The model favours a home win for KAA Gent II, with a 43 % chance, while a draw sits at 27 % and an away win at 30 %. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderate scoring game, yet the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7 % probability. KAA Gent II, playing at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded, whereas Liège, on the road, averages 1.75 goals scored and only 0.25 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals (79.4 %), Over 19.5 fouls (89.0 %), Under 5.5 cards (77.8 %), Over 2.5 cards (76.8 %), and Under 11.5 corners (74.9 %). The Over 21.5 fouls pick is the only miss. The recent form narrative shows Gent II coming off a 0-4 loss, while Liège arrives after a 3-2 victory. All figures are presented as percentages, with no repetition of numbers.
Results analysis
KAA Gent II finished 0-2 against Liège (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 43% home win, 27% draw and 30% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (89%), Over 1.5 (79%), Under 5.5 cards (78%), Over 2.5 cards (77%), Under 11.5 corners (75%). Missed: Over 21.5 fouls (79%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
KAA Gent II win✗ Miss
42.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Liège win✓ Hit
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
KAA Gent II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.60
1.33
1.60
1.40
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
4.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.77
1.09
1.64
1.00
1.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.83
1.17
1.67
1.33
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.81
1.19
1.00
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
1.50
1.10
1.33
1.67
1.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
1.35
2.10
0.90
0.70
1.80
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.4%
Under 1.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.0%
Under 2.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.6%
Under 3.5
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
7.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.0%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
KAA Gent II goals ↓
Liège goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
6.2%
4.8%
2.1%
0.7%
1
7.7%
13%
7.5%
3.3%
1.1%
2
7.0%
9.1%
5.9%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.7%
4.8%
3.1%
1.4%
0.4%
4
1.4%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = KAA Gent II goals (down), columns = Liège goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
SK Beveren
2.75
Kortrijk
2.06
Beerschot VA
2.00
Liège
1.66
Lommel United
1.66
Patro Eisden
1.59
AS Eupen
1.47
Lokeren-Temse
1.31
KAA Gent II
1.28
K. Lierse S.K.
1.19
Seraing United
1.13
RWDM
1.12
Francs Borains
1.09
RSC Anderlecht II
0.97
KRC Genk II
0.97
Club Brugge II
0.66
Olympic Charleroi
0.50
KAA Gent II is 0.38 points worse than Liège in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
SK Beveren
2.31
Lommel United
1.84
Kortrijk
1.81
Beerschot VA
1.62
RWDM
1.56
Lokeren-Temse
1.50
RSC Anderlecht II
1.44
Liège
1.38
Patro Eisden
1.38
AS Eupen
1.38
KAA Gent II
1.31
KRC Genk II
1.31
Seraing United
1.19
K. Lierse S.K.
1.09
Francs Borains
1.03
Club Brugge II
1.03
Olympic Charleroi
0.81
KAA Gent II is 0.06 goals worse than Liège in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Beveren
0.72
Beerschot VA
0.97
Kortrijk
1.06
AS Eupen
1.12
Liège
1.22
Patro Eisden
1.25
K. Lierse S.K.
1.31
Seraing United
1.32
Lokeren-Temse
1.41
Lommel United
1.44
Francs Borains
1.47
KAA Gent II
1.59
RWDM
1.69
Club Brugge II
1.72
RSC Anderlecht II
1.72
KRC Genk II
1.84
Olympic Charleroi
2.12
KAA Gent II is 0.38 goals worse than Liège in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
KAA Gent II
57%
Club Brugge II
56%
SK Beveren
56%
Lommel United
55%
Lokeren-Temse
54%
Kortrijk
53%
Beerschot VA
53%
RSC Anderlecht II
52%
KRC Genk II
52%
AS Eupen
51%
Olympic Charleroi
48%
K. Lierse S.K.
47%
RWDM
47%
Francs Borains
45%
Liège
44%
Seraing United
41%
Patro Eisden
38%
KAA Gent II is 12.6 percentage points better than Liège in terms of average possession (57% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
KAA Gent II
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.7 · Total 25.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Liège
For 4.5 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 12.6 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
KAA Gent II
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
9.5
9.1
10.0
2.9
2.9
2.8
26.5
26.1
26.9
vs Stronger (2)
10.0
10.0
-
5.5
4.0
7.0
30.5
24.0
37.0
vs Similar (22)
9.4
8.1
10.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
26.7
27.7
25.9
vs Weaker (6)
10.0
11.0
8.5
3.3
4.0
2.7
24.4
23.0
26.5
% over line
50%
45%
55%
43%
40%
47%
83%
100%
67%
% under line
50%
55%
45%
57%
60%
53%
17%
0%
33%
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.0
10.8
3.6
3.5
3.8
25.1
25.8
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.9
8.0
11.8
3.6
2.9
4.6
26.2
28.5
23.8
vs Weaker (34)
10.7
10.9
10.4
3.6
3.8
3.4
24.6
24.6
24.6
% over line
51%
42%
60%
52%
58%
46%
72%
74%
70%
% under line
49%
58%
40%
48%
42%
54%
28%
26%
30%
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Lokeren-Temse
10.9
Liège
10.7
Kortrijk
10.2
KRC Genk II
10.2
Beerschot VA
10.2
SK Beveren
9.9
RSC Anderlecht II
9.8
Francs Borains
9.7
RWDM
9.7
Olympic Charleroi
9.7
KAA Gent II
9.5
Club Brugge II
9.5
AS Eupen
9.5
Lommel United
9.1
K. Lierse S.K.
9.1
Seraing United
9.1
Patro Eisden
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lokeren-Temse
5.9
K. Lierse S.K.
5.8
Patro Eisden
5.6
Francs Borains
5.5
Seraing United
5.1
Beerschot VA
4.8
Liège
4.8
AS Eupen
4.7
SK Beveren
4.6
RSC Anderlecht II
4.6
Kortrijk
4.5
RWDM
4.5
Club Brugge II
4.3
Lommel United
4.1
Olympic Charleroi
4.0
KAA Gent II
3.9
KRC Genk II
3.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Lokeren-Temse
28.5
Patro Eisden
28.3
K. Lierse S.K.
27.7
RSC Anderlecht II
27.5
Club Brugge II
26.9
Francs Borains
26.7
KAA Gent II
26.5
AS Eupen
25.8
Seraing United
25.7
KRC Genk II
25.4
Liège
25.3
RWDM
24.8
Lommel United
24.8
Olympic Charleroi
24.4
SK Beveren
24.0
Beerschot VA
23.7
Kortrijk
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.2%
Under 9.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
57.5%
Under 3.5
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
78.8%
Under 21.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
KAA Gent II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.45
0.77
0.64
0.64
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (6)
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.50
0.83
0.83
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.90
0.60
1.20
0.30
0.60
0.90
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
KAA Gent II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
KAA Gent II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.67
1.00
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.59
1.00
0.45
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Liège) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Liège
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.75
0.69
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.60
0.50
0.83
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (20)
0.50
0.75
0.90
0.60
0.10
0.90
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (KAA Gent II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
KAA Gent II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
KAA Gent II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liège over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Belgium: Challenger Pro League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Challenger Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
SK Beveren
Kortrijk
Beerschot VA
Lommel United
Patro Eisden
AS Eupen
Lokeren-Temse
K. Lierse S.K.
RWDM
Seraing United
Francs Borains
RSC Anderlecht II
KRC Genk II
Club Brugge II
Olympic Charleroi