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Jesenice vs Krško Result & Analysis

Date: 14/08/2026
Time: 15:30
Final 1-1
Jesenice
Jesenice
Vs
37%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Krško
Krško
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated match between Jesenice and Krško in the Slovenia: 2. SNL league is finely balanced, with recent form playing a significant role. Jesenice has struggled, suffering three consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Tabor Sežana, while Krško has been on a two-game winning streak, most recently defeating Primorje 2-1.

The model predicts a home win for Jesenice, with a 38% probability of a home victory, 29% chance of a draw, and 34% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.

Jesenice has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 0, while facing opponents of similar strength. Krško, on the other hand, has been scoring 0.8 goals and conceding 1.2 goals when playing away against similar opponents.

The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.4% probability, and the Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.8% probability. Home win percentage is 38%, draw percentage is 29%, and away win percentage is 34%.

Results analysis

The draw between Jesenice and Krško has extended the hosts' recent run of four draws and a win. The 1-1 final score reflected the most likely outcome predicted by the model, with a 14% probability. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite had a 37% probability of winning. In contrast, the model's call for Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 73.2% probability, while Under 3.5 goals also came to fruition, at 75.1%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jesenice win✗ Miss
37.4%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.89
Edge
+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
1xBet
2.91
Draw✓ Hit
29.3%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.32
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.60
10Bet
3.45
Dafabet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Krško win✗ Miss
33.3%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.12
Edge
-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.17
SBO
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Dafabet
2.16

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-802L02L02L18L03L01L21W23L01L03LH·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.872.370.872.200.872.53
vs Stronger (28)0.752.540.862.360.642.71
vs Similar (2)2.500.001.000.004.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KrškoKrško

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D12L04L11D03L04L12L20W21WH·BIL04/04A·BEL10/04H·BRI18/04A·TRI24/04H·SLO30/04A·RUD07/05H·KRK10/05A·DRA16/05H·GOR23/05H·PRI08/08
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.772.070.801.870.732.27
vs Stronger (15)0.732.530.882.000.573.14
vs Similar (15)0.801.600.711.710.881.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%222%314%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.18-3.0%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.77+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Marathonbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
10Bet
4.00
Betano
3.50
BetVictor
3.13
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.4%
@ 1.66-8.9%
Under 2.5
53.6%
@ 2.05+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.80
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
1xBet
2.14
Marathonbet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
@ 2.44-12.0%
Under 3.5
75.1%
@ 1.42+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.47
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Pinnacle
2.46
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.7%
@ 1.50-7.1%
No
47.3%
@ 2.24+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
10Bet
1.53
William Hil
1.53
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
No
1xBet
2.34
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.29
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.20

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.0%@ 6.38+7.3%
0-0
9.2%@ 11.37+5.5%
1-0
9.1%@ 10.07+4.9%
0-1
8.5%@ 8.79+3.6%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.51+3.8%
1-2
7.8%@ 8.34+2.7%
2-0
6.8%@ 14.92+4.0%
0-2
6.0%@ 11.23+2.2%
Jesenice goals ↓
Krško goals →
01234
09.2%8.5%6.0%2.4%0.7%
19.1%14%7.8%3.2%1.0%
26.8%8.3%5.1%2.1%0.6%
33.0%3.6%2.2%0.9%0.3%
41.0%1.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jesenice goals (down), columns = Krško goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Triglav
2.13
Beltinci
2.00
Primorje
1.70
Tabor Sežana
1.67
Bistrica
1.50
Brežice
1.38
Dren Vrhnika
1.38
Rudar
1.23
Dravinja
1.23
Bilje
1.13
Dekani
1.10
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
0.97
Ilirija
0.90
Krško
0.87
Jesenice
0.60
Jesenice is 0.27 points worse than Krško in terms of average points per game (0.60 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Triglav
2.40
Beltinci
1.83
Primorje
1.73
Bistrica
1.67
Rudar
1.53
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dekani
1.33
Ilirija
1.27
Tabor Sežana
1.23
Slovan Ljubljana
1.07
Krka
1.07
Dravinja
1.07
Bilje
0.90
Jesenice
0.87
Krško
0.80
Jesenice is 0.07 goals better than Krško in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 0.80).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Beltinci
0.83
Triglav
0.93
Tabor Sežana
1.10
Primorje
1.15
Bistrica
1.20
Rudar
1.30
Brežice
1.41
Dren Vrhnika
1.41
Dravinja
1.47
Dekani
1.53
Bilje
1.57
Krka
1.70
Slovan Ljubljana
1.73
Ilirija
1.73
Krško
2.07
Jesenice
2.27
Jesenice is 0.20 goals worse than Krško in terms of goals conceded per game (2.27 vs 2.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D00D14L01L01L10W21W01L02LH·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.900.330.930.470.87
vs Stronger (28)0.320.960.291.000.360.93
vs Similar (2)1.500.001.000.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KrškoKrško

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W01L00D01L01L01L10W20WH·BIL04/04A·BEL10/04H·BRI18/04A·TRI24/04H·SLO30/04A·RUD07/05H·KRK10/05A·DRA16/05H·GOR23/05H·PRI08/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.770.470.670.270.87
vs Stronger (15)0.470.800.620.620.291.00
vs Similar (15)0.270.730.290.710.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JeseniceJesenice

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L02L04L02L00D11D02L00D01LH·NAF04/04A·BIL11/04H·BEL18/04A·BRI26/04H·TRI30/04A·SLO07/05H·RUD10/05A·KRK15/05H·DRA23/05H·TAB08/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.471.470.531.270.401.67
vs Stronger (28)0.431.570.571.360.291.79
vs Similar (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Krško) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KrškoKrško

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L02L03L11D02L03L11D10W01LH·BIL04/04A·BEL10/04H·BRI18/04A·TRI24/04H·SLO30/04A·RUD07/05H·KRK10/05A·DRA16/05H·GOR23/05H·PRI08/08
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.401.300.331.200.471.40
vs Stronger (15)0.271.730.251.380.292.14
vs Similar (15)0.530.870.431.000.620.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Jesenice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jesenice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jesenice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Krško over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.1%1.42
Pinnacle
1.45
10Bet
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
+12.0%✓ Hit
Over 1.573.2%1.18
10Bet
1.22
Betano
1.21
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
-3.0%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (19)
€2m
TS (17)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DRA (16)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
JES (13)
€1m
SL (13)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Jesenice and Krško have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
TS (4)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DRA (4)
€0m
JES (5)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
SL (2)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Jesenice and Krško have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TS (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
SL (3)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
DRA (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Jesenice and Krško have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TRI (7)
€1m
DRA (10)
€1m
TS (8)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
SL (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
JES (6)
€0m
Jesenice and Krško have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
JES wins
0
Draws
0
KRŠ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jesenice vs Krško · H/A from JES
DateH/AGameScore
01/03/26HJES Vs Krško1-0
16/08/25AKrško Vs JES0-4

JeseniceJesenice

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HJES Vs Tabor Sežana0-3
23/05/26HJES Vs Dravinja0-1
15/05/26AKrka Vs JES3-2
10/05/26HJES Vs Rudar2-1
07/05/26ASlovan Ljubljana Vs JES1-0
30/04/26HJES Vs Triglav0-3
26/04/26ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs JES8-1
18/04/26HJES Vs Beltinci0-2
11/04/26ABilje Vs JES2-0
04/04/26HJES Vs Nafta0-2

KrškoKrško

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HKRŠ Vs Primorje2-1
23/05/26HKRŠ Vs Gorica2-0
16/05/26ADravinja Vs KRŠ2-1
10/05/26HKRŠ Vs Krka0-4
07/05/26ARudar Vs KRŠ3-0
30/04/26HKRŠ Vs Slovan Ljubljana1-1
24/04/26ATriglav Vs KRŠ4-0
18/04/26HKRŠ Vs Brinje-Grosuplje1-2
10/04/26ABeltinci Vs KRŠ1-1
04/04/26HKRŠ Vs Bilje1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jesenice
Jesenice
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.58
HomeLLWLL0.56
AwayDLLLL0.60
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%12%13%
AVG goals3.132.883.40
Over 1.5 %81%81%80%
Over 2.5 %58%69%47%
Over 3.5 %32%25%40%
Scored0.840.810.87
Conceded2.292.062.53
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet16%12%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Krško
Krško
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW0.82
HomeLDLWW1.04
AwayLDLLL0.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%27%17%
AVG goals2.902.813.00
Over 1.5 %84%88%79%
Over 2.5 %60%58%62%
Over 3.5 %32%35%29%
Scored0.901.000.79
Conceded2.001.812.21
BTTS50%46%54%
Clean Sheet10%15%4%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Tabor SežanaTabor Sežana412
100%
3.0
110+11
2.8
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.80.0
-
2IlirijaIlirija49
75%
2.2
102+8
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1002.50.5
-
3Slovan LjubljanaSlovan Ljubljana49
75%
2.2
87+1
3.8
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.8
-
4JeseniceJesenice47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.2
-
5BistricaBistrica47
50%
1.8
67-1
3.2
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
6TriglavTriglav36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.7
-
7BeltinciBeltinci46
50%
1.5
86+2
3.5
100%
75%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.01.5
-
8RudarRudar46
50%
1.5
75+2
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.81.2
-
9Dren VrhnikaDren Vrhnika46
50%
1.5
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
10BiljeBilje46
50%
1.5
710-3
4.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.82.5
-
11PrimorjePrimorje46
50%
1.5
58-3
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
12KrškoKrško45
25%
1.2
38-5
2.8
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
13DekaniDekani44
25%
1.0
33+0
1.5
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.80.8
-
14KrkaKrka41
0%
0.2
49-5
3.2
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.02.2
-
15BrežiceBrežice30
0%
0.0
25-3
2.3
67%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
16DravinjaDravinja40
0%
0.0
210-8
3.0
75%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.52.5
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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