Pythia gives KA Akureyri a 56% win probability against Grindavik in the Iceland: League Cup on 2026-03-07, with 21% for the draw and 23% for Grindavik. The model estimates around 3.9 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (20%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (8.8%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 7.5 (96%), Away under 3.5 goals (93%), Home over 0.5 goals (91%), Over 1.5 (91%).
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw stunned the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, Home win, was wrong. KA Akureyri had been coming off a defeat and their recent form was LDLLD, while Grindavik, also on a losing streak, had LDWLW. The model had given the home side a 56 % chance to win, yet the match ended in a stalemate. The model’s selections performed unevenly: Under 7.5 (95.6 %) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (93.4 %) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (90.7 %) missed, Over 1.5 (90.6 %) missed, Under 6.5 (90.2 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (89.4 %) hit, Away under 2.5 goals (80.8 %) hit, and Under 5.5 (80.4 %) hit. The final score of 0-0 reflected a defensive stalemate that defied the model’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KA Akureyri win✗ Miss
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Grindavik win✗ Miss
23.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KA Akureyri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.77
1.81
1.44
1.43
2.14
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.69
1.81
1.92
1.38
1.46
2.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
2.83
1.67
2.92
1.78
2.78
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
2.92
1.50
2.90
1.73
2.93
vs Weaker (4)
2.75
2.50
2.50
3.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
3% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
90.6%
Under 1.5
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
74.3%
Under 2.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.2%
Under 3.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.2%
No
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.8%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.6%
2-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
3-2
5.2%
3-0
4.6%
KA Akureyri goals ↓
Grindavik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.8%
2.4%
2.3%
1.2%
0.4%
1
4.2%
8.1%
5.6%
2.8%
1.0%
2
5.8%
8.8%
6.6%
3.3%
1.2%
3
4.6%
6.9%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
4
2.7%
4.1%
3.1%
1.6%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KA Akureyri goals (down), columns = Grindavik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
KR Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.43
Keflavik
2.40
IA Akranes
2.20
Fylkir
2.00
Breidablik
2.00
Fram Reykjavik
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IR Reykjavik
1.60
Afturelding
1.50
Stjarnan
1.40
Vestri
1.40
Grotta
1.20
Grindavik
1.20
Throttur Reykjavik
1.20
Ægir
1.10
KA Akureyri
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Njardvik
0.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
0.80
Leiknir R.
0.40
Völsungur
0.40
KA Akureyri is 0.20 points worse than Grindavik in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
3.67
Breidablik
3.20
Afturelding
3.00
Valur Reykjavik
3.00
IA Akranes
2.80
Leiknir R.
2.60
Keflavik
2.60
Stjarnan
2.40
Fram Reykjavik
2.40
Fylkir
2.29
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
2.00
FH hafnarfjordur
2.00
Vestri
2.00
Grindavik
1.80
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.80
Thor Akureyri
1.75
Grotta
1.73
Ægir
1.58
IR Reykjavik
1.40
Njardvik
1.00
KA Akureyri
1.00
HK Kopavogur
0.80
Völsungur
0.60
KA Akureyri is 0.80 goals worse than Grindavik in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Fylkir
0.86
IR Reykjavik
1.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.00
Breidablik
1.20
KR Reykjavik
1.33
Keflavik
1.40
Fram Reykjavik
1.40
Thor Akureyri
1.75
IA Akranes
1.80
Njardvik
1.80
Vestri
1.80
Afturelding
2.00
Stjarnan
2.00
HK Kopavogur
2.20
Throttur Reykjavik
2.20
FH hafnarfjordur
2.25
Grotta
2.40
KA Akureyri
2.40
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.60
Ægir
2.63
Grindavik
3.40
Völsungur
3.40
Leiknir R.
4.00
KA Akureyri is 1.00 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 3.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
KA Akureyri or Draw✓ Hit
77.0%
Avg Implied -
56%
21%
23%
covers KA Akureyri + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri or Grindavik✗ Miss
79.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
21%
23%
covers KA Akureyri + Grindavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Grindavik✓ Hit
43.8%
Avg Implied -
56%
21%
23%
covers Draw + Grindavik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
90.7%
Under
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
68.5%
Under
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
42.3%
Under
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
77.8%
Under
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to KA Akureyri, so a minus line means KA Akureyri give that many goals of a start and Grindavik receive them. At -1, KA Akureyri must win by two or more to land; a one-goal KA Akureyri win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (KA Akureyri)Actual: Grindavik
KA Akureyri -2
19.4%
Draw -2
16.7%
Grindavik +2
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (KA Akureyri)Actual: Grindavik
KA Akureyri -1
36.1%
Draw -1
20.0%
Grindavik +1
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (KA Akureyri)Actual: KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri +1
77.0%
Draw +1
12.4%
Grindavik -1
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (KA Akureyri)Actual: KA Akureyri
KA Akureyri +2
89.4%
Draw +2
6.7%
Grindavik -2
3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KA Akureyri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.77
0.69
0.75
0.64
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.69
0.85
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.47
0.75
1.83
0.67
1.22
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
1.52
0.70
1.80
0.60
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
1.25
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KA Akureyri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.12
0.69
0.79
1.36
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
1.33
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.00
1.23
0.54
0.77
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Grindavik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.37
0.92
1.08
1.11
1.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.40
0.80
1.10
1.13
1.60
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (KA Akureyri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KA Akureyri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KA Akureyri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: Úrvalsdeild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: Úrvalsdeild stats & trends →
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →