This match between K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden in the Belgium: Challenger Pro League appears finely balanced, with the home side coming off a defeat and the away side having just secured a win. K. Lierse S.K. have a 31% chance of winning at home, while Patro Eisden have a 39% chance of taking the three points. The model's selection is an away win, with a 39% probability.
The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.3% probability. K. Lierse S.K. have scored an average of 2 goals and conceded 2.25 when facing stronger opponents at home, while Patro Eisden have scored 1 goal and conceded 0.67 when facing weaker opponents away.
The model suggests several selections, including Over 21.5 fouls (89.3%), Under 3.5 cards (77.6%), Over 3.5 cards (73%), Draw or Away (72.8%), Home or Away (70.8%), and Over 1.5 (70.8%). The home side has a 31% chance of winning, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 39% chance of an away win.
Results analysis
The upset was stark: the pre-match favourite, Patro Eisden, fell short as K. Lierse S.K. secured a 2-1 home win, extending their recent win streak. The model had tipped an away victory with a 39 % probability, but this call was wrong. The final score matched the model’s most likely 2-1 outcome, yet the outcome was home. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.7 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7 %), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.4 %), Under 5.5 (95.9 %), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5 %). The match delivered a surprising home triumph amid a flurry of accurate low-goal predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. win✓ Hit
30.8%
Avg Implied 29.9% · @ 3.05
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.20
BetVictor
3.10
Bet365
3.10
Betano
3.10
Superbet
3.10
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied 28.5% · @ 3.19
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.25
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Patro Eisden win✗ Miss
39.2%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.19
Edge
-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.28
Unibet
2.23
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.22
Betfair
2.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
K. Lierse S.K.
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.37
1.14
1.36
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (3)
2.67
3.33
4.00
4.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.18
1.09
1.27
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Patro Eisden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Patro Eisden
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.43
1.47
1.33
1.40
1.53
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
5.00
-
-
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (24)
1.50
1.42
1.25
1.50
1.75
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
0.80
2.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.9%
@ 1.29-1.0%
Under 1.5
29.1%
@ 3.28+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
Superbet
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
@ 1.95-4.2%
Under 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.78+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.05
SBO
2.02
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.93
Under
Unibet
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
@ 3.33-5.2%
Under 3.5
77.5%
@ 1.28+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.40
Superbet
3.30
1xBet
3.28
Under
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.73-3.2%
No
49.7%
@ 1.99+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.75
BetVictor
1.75
Superbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
No
Betfair
2.05
Unibet
2.04
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.98
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%@ 5.70+6.6%
0-1
10.3%@ 7.00+4.1%
0-0
10.2%@ 8.85+5.3%
1-0
8.7%@ 8.64+3.7%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.04+3.0%
0-2
7.5%@ 9.72+3.0%
2-1 ✓
7.3%@ 9.78+2.8%
2-0
5.6%@ 13.99+2.5%
K. Lierse S.K. goals ↓
Patro Eisden goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
10%
7.5%
3.2%
1.0%
1
8.7%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.2%
2
5.6%
7.3%
4.7%
2.0%
0.7%
3
2.1%
2.7%
1.8%
0.8%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = K. Lierse S.K. goals (down), columns = Patro Eisden goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Beerschot VA
2.00
Dender
1.71
Liège
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
Francs Borains
1.09
Sporting Hasselt
0.98
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Excelsior Virton
0.91
Club Brugge II
0.66
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.41 points worse than Patro Eisden in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.59).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dender
1.76
Beerschot VA
1.62
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Patro Eisden
1.38
Liège
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KRC Genk II
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Sporting Hasselt
1.00
Excelsior Virton
0.94
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.28 goals worse than Patro Eisden in terms of goals scored per game (1.09 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Beerschot VA
0.97
AS Eupen
1.12
Dender
1.13
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
Club Brugge II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Sporting Hasselt
1.99
Excelsior Virton
2.13
K. Lierse S.K. is 0.06 goals worse than Patro Eisden in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
K. Lierse S.K. is 9.0 percentage points better than Patro Eisden in terms of average possession (47% vs 38%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
K. Lierse S.K.
For 3.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.5 · Against 12.4 · Total 27.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Patro Eisden
For 4.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.5 · Against 12.1 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
K. Lierse S.K.
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.3
9.3
4.1
3.9
4.3
27.1
26.1
28.1
vs Stronger (4)
10.7
11.0
10.0
3.5
5.0
2.0
25.0
25.5
24.0
vs Similar (40)
9.2
9.3
9.1
4.4
4.1
4.7
27.6
27.2
27.9
vs Weaker (6)
9.0
5.0
11.0
2.7
0.5
3.8
24.0
9.0
31.5
% over line
50%
42%
58%
58%
48%
67%
82%
74%
89%
% under line
50%
58%
42%
42%
52%
33%
18%
26%
11%
This opponent (Patro Eisden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Patro Eisden
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.8
8.6
4.2
4.5
3.8
29.1
28.4
29.8
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
9.0
9.3
8.7
4.2
4.7
3.7
29.2
28.8
29.7
vs Weaker (6)
6.8
5.0
8.0
5.0
3.7
6.3
28.4
25.0
30.7
% over line
24%
21%
28%
60%
58%
62%
86%
84%
89%
% under line
76%
79%
72%
40%
42%
38%
14%
16%
11%
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.5
Beerschot VA
10.3
KRC Genk II
10.2
Francs Borains
9.7
RSC Anderlecht II
9.7
Dender
9.6
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
KAA Gent II
9.5
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Excelsior Virton
9.0
Patro Eisden
8.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
Liège
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
KAA Gent II
4.0
KRC Genk II
3.7
Dender
3.4
Excelsior Virton
2.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.2
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.2
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.3
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
24.8
Beerschot VA
24.3
Dender
21.2
Excelsior Virton
13.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
38.2%
@ 2.06-6.8%
Under 9.5
61.8%
@ 1.69+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.21
Superbet
1.92
Unibet
1.90
Under
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.77
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
72.6%
Under 3.5
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
88.9%
Under 21.5
11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
K. Lierse S.K. or Draw✓ Hit
56.3%
Avg Implied 58.5% · @ 1.57
Edge
-2.2%
31%
30%
39%
covers K. Lierse S.K. + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
Superbet
1.58
William Hil
1.57
BetVictor
1.57
Bet365
1.57
K. Lierse S.K. or Patro Eisden✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-0.8%
31%
30%
39%
covers K. Lierse S.K. + Patro Eisden
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Draw or Patro Eisden✗ Miss
72.8%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.32
Edge
+3.0%
31%
30%
39%
covers Draw + Patro Eisden
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
65.6%
@ 1.35-2.8%
Under
34.4%
@ 2.92+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
2.88
1xBet
2.88
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
28.9%
@ 2.75-4.7%
Under
71.1%
@ 1.39+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.77
Superbet
2.77
1xBet
2.76
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 6.70-4.5%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.07+4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.75
Marathonbet
6.75
Superbet
6.60
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.12-4.0%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
Patro Eisden over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.7%
@ 1.24+1.0%
Under
24.3%
@ 3.64-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
1xBet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
BetVictor
3.60
Patro Eisden over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.3%
@ 2.19-1.0%
Under
58.7%
@ 1.60+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.25
BetVictor
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Under
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Betano
1.62
BetVictor
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
Patro Eisden over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.0%
@ 4.83-2.1%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.14+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Patro Eisden over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 10.28-3.6%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Betano
9.00
Under
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to K. Lierse S.K., so a minus line means K. Lierse S.K. give that many goals of a start and Patro Eisden receive them. At -1, K. Lierse S.K. must win by two or more to land; a one-goal K. Lierse S.K. win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (K. Lierse S.K.)Actual: Patro Eisden
K. Lierse S.K. -2
3.2%
@ 17.00-2.3%
Draw -2
7.7%
@ 9.50-2.1%
Patro Eisden +2
89.1%
@ 1.10+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Away
Bet365
1.10
Handicap -1 (K. Lierse S.K.)Actual: Draw
K. Lierse S.K. -1
10.9%
@ 6.25-3.3%
Draw -1
16.3%
@ 4.63-2.8%
Patro Eisden +1
72.8%
@ 1.33+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
5.80
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Unibet
4.30
Away
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
Handicap +1 (K. Lierse S.K.)Actual: K. Lierse S.K.
K. Lierse S.K. +1
56.3%
@ 1.57-0.1%
Draw +1
22.0%
@ 3.81-1.2%
Patro Eisden -1
21.6%
@ 4.34+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.74
Away
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
4.10
Handicap +2 (K. Lierse S.K.)Actual: K. Lierse S.K.
K. Lierse S.K. +2
78.4%
@ 1.16+1.7%
Draw +2
13.4%
@ 6.36-0.5%
Patro Eisden -2
8.2%
@ 9.53-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Unibet
6.00
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
9.10
Unibet
9.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
K. Lierse S.K.
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.57
0.43
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.41
0.55
0.36
0.55
0.45
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.00
0.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Patro Eisden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Patro Eisden
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.67
0.60
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.54
0.33
0.50
0.83
0.58
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.20
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
66.0%
@ 1.38-0.8%
Under 0.5
34.0%
@ 2.78+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
BetVictor
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Under
William Hil
3.00
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.80
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
30.4%
@ 2.76-3.0%
Under 1.5
69.6%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Superbet
2.82
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Under
Unibet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 7.09-2.6%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Marathonbet
6.85
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 2.23+0.1%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.57-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.12
Under
Unibet
1.61
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
Superbet
1.56
Betano
1.55
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.4%
@ 7.60-2.8%
Under
90.6%
@ 1.05+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.3%
@ 11.25-6.9%
Under
98.7%
@ 1.01+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
Patro Eisden over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
44.6%
@ 1.95-2.6%
Under
55.4%
@ 1.74+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Superbet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.92
1xBet
1.91
Under
Unibet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Patro Eisden over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.6%
@ 6.05-3.7%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Patro Eisden over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 10.50-6.5%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.02+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
K. Lierse S.K.
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.57
0.93
0.38
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.77
0.55
0.91
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Patro Eisden) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Patro Eisden
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
1.07
0.93
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
-
-
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.88
0.92
1.00
0.92
0.75
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.60
1.67
0.67
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (K. Lierse S.K.) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.9%
Under 0.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
40.4%
Under 1.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
47.3%
Under
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
K. Lierse S.K. over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Patro Eisden over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.3%
Under
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Patro Eisden over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Patro Eisden over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
Under
95.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
Betfair
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
BetVictor
1.06
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.6%
1.05
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.07
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.4%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
89.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.4%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.0%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.5%
1.26
Superbet
1.33
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.14
-
-
+9.1%
-
Over 23.5 fouls
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.4%
1.16
Bet365
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.5%
1.28
Unibet
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
75.7%
1.24
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
+1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.3%
1.43
Superbet
1.51
Unibet
1.48
1xBet
1.31
-
-
+9.0%
-
Draw or Away
72.8%
1.32
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
72.8%
1.33
Unibet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
-
-
+6.2%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.1%
1.39
Betano
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.39
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
70.9%
1.29
Betano
1.32
BetVictor
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
70.8%
1.28
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
-0.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
K. Lierse S.K. · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alexandre Stanic36%
Mauro Lenaerts33%
Daan De Peuter29%
Jenthe Mertens24%
Emmanuel Matuta17%
Pietro Perdichizzi14%
Bryan Adinany14%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne14%
Samih El Touile8%
Dirk Asare7%
Victor Daguin5%
Jarno De Smet0%
Mansour Sy0%
Wout De Buyser0%
Pieter De Schrijver0%
Kiany Vroman0%
Toni Lun Bončina0%
Noam Mayoka-Tika0%
Dylan Demuynck0%
Jano Willems0%
Sam Vanderhallen0%
Yann Gboua0%
Thiebe Van Elsuwege0%
Elton Yeboah0%
Yassin Hidraoui0%
Hugo Masaki0%
Tiago Vermeulen0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Vincent De Vos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Thiebe Van Elsuwege40%
Jenthe Mertens35%
Daan De Peuter29%
Victor Daguin27%
Wout De Buyser25%
Yassin Hidraoui25%
Hugo Masaki25%
Noam Mayoka-Tika23%
Dirk Asare20%
Alexandre Stanic18%
Samih El Touile17%
Bo De Kerf17%
Mauro Lenaerts17%
Pietro Perdichizzi14%
Bryan Adinany14%
Elton Yeboah14%
Jano Willems12%
Kiany Vroman11%
Sam Vanderhallen8%
Vincent De Vos7%
Emmanuel Matuta6%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne5%
Jarno De Smet0%
Mansour Sy0%
Pieter De Schrijver0%
Toni Lun Bončina0%
Dylan Demuynck0%
Yann Gboua0%
Tiago Vermeulen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bryan Adinany21%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne14%
Dirk Asare13%
Jenthe Mertens12%
Victor Daguin9%
Emmanuel Matuta6%
Noam Mayoka-Tika5%
Jarno De Smet0%
Pietro Perdichizzi0%
Mansour Sy0%
Wout De Buyser0%
Pieter De Schrijver0%
Kiany Vroman0%
Toni Lun Bončina0%
Alexandre Stanic0%
Dylan Demuynck0%
Jano Willems0%
Sam Vanderhallen0%
Samih El Touile0%
Yann Gboua0%
Thiebe Van Elsuwege0%
Elton Yeboah0%
Yassin Hidraoui0%
Hugo Masaki0%
Tiago Vermeulen0%
Daan De Peuter0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Mauro Lenaerts0%
Vincent De Vos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexandre Stanic36%
Bryan Adinany36%
Samih El Touile17%
Mauro Lenaerts17%
Toni Lun Bončina11%
Victor Daguin9%
Pietro Perdichizzi7%
Dirk Asare7%
Emmanuel Matuta6%
Cedric Jan Van Meirvenne5%
Jarno De Smet0%
Jenthe Mertens0%
Mansour Sy0%
Wout De Buyser0%
Pieter De Schrijver0%
Kiany Vroman0%
Noam Mayoka-Tika0%
Dylan Demuynck0%
Jano Willems0%
Sam Vanderhallen0%
Yann Gboua0%
Thiebe Van Elsuwege0%
Elton Yeboah0%
Yassin Hidraoui0%
Hugo Masaki0%
Tiago Vermeulen0%
Daan De Peuter0%
Bo De Kerf0%
Vincent De Vos0%
Patro Eisden · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Léandro Rousseau41%
Radja Nainggolan21%
Raymond Asante20%
Japhet Muanza15%
Nicolas Orye14%
Kéres Masangu9%
Vancy Mabanza8%
Jordan Renson7%
Amir Rais6%
Denis Prychynenko5%
Kjetil Borry4%
Stef Peeters4%
Milan Robberechts4%
Ridwane M'Barki0%
Julien Devriendt0%
Jimmy Kaparos0%
Aloïs Penin0%
Justin Munezero0%
Muhammad Carrim0%
Raphaël Sarfo0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Ilyas Lefrancq0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denis Prychynenko42%
Vancy Mabanza42%
Muhammad Carrim33%
Milan Robberechts33%
Kéres Masangu32%
Japhet Muanza30%
Stef Peeters30%
Kjetil Borry29%
Justin Munezero25%
Radja Nainggolan21%
Aloïs Penin20%
Raymond Asante20%
Arnaud Dony16%
Léandro Rousseau15%
Jordan Renson14%
Ilyas Lefrancq11%
Amir Rais11%
Ridwane M'Barki10%
Nicolas Orye9%
Julien Devriendt8%
Jimmy Kaparos0%
Raphaël Sarfo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Radja Nainggolan36%
Stef Peeters26%
Milan Robberechts11%
Ilyas Lefrancq11%
Ridwane M'Barki10%
Japhet Muanza5%
Nicolas Orye5%
Kjetil Borry4%
Denis Prychynenko0%
Jordan Renson0%
Julien Devriendt0%
Jimmy Kaparos0%
Kéres Masangu0%
Aloïs Penin0%
Justin Munezero0%
Muhammad Carrim0%
Raphaël Sarfo0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Léandro Rousseau0%
Raymond Asante0%
Amir Rais0%
Vancy Mabanza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Léandro Rousseau37%
Jimmy Kaparos33%
Raymond Asante30%
Radja Nainggolan29%
Kéres Masangu18%
Vancy Mabanza17%
Nicolas Orye9%
Stef Peeters7%
Milan Robberechts7%
Amir Rais6%
Japhet Muanza5%
Jordan Renson4%
Kjetil Borry0%
Denis Prychynenko0%
Ridwane M'Barki0%
Julien Devriendt0%
Aloïs Penin0%
Justin Munezero0%
Muhammad Carrim0%
Raphaël Sarfo0%
Arnaud Dony0%
Ilyas Lefrancq0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (26)
€12m
BV (26)
€9m
DEN (19)
€8m
RAI (19)
€8m
KGI (18)
€7m
PE (25)
€7m
KGI (19)
€6m
KLS (21)
€5m
LOK (16)
€5m
FB (22)
€4m
SU (15)
€3m
SH (8)
€2m
EV (11)
€2m
K. Lierse S.K.'s squad is €2m less valuable than Patro Eisden's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (9)
€7m
BV (13)
€4m
RAI (8)
€3m
KGI (9)
€2m
KGI (7)
€2m
LOK (5)
€2m
KLS (7)
€2m
FB (8)
€2m
DEN (4)
€1m
PE (7)
€1m
SU (4)
€1m
EV (4)
€1m
SH (4)
€1m
K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DEN (6)
€3m
PE (7)
€2m
AE (9)
€2m
KGI (1)
€2m
RAI (3)
€2m
KGI (4)
€1m
FB (5)
€1m
LOK (3)
€1m
SU (3)
€1m
KLS (3)
€1m
BV (2)
€0m
SH (1)
€0m
EV (1)
€0m
K. Lierse S.K.'s midfield is €2m less valuable than Patro Eisden's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BV (11)
€5m
DEN (9)
€4m
PE (11)
€3m
RAI (8)
€3m
AE (8)
€3m
KLS (11)
€3m
KGI (8)
€3m
KGI (8)
€2m
LOK (8)
€2m
FB (9)
€2m
SU (8)
€2m
SH (3)
€1m
EV (6)
€1m
K. Lierse S.K. and Patro Eisden have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Beerschot VA
Excelsior Virton
Club Brugge II
Dender
Lokeren-Temse
Francs Borains
Sporting Hasselt
AS Eupen
Liège
KRC Genk II
KAA Gent II
Seraing United
RSC Anderlecht II