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Kapaz II vs Zaqatala Result & Analysis

Date: 01/11/2022
Time: 10:30
Final 2-1
Kapaz II
Kapaz II
Vs
63%
22%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kapaz II win✓ Hit
62.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala win✗ Miss
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D13L01L12L12L10W32W21W11DA·ZIR24/08A·TUR31/08A·FK 06/09H·ARA14/09A·MOI28/09H·MIN05/10A·QAR11/10H·SƏB18/10A·NEF26/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.561.331.001.331.83
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (7)1.431.861.501.501.402.00
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %11% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L21W15L54W02L11D13L40WA·MOI24/08H·MIN30/08A·QAR07/09H·SƏB14/09A·NEF29/09H·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.752.253.001.500.503.00
vs Stronger (7)1.712.433.331.670.503.00
vs Similar (1)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %12% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%17%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.2%
Under 1.5
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.9%
Under 2.5
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.5%
Under 3.5
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.6%
1-1
10.5%
2-1 ✓
9.9%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
4.6%
Kapaz II goals ↓
Zaqatala goals →
01234
05.9%3.7%2.1%0.7%0.2%
19.3%11%4.5%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.6%1.4%0.3%
37.4%6.9%3.2%1.0%0.2%
43.8%3.6%1.7%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kapaz II goals (down), columns = Zaqatala goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Kapaz II is 0.04 points worse than Zaqatala in terms of average points per game (1.54 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Kapaz II is 0.29 goals worse than Zaqatala in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Kapaz II is 0.43 goals better than Zaqatala in terms of goals conceded per game (1.29 vs 1.71).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L12L01L11D01L10W21W00D11DA·ZIR24/08A·TUR31/08A·FK 06/09H·ARA14/09A·MOI28/09H·MIN05/10A·QAR11/10H·SƏB18/10A·NEF26/10
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.781.000.670.330.831.33
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (7)0.711.140.500.500.801.40
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %22% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D04L32W00D01L01L10WA·MOI24/08H·MIN30/08A·QAR07/09H·SƏB14/09A·NEF29/09H·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.621.251.251.000.001.50
vs Stronger (7)0.571.291.331.000.001.50
vs Similar (1)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %25% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kapaz II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D01L11D00D11D21W00DA·ZIR24/08A·TUR31/08A·FK 06/09H·ARA14/09A·MOI28/09H·MIN05/10A·QAR11/10H·SƏB18/10A·NEF26/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.560.560.670.670.500.50
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (7)0.710.711.001.000.600.60
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %44% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Zaqatala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W11D22D02L10W12L30WA·MOI24/08H·MIN30/08A·QAR07/09H·SƏB14/09A·NEF29/09H·QAR12/10A·IMI18/10H·KEŞ26/10
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.121.001.750.500.501.50
vs Stronger (7)1.141.142.000.670.501.50
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %38% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Kapaz II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kapaz II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kapaz II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zaqatala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
KI wins
0
Draws
0
ZAQ wins

Head-to-head

Kapaz II vs Zaqatala · H/A from KI
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Kapaz IIKapaz II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/22ANeftçi II Vs KI1-1
18/10/22HKI Vs Səbail II2-1
11/10/22AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KI2-3
05/10/22HKI Vs Mingəçevir1-0
28/09/22AMOIK Vs KI2-1
14/09/22HKI Vs Araz1-2
06/09/22AFK Qəbələ II Vs KI1-0
31/08/22ATuran II Vs KI3-1
24/08/22AZira II Vs KI2-2

ZaqatalaZaqatala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/22HZAQ Vs Keşlə II4-0
18/10/22AImisli FK Vs ZAQ3-1
12/10/22HZAQ Vs Qarabağ II1-1
29/09/22ANeftçi II Vs ZAQ2-0
14/09/22HZAQ Vs Səbail II5-4
07/09/22AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs ZAQ5-1
30/08/22HZAQ Vs Mingəçevir2-1
24/08/22AMOIK Vs ZAQ2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kapaz II
Kapaz II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.22
HomeLWW2.00
AwayLLLWD0.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%67%17%
AVG goals2.892.333.17
Over 1.5 %78%67%83%
Over 2.5 %67%67%67%
Over 3.5 %33%0%50%
Scored1.331.331.33
Conceded1.561.001.83
BTTS78%67%83%
Clean Sheet11%33%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Zaqatala
Zaqatala
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDLW1.25
HomeWWDW2.50
AwayLLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%75%0%
AVG goals4.004.503.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %62%75%50%
Over 3.5 %50%50%50%
Scored1.753.000.50
Conceded2.251.503.00
BTTS62%75%50%
Clean Sheet12%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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