Pythia gives K. Lierse S.K. a 30% win probability against Lokeren-Temse in the Belgium: Challenger Pro League on 2026-04-17, with 29% for the draw and 41% for Lokeren-Temse. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (27%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (94%), Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Over 2.5 cards (84%), Over 23.5 fouls (77%).
Results analysis
K. Lierse S.K. finished 1-1 against Lokeren-Temse (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 30% home win, 29% draw and 41% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (74%), Over 1.5 (74%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. win✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse win✗ Miss
40.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
K. Lierse S.K.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.29
1.43
1.00
1.19
vs Stronger (8)
1.75
2.12
2.00
2.25
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (18)
1.00
1.11
1.25
1.25
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokeren-Temse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokeren-Temse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.40
1.75
1.56
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.67
1.67
2.00
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.44
1.90
1.50
1.50
1.38
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
1.00
1.33
1.33
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.7%
Under 1.5
26.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.1%
Under 2.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.5%
Under 3.5
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.8%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.3%
K. Lierse S.K. goals ↓
Lokeren-Temse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
9.5%
7.5%
3.5%
1.2%
1
7.8%
14%
8.8%
4.1%
1.4%
2
5.3%
7.3%
5.1%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.1%
2.9%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = K. Lierse S.K. goals (down), columns = Lokeren-Temse goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SK Beveren
2.75
Kortrijk
2.06
Beerschot VA
2.00
Liège
1.66
Lommel United
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
RWDM
1.12
Francs Borains
1.09
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Club Brugge II
0.66
Olympic Charleroi
0.50
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.12 points worse than Lokeren-Temse in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.31).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SK Beveren
2.31
Lommel United
1.84
Kortrijk
1.81
Beerschot VA
1.62
RWDM
1.56
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Liège
1.38
Patro Eisden
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Olympic Charleroi
0.81
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.41 goals worse than Lokeren-Temse in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Beveren
0.72
Beerschot VA
0.97
Kortrijk
1.06
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Lommel United
1.44
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RWDM
1.69
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Olympic Charleroi
2.12
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.09 goals better than Lokeren-Temse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.41).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
SK Beveren
56%
Lommel United
55%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Kortrijk
53%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
Olympic Charleroi
48%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
RWDM
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
K. Lierse S.K. is 6.8 percentage points worse than Lokeren-Temse in terms of average possession (47% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
K. Lierse S.K.
For 3.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lokeren-Temse
For 7.4 · Against 4.9 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.6 · Against 15.6 · Total 30.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
K. Lierse S.K.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.9
9.3
4.8
4.5
5.2
27.5
27.0
28.0
vs Stronger (14)
9.2
9.3
9.0
5.7
5.9
5.4
28.6
28.4
29.0
vs Similar (31)
9.1
8.9
9.2
4.7
4.1
5.1
27.2
27.5
27.1
vs Weaker (5)
9.0
5.0
11.0
3.2
0.5
5.0
24.0
9.0
31.5
% over line
48%
38%
57%
66%
54%
77%
83%
76%
90%
% under line
52%
62%
43%
34%
46%
23%
17%
24%
10%
This opponent (Lokeren-Temse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokeren-Temse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.2
11.8
4.1
4.6
3.5
27.7
27.9
27.4
vs Stronger (9)
10.0
9.8
10.5
3.4
3.7
3.0
28.0
28.4
27.0
vs Similar (33)
11.0
10.5
11.7
3.9
4.4
3.4
27.9
26.9
29.2
vs Weaker (8)
11.4
9.3
12.6
5.4
7.7
4.0
26.8
31.3
24.0
% over line
58%
57%
59%
56%
58%
54%
84%
81%
88%
% under line
42%
43%
41%
44%
42%
46%
16%
19%
12%
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.6
Kortrijk
10.2
KRC Genk II
10.2
Beerschot VA
10.2
SK Beveren
9.9
RSC Anderlecht II
9.8
Francs Borains
9.7
RWDM
9.7
Olympic Charleroi
9.7
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
Lommel United
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Patro Eisden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
Liège
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
SK Beveren
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Kortrijk
4.5
RWDM
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
Olympic Charleroi
4.0
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.3
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
25.2
RWDM
24.8
Lommel United
24.8
Olympic Charleroi
24.4
SK Beveren
24.0
Beerschot VA
23.7
Kortrijk
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.3%
Under 21.5
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
K. Lierse S.K.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.50
0.79
0.43
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.39
0.88
0.25
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokeren-Temse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokeren-Temse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.56
0.81
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.78
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.33
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
K. Lierse S.K.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.38
0.62
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
1.00
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.72
0.38
1.00
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokeren-Temse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokeren-Temse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.73
1.19
0.75
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (6)
1.33
0.83
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.89
0.67
1.20
0.60
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokeren-Temse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →