2%
Under
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
62.4%
Under
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ilirija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Jesenice and Ilirija have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Jesenice and Ilirija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Jesenice and Ilirija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Jesenice and Ilirija have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Tabor Sežana
Slovan Ljubljana
Bistrica
Triglav
Beltinci
Rudar
Dren Vrhnika
Bilje
Primorje
Krško
Dekani
Krka
Brežice
Dravinja