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Kapaz II vs Qarabağ II Result & Analysis

Date: 19/05/2023
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Kapaz II
Kapaz II
Vs
50%
29%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Qarabağ II
Qarabağ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz II win✓ Hit
49.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II win✗ Miss
21.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L04L40W11D01L21W11D02L21W01LH·FK 21/02A·ARA01/03H·MOI07/03A·MIN13/03H·QAR30/03A·SƏB04/04H·NEF12/04A·ZAQ17/04A·IMI03/05H·KEŞ10/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.421.231.540.771.311.69
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (19)1.471.321.440.781.501.80
vs Weaker (5)1.401.002.000.670.501.50
Clean sheet %19% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L20W03L12L10W50W01L20W13LH·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04H·SUM03/05A·ZIR13/05H·TUR16/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.191.421.141.071.251.83
vs Stronger (4)0.502.500.502.000.503.00
vs Similar (18)1.221.331.300.901.121.88
vs Weaker (4)1.750.751.001.002.500.50
Clean sheet %38% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.8%
Under 1.5
29.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.5%
Under 2.5
56.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.5%
Under 3.5
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.8%
No
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
10.1%
2-0
10.1%
2-1 ✓
9.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.1%
Kapaz II goals ↓
Qarabağ II goals →
01234
010%6.9%3.7%1.1%0.3%
112%13%5.6%1.7%0.4%
210%9.2%4.2%1.3%0.3%
35.1%4.6%2.1%0.6%0.1%
41.9%1.7%0.8%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz II goals (down), columns = Qarabağ II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Kapaz II is 0.43 points better than Qarabağ II in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.11).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Kapaz II is 0.32 goals better than Qarabağ II in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Kapaz II is 0.11 goals better than Qarabağ II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.39).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L20W10W00D20W10W01L11D00DH·FK 21/02A·ARA01/03H·MOI07/03A·MIN13/03H·QAR30/03A·SƏB04/04H·NEF12/04A·ZAQ17/04A·IMI03/05H·KEŞ10/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.580.770.310.690.85
vs Stronger (2)1.000.501.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (19)0.680.630.670.330.700.90
vs Weaker (5)0.800.401.000.330.500.50
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D00D01L00D10W01L20W02LH·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04H·SUM03/05A·ZIR13/05H·TUR16/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.580.210.500.500.67
vs Stronger (4)0.001.000.001.500.000.50
vs Similar (18)0.330.560.300.300.380.88
vs Weaker (4)0.750.250.000.501.500.00
Clean sheet %62% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L20W01L01L01L01L01L10W01LH·FK 21/02A·ARA01/03H·MOI07/03A·MIN13/03H·QAR30/03A·SƏB04/04H·NEF12/04A·ZAQ17/04A·IMI03/05H·KEŞ10/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.690.650.770.460.620.85
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (19)0.790.680.780.440.800.90
vs Weaker (5)0.600.601.000.330.001.00
Clean sheet %42% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Qarabağ II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L20W03L11D10W40W00D00D11DH·MIN22/02A·QAR01/03H·SƏB08/03A·NEF13/03H·ZAQ30/03A·IMI12/04H·KEŞ18/04H·SUM03/05A·ZIR13/05H·TUR16/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.850.850.930.570.751.17
vs Stronger (4)0.501.500.500.500.502.50
vs Similar (18)0.890.781.000.600.751.00
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.000.501.000.50
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qarabağ II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
KI wins
0
Draws
0
QI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kapaz II vs Qarabağ II · H/A from KI
DateH/AGameScore
09/11/22AQarabağ II Vs KI1-4

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
10/05/23HKI Vs Keşlə II0-1
03/05/23AImisli FK Vs KI1-2
17/04/23AZaqatala Vs KI2-0
12/04/23HKI Vs Neftçi II1-1
04/04/23ASəbail II Vs KI1-2
30/03/23HKI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
13/03/23AMingəçevir Vs KI1-1
07/03/23HKI Vs MOIK4-0
01/03/23AAraz Vs KI4-0
21/02/23HKI Vs FK Qəbələ II1-2

Qarabağ IIQarabağ II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/23HQI Vs Turan II1-3
13/05/23AZira II Vs QI0-2
03/05/23HQI Vs Sumqayıt II0-1
18/04/23HQI Vs Keşlə II5-0
12/04/23AImisli FK Vs QI0-1
30/03/23HQI Vs Zaqatala1-2
13/03/23ANeftçi II Vs QI3-0
08/03/23HQI Vs Səbail II2-0
01/03/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs QI1-0
22/02/23HQI Vs Mingəçevir1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz II
Kapaz II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.54
HomeLWLDL1.92
AwayLDWLW1.15
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%62%31%
AVG goals2.652.313.00
Over 1.5 %73%62%85%
Over 2.5 %58%54%62%
Over 3.5 %27%15%38%
Scored1.421.541.31
Conceded1.230.771.69
BTTS58%46%69%
Clean Sheet19%38%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Qarabağ II
Qarabağ II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWL1.15
HomeWLWLL1.21
AwayLLLWW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %35%36%33%
AVG goals2.622.213.08
Over 1.5 %69%57%83%
Over 2.5 %46%36%58%
Over 3.5 %27%21%33%
Scored1.191.141.25
Conceded1.421.071.83
BTTS38%36%42%
Clean Sheet38%43%33%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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