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Jonava vs Nevėžis Result & Analysis

Date: 04/10/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-2
Jonava
Jonava
Vs
33%
31%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Jonava win✗ Miss
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

JonavaJonava

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D21W11D14L21W21W02L20W10W30WA·BFA26/07H·BE102/08H·KAU09/08H·PAN13/08A·BAB17/08A·HEG23/08H·NEP30/08A·PAN14/09H·TAU20/09A·FA 26/09
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.930.861.291.190.62
vs Stronger (10)1.201.501.002.251.331.00
vs Similar (9)0.890.560.600.601.250.50
vs Weaker (11)1.000.731.001.201.000.33
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L01L13L13L21W02L00D11D01L05LA·HEG21/07H·PAN25/07A·FA 02/08H·MIN08/08A·ŽAL16/08H·TRA22/08H·BE129/08H·BAB12/09A·NEP19/09H·TAU26/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.801.061.881.311.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)1.201.600.601.201.802.00
vs Weaker (20)1.151.901.252.171.001.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
39.4%
Under 2.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.3%
Under 3.5
80.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
10.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
6.3%
Jonava goals ↓
Nevėžis goals →
01234
012%11%7.1%2.8%0.8%
110%15%7.8%3.0%0.9%
26.3%7.3%4.2%1.6%0.5%
32.3%2.7%1.6%0.6%0.2%
40.6%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Jonava goals (down), columns = Nevėžis goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.63
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.23
Tauras
2.07
Babrungas
1.93
BFA
1.83
Atmosfera
1.60
Jonava
1.40
Žalgiris II
1.40
Minija
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.03
Be1 NFA
1.00
Ekranas
0.97
FA Šiauliai II
0.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
0.90
Nevėžis
0.87
Panevėžys II
0.70
Sveikata
0.50
Jonava is 0.53 points better than Nevėžis in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.87).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.90
Neptūną Klaipėda
2.27
Babrungas
2.13
Tauras
1.87
Atmosfera
1.73
Žalgiris II
1.67
BFA
1.57
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.43
Ekranas
1.23
Be1 NFA
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.17
Nevėžis
1.07
Sveikata
1.00
Panevėžys II
1.00
Minija
0.90
Jonava
0.87
Jonava is 0.20 goals worse than Nevėžis in terms of goals scored per game (0.87 vs 1.07).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
0.73
Tauras
0.73
Jonava
0.83
Neptūną Klaipėda
0.90
Atmosfera
1.13
BFA
1.20
Babrungas
1.43
Minija
1.53
Žalgiris II
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.70
Hegelmann II
1.70
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.90
Ekranas
1.93
Nevėžis
1.93
FA Šiauliai II
2.28
Panevėžys II
2.70
Sveikata
3.50
Jonava is 1.10 goals better than Nevėžis in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.93).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W03L21W11D00D00D10W10WA·BFA26/07H·BE102/08H·KAU09/08H·PAN13/08A·BAB17/08A·HEG23/08H·NEP30/08A·PAN14/09H·TAU20/09A·FA 26/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.400.290.500.500.31
vs Stronger (10)0.400.900.251.500.500.50
vs Similar (9)0.560.110.400.000.750.25
vs Weaker (11)0.270.180.200.200.330.17
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L02L11D00D00D00D01L00D03LA·HEG21/07H·PAN25/07A·FA 02/08H·MIN08/08A·ŽAL16/08H·TRA22/08H·BE129/08H·BAB12/09A·NEP19/09H·TAU26/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.670.590.820.310.46
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.300.500.000.600.600.40
vs Weaker (20)0.550.750.830.920.120.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

JonavaJonava

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D01L11D00D10W02L20W00D20WA·BFA26/07H·BE102/08H·KAU09/08H·PAN13/08A·BAB17/08A·HEG23/08H·NEP30/08A·PAN14/09H·TAU20/09A·FA 26/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.530.570.790.690.31
vs Stronger (10)0.800.600.750.750.830.50
vs Similar (9)0.330.440.200.600.500.25
vs Weaker (11)0.730.550.801.000.670.17
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Nevėžis) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NevėžisNevėžis

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D02L21W02L00D10W01L02LA·HEG21/07H·PAN25/07A·FA 02/08H·MIN08/08A·ŽAL16/08H·TRA22/08H·BE129/08H·BAB12/09A·NEP19/09H·TAU26/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.701.130.471.061.001.23
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (10)0.901.100.600.601.201.60
vs Weaker (20)0.601.150.421.250.881.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Jonava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Jonava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jonava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nevėžis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
JON wins
1
Draws
2
NEV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Jonava vs Nevėžis · H/A from JON
DateH/AGameScore
30/05/25ANevėžis Vs JON1-0
04/11/23HJON Vs Nevėžis0-0
23/06/23ANevėžis Vs JON5-0

JonavaJonava

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs JON0-3
20/09/25HJON Vs Tauras1-0
14/09/25APanevėžys II Vs JON0-2
30/08/25HJON Vs Neptūną Klaipėda0-2
23/08/25AHegelmann II Vs JON1-2
17/08/25ABabrungas Vs JON1-2
13/08/25HJON Vs Panevėžys1-4
09/08/25HJON Vs Kauno Žalgiris II1-1
02/08/25HJON Vs Be1 NFA2-1
26/07/25ABFA Vs JON0-0

NevėžisNevėžis

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/09/25HNEV Vs Tauras0-5
19/09/25ANeptūną Klaipėda Vs NEV1-0
12/09/25HNEV Vs Babrungas1-1
29/08/25HNEV Vs Be1 NFA0-0
22/08/25HNEV Vs TransINVEST Vilnius0-2
16/08/25AŽalgiris II Vs NEV1-2
08/08/25HNEV Vs Minija1-3
02/08/25AFA Šiauliai II Vs NEV3-1
25/07/25HNEV Vs Panevėžys II0-1
21/07/25AHegelmann II Vs NEV1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Jonava
Jonava
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWW1.10
HomeWDLLW0.87
AwayDWWWW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%22%37%
AVG goals2.742.702.78
Over 1.5 %72%78%67%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %30%26%33%
Scored1.080.781.33
Conceded1.661.911.44
BTTS44%48%41%
Clean Sheet26%17%33%
Corners---
Cards---
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
Lithuania: 1 Lyga
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.22
HomeLLDDL1.22
AwayDLLWL1.22
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals2.863.042.65
Over 1.5 %72%74%70%
Over 2.5 %58%56%61%
Over 3.5 %42%48%35%
Scored1.301.301.30
Conceded1.561.741.35
BTTS52%48%57%
Clean Sheet26%26%26%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1TransINVEST VilniusTransINVEST Vilnius3079
87%
2.6
8722+65
3.6
90%
77%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.90.7
-
2Neptūną KlaipėdaNeptūną Klaipėda3067
70%
2.2
6827+41
3.2
80%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.30.9
-
3TaurasTauras3062
60%
2.1
5622+34
2.6
73%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.7
-
4BabrungasBabrungas3058
57%
1.9
6443+21
3.6
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.11.4
-
5BFABFA3055
53%
1.8
4736+11
2.8
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
6AtmosferaAtmosfera3048
47%
1.6
5234+18
2.9
70%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.1
-
7Žalgiris IIŽalgiris II3042
37%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.71.6
-
8JonavaJonava3042
37%
1.4
2625+1
1.7
57%
23%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.90.8
-
9MinijaMinija3036
37%
1.2
2746-19
2.4
67%
47%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.5
-
10Hegelmann IIHegelmann II3031
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
11Be1 NFABe1 NFA3030
27%
1.0
3551-16
2.9
80%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12FA Šiauliai IIFA Šiauliai II3230
28%
0.9
4873-25
3.8
91%
78%
59%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.3
-
13EkranasEkranas3029
30%
1.0
3758-21
3.2
83%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.9
-
14Kauno Žalgiris IIKauno Žalgiris II3027
27%
0.9
4357-14
3.3
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.9
-
15NevėžisNevėžis3026
23%
0.9
3258-26
3.0
73%
57%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
16Panevėžys IIPanevėžys II3021
20%
0.7
3081-51
3.7
90%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.7
-
17SveikataSveikata21
0%
0.5
27-5
4.5
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.5
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Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →

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