This highly anticipated match between Jesenice and Krško in the Slovenia: 2. SNL league is finely balanced, with recent form playing a significant role. Jesenice has struggled, suffering three consecutive defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Tabor Sežana, while Krško has been on a two-game winning streak, most recently defeating Primorje 2-1.
The model predicts a home win for Jesenice, with a 38% probability of a home victory, 29% chance of a draw, and 34% probability of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%.
Jesenice has been struggling at home, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding 0, while facing opponents of similar strength. Krško, on the other hand, has been scoring 0.8 goals and conceding 1.2 goals when playing away against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a 74.4% probability, and the Under 3.5 goals, with a 73.8% probability. Home win percentage is 38%, draw percentage is 29%, and away win percentage is 34%.
The draw between Jesenice and Krško has extended the hosts' recent run of four draws and a win. The 1-1 final score reflected the most likely outcome predicted by the model, with a 14% probability. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, as the pre-match favourite had a 37% probability of winning. In contrast, the model's call for Over 1.5 goals hit, with a 73.2% probability, while Under 3.5 goals also came to fruition, at 75.1%.
Jesenice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 2.37 | 0.87 | 2.20 | 0.87 | 2.53 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.75 | 2.54 | 0.86 | 2.36 | 0.64 | 2.71 |
| vs Similar (2) | 2.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Krško| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 2.07 | 0.80 | 1.87 | 0.73 | 2.27 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.73 | 2.53 | 0.88 | 2.00 | 0.57 | 3.14 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 1.60 | 0.71 | 1.71 | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-19pp vs league) | |||||
| Krško goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.2% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14% | 7.8% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 6.8% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Jesenice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.32 | 0.96 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 0.93 |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Krško| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.27 | 0.87 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.29 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.29 | 0.71 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Jesenice| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.47 | 0.53 | 1.27 | 0.40 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.43 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 1.36 | 0.29 | 1.79 |
| vs Similar (2) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Krško| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 1.30 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 0.47 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.27 | 1.73 | 0.25 | 1.38 | 0.29 | 2.14 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.53 | 0.87 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 75.1% | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.42 | +12.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 73.2% | 1.18 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.13 | -3.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/08/25 | A | 0-4 |
Jesenice| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 8-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-2 |
Krško| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/05/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 30/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 11 | 0 | +11 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.8 | 0.0 | - |
| 2 | Ilirija | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Slovan Ljubljana | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 4 | Jesenice | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bistrica | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 6 | Triglav | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 2.3 | 33% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | - |
| 7 | Beltinci | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 8 | Rudar | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 9 | Dren Vrhnika | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Bilje | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | - |
| 11 | Primorje | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 | Krško | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 13 | Dekani | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 1.5 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 14 | Krka | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 15 | Brežice | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 2.3 | 67% | 67% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Dravinja | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | - |