Karpaty host Shakhtar Donetsk with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.4 goals points to a modestly active match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 with a 13.1% chance. Shakhtar, playing away against a weaker opponent, averages 2.08 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Karpaty’s recent form shows a draw-heavy run of DWWWL and a 1-1 result against Livyi Bereh. Home win probability sits at 20%, a draw at 28%, and away win at 53%. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (98.8%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.5%), Under 5.5 (96.3%), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.9%). These picks reflect the expectation of a controlled, low-scoring affair dominated by Shakhtar’s offensive potency.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Karpaty win
17.9%
Avg Implied 17.0% · @ 5.46
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
5.75
Dafabet
5.60
1xBet
5.60
Superbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
Draw
26.9%
Avg Implied 21.9% · @ 4.22
Edge
+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.37
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Shakhtar Donetsk win
55.2%
Avg Implied 61.1% · @ 1.52
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.56
Dafabet
1.53
Superbet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.50
Betfair
1.47
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Karpaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.83
1.53
0.87
1.47
0.80
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.62
0.94
1.75
0.88
1.50
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.54
1.29
0.86
1.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.83
1.93
0.80
2.00
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.80
1.60
2.00
1.50
1.67
1.67
vs Weaker (25)
2.00
0.68
1.92
0.69
2.08
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Karpaty) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.9%
@ 1.20-5.4%
Under 1.5
28.1%
@ 4.07+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.02
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.9%
@ 1.69-10.4%
Under 2.5
55.1%
@ 2.09+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Superbet
1.69
Betfair
1.65
Under
1xBet
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.7%
@ 2.69-10.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
@ 1.41+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Superbet
2.70
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.59
Under
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Both teams to score
Yes
46.8%
@ 1.77-5.4%
No
53.2%
@ 1.94+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Betfair
1.73
No
Betfair
2.00
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%@ 7.05+7.1%
0-1
12.7%@ 6.68+6.7%
0-2
11.3%@ 6.82+5.5%
0-0
9.6%@ 12.97+6.5%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.09+3.9%
0-3
6.2%@ 9.93+2.2%
1-0
5.9%@ 14.05+3.1%
1-3
5.2%@ 10.53+1.4%
Karpaty goals ↓
Shakhtar Donetsk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
13%
11%
6.2%
2.5%
1
5.9%
13%
9.4%
5.2%
2.1%
2
3.0%
4.8%
3.9%
2.2%
0.9%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Karpaty goals (down), columns = Shakhtar Donetsk goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.40
Livyi Bereh
2.00
LNZ Cherkasy
2.00
Polessya
1.97
Dynamo Kyiv
1.90
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.70
Kolos Kovalivka
1.63
Kryvbas KR
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.53
Karpaty
1.37
Chornomorets
1.36
Bukovyna
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.07
Veres Rivne
1.03
Obolon'-Brovar
0.97
Kudrivka
0.94
Karpaty is 1.03 points worse than Shakhtar Donetsk in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.37
Dynamo Kyiv
2.20
Kryvbas KR
1.77
Polessya
1.70
Zorya Luhansk
1.40
Karpaty
1.33
LNZ Cherkasy
1.30
Chornomorets
1.23
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.20
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.20
Bukovyna
1.17
Kudrivka
1.06
Kolos Kovalivka
1.00
Livyi Bereh
1.00
Veres Rivne
0.87
Obolon'-Brovar
0.86
Karpaty is 1.03 goals worse than Shakhtar Donetsk in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Livyi Bereh
0.50
LNZ Cherkasy
0.57
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0.63
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.70
Polessya
0.70
Kolos Kovalivka
0.83
Karpaty
1.03
Zorya Luhansk
1.20
Dynamo Kyiv
1.20
Chornomorets
1.24
Bukovyna
1.30
Veres Rivne
1.33
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.50
Kryvbas KR
1.53
Kudrivka
1.56
Obolon'-Brovar
1.69
Karpaty is 0.33 goals worse than Shakhtar Donetsk in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Shakhtar Donetsk
68%
Dynamo Kyiv
62%
Livyi Bereh
58%
Polessya
57%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
56%
Zorya Luhansk
52%
Kolos Kovalivka
49%
Kudrivka
49%
Karpaty
49%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
48%
Kryvbas KR
48%
LNZ Cherkasy
44%
Veres Rivne
43%
Obolon'-Brovar
42%
Karpaty is 19.8 percentage points worse than Shakhtar Donetsk in terms of average possession (49% vs 68%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Karpaty
For 4.5 · Against 4.4 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.3 · Total 23.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Shakhtar Donetsk
For 5.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Karpaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.5
8.6
2.9
2.5
3.2
25.0
27.1
23.6
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
8.0
8.0
1.7
2.0
1.0
16.0
17.0
15.0
vs Similar (24)
8.4
8.5
8.3
3.5
2.8
4.2
25.3
28.5
23.1
vs Weaker (23)
9.0
8.8
9.1
2.4
2.3
2.5
26.3
27.5
25.6
% over line
32%
27%
35%
32%
29%
35%
75%
82%
71%
% under line
68%
73%
65%
68%
71%
65%
25%
18%
29%
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
9.1
8.7
2.4
2.5
2.3
19.4
18.4
20.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.2
12.5
6.0
3.9
4.8
3.0
23.0
19.0
27.0
vs Weaker (42)
8.9
8.6
9.2
2.1
2.0
2.1
18.8
18.3
19.5
% over line
39%
40%
38%
32%
36%
28%
14%
7%
23%
% under line
61%
60%
62%
68%
64%
72%
86%
93%
77%
This opponent (Karpaty) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Zorya Luhansk
10.5
Kryvbas KR
10.0
Dynamo Kyiv
9.9
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
9.8
Veres Rivne
9.8
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
9.7
Polessya
9.5
Kudrivka
9.4
Livyi Bereh
9.2
Obolon'-Brovar
9.1
LNZ Cherkasy
9.1
Shakhtar Donetsk
8.9
Chornomorets
8.8
Kolos Kovalivka
8.6
Karpaty
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Karpaty
4.9
Obolon'-Brovar
4.6
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
4.6
LNZ Cherkasy
4.5
Veres Rivne
4.4
Chornomorets
4.4
Livyi Bereh
4.4
Polessya
4.2
Zorya Luhansk
4.1
Dynamo Kyiv
4.0
Kolos Kovalivka
3.9
Kudrivka
3.8
Shakhtar Donetsk
3.8
Kryvbas KR
3.6
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Obolon'-Brovar
26.9
Livyi Bereh
26.2
Kudrivka
25.1
Kryvbas KR
24.6
Karpaty
24.2
Kolos Kovalivka
24.0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
23.7
LNZ Cherkasy
23.0
Veres Rivne
22.8
Chornomorets
22.4
Zorya Luhansk
22.0
Dynamo Kyiv
21.3
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
21.2
Polessya
20.6
Shakhtar Donetsk
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
40.3%
Under 9.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
52.1%
Under 3.5
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.5%
Under 21.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Karpaty or Draw
44.8%
Avg Implied 38.9% · @ 2.41
Edge
+6.0%
18%
27%
55%
covers Karpaty + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.32
Karpaty or Shakhtar Donetsk
73.1%
Avg Implied 78.0% · @ 1.20
Edge
-4.9%
18%
27%
55%
covers Karpaty + Shakhtar Donetsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
82.1%
Avg Implied 83.2% · @ 1.12
Edge
-1.1%
18%
27%
55%
covers Draw + Shakhtar Donetsk
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Karpaty over/under 0.5
Over
56.7%
@ 1.57-2.0%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.23+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Superbet
1.57
Under
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Karpaty over/under 1.5
Over
20.4%
@ 3.77-4.2%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.23+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.70
Under
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Karpaty over/under 2.5
Over
5.3%
@ 10.15-3.9%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
10.00
Under
Superbet
1.03
Karpaty over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5
Over
80.5%
@ 1.09-3.8%
Under
19.5%
@ 5.90+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5
Over
48.7%
@ 1.58-10.3%
Under
51.3%
@ 2.26+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Superbet
1.57
Under
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
Marathonbet
2.26
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5
Over
22.6%
@ 2.75-11.1%
Under
77.4%
@ 1.40+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.77
Superbet
2.72
Under
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 3.5
Over
8.4%
@ 5.45-8.4%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.10+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Under
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Karpaty, so a minus line means Karpaty give that many goals of a start and Shakhtar Donetsk receive them. At -1, Karpaty must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Karpaty win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Karpaty)
Karpaty -2
1.4%
Draw -2
4.5%
Shakhtar Donetsk +2
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Karpaty)
Karpaty -1
6.0%
@ 7.40-4.8%
Draw -1
12.0%
@ 4.45-5.9%
Shakhtar Donetsk +1
82.1%
@ 1.11+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.40
Draw
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap +1 (Karpaty)
Karpaty +1
44.8%
@ 2.42+8.1%
Draw +1
24.5%
@ 3.45-1.2%
Shakhtar Donetsk -1
30.7%
@ 2.36-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.43
Betfair
2.40
Draw
Betfair
3.50
Marathonbet
3.40
Away
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.32
Handicap +2 (Karpaty)
Karpaty +2
69.3%
@ 1.49+10.3%
Draw +2
17.4%
@ 4.40-2.6%
Shakhtar Donetsk -2
13.3%
@ 4.20-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.49
Draw
Marathonbet
4.40
Away
Marathonbet
4.20
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Karpaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.30
0.60
0.20
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.08
0.43
0.14
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.53
0.80
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.20
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (25)
0.72
0.36
0.54
0.54
0.92
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Karpaty) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.4%
@ 1.30-2.7%
Under 0.5
31.6%
@ 3.21+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Under
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.7%
@ 2.43-5.4%
Under 1.5
67.3%
@ 1.50+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.48
Marathonbet
2.47
Betfair
2.40
Superbet
2.37
Under
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
@ 5.76-3.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
@ 1.10+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.50
Superbet
5.40
Under
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Karpaty over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.3%
@ 2.70+5.0%
Under
60.7%
@ 1.40-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.72
Marathonbet
2.72
1xBet
2.65
Under
1xBet
1.42
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Karpaty over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.4%
@ 11.00-0.0%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.01+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
Under
Marathonbet
1.01
Karpaty over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.7%
@ 1.56-7.4%
Under
48.3%
@ 2.26+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.57
Superbet
1.56
Under
Superbet
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5 HT
Over
13.6%
@ 3.81-10.6%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.22+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.70
Under
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Karpaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.46
0.86
0.71
1.00
0.17
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhtar Donetsk) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhtar Donetsk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.43
1.47
0.27
1.20
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.28
0.32
1.38
0.15
1.17
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Karpaty) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.1%
@ 1.18-1.2%
Under 0.5
22.9%
@ 4.25+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Under
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Marathonbet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 1.91-6.8%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.82+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
@ 3.77-5.4%
Under 2.5
80.8%
@ 1.22+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.82
Superbet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.68
Under
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Karpaty over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.9%
@ 2.24+6.8%
Under
52.1%
@ 1.57-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.22
Under
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
Karpaty over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.8%
@ 7.95+1.2%
Under
87.2%
@ 1.04-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Karpaty over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.7%
@ 1.40-10.7%
Under
44.3%
@ 2.76+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.39
Under
1xBet
2.80
Superbet
2.72
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.4%
@ 2.79-12.6%
Under
79.6%
@ 1.38+12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.84
1xBet
2.75
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Shakhtar Donetsk over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.2%
@ 7.00-7.9%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.05+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Under
1xBet
1.05
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+6.2%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.03
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
+6.6%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.8%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
-
-
-
-
+7.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
Away +2 handicap
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-
-
-
+8.4%
Under 4.5
89.5%
1.14
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
-
+8.5%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
1.10
1xBet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
-
+3.5%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.2%
1.04
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
-1.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
-
+10.6%
Draw or Away
82.1%
1.12
1xBet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-1.1%
Away +1 handicap
82.1%
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
-
+10.6%
Under 5.5 cards
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.22
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
-
-
+5.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
80.5%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-3.8%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
79.6%
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
-
-
-
+12.6%
Home under 1.5 goals
79.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
-
-
+4.2%
Away under 2.5 goals
77.4%
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
-
-
+11.1%
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.1%
1.18
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-
-
-1.2%
Under 3.5
76.3%
1.41
1xBet
1.43
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
-
+10.7%
Over 19.5 fouls
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.1%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-4.9%
Over 2.5 cards
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.9%
1.20
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-
-5.4%
Under 10.5 corners
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Karpaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bruninho33%
Igor Krasnopir33%
Baboucarr Faal33%
Xeber Alkain29%
Yan Kostenko25%
Ambrosiy Chachua12%
Igor Neves12%
Jean Pedroso9%
Shakh Artur8%
Vladyslav Babohlo7%
Pavlo Polehenko0%
Volodymyr Adamyuk0%
Denys Miroshnichenko0%
Rostyslav Liakh0%
Valentyn Rubchynskyi0%
Edson Fernando0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Vladiylav Klymenko0%
Pablo Alvarez0%
Oleksiy Sych0%
Yaroslav Karabin0%
Stênio Zanetti0%
Patricio Tanda0%
Marko Sapuga0%
Ilya Kvasnytsya0%
Vitaliy Kholod0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira0%
Nazar Domchak0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Eriki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vladyslav Babohlo50%
Pablo Alvarez33%
Rostyslav Liakh29%
Bruninho27%
Denys Miroshnichenko25%
Marko Sapuga25%
Vitaliy Kholod25%
Patricio Tanda22%
Igor Krasnopir22%
Edson Fernando20%
Yan Kostenko17%
Nazar Domchak12%
Jean Pedroso9%
Ambrosiy Chachua6%
Pavlo Polehenko0%
Volodymyr Adamyuk0%
Valentyn Rubchynskyi0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Vladiylav Klymenko0%
Xeber Alkain0%
Oleksiy Sych0%
Yaroslav Karabin0%
Stênio Zanetti0%
Igor Neves0%
Ilya Kvasnytsya0%
Shakh Artur0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Baboucarr Faal0%
Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Eriki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Baboucarr Faal33%
Valentyn Rubchynskyi25%
Vladyslav Babohlo14%
Ambrosiy Chachua12%
Yaroslav Karabin12%
Jean Pedroso9%
Bruninho7%
Pavlo Polehenko0%
Volodymyr Adamyuk0%
Denys Miroshnichenko0%
Rostyslav Liakh0%
Edson Fernando0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Vladiylav Klymenko0%
Xeber Alkain0%
Pablo Alvarez0%
Oleksiy Sych0%
Yan Kostenko0%
Stênio Zanetti0%
Igor Neves0%
Patricio Tanda0%
Marko Sapuga0%
Ilya Kvasnytsya0%
Vitaliy Kholod0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Shakh Artur0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira0%
Nazar Domchak0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Eriki0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ambrosiy Chachua19%
Denys Miroshnichenko17%
Baboucarr Faal17%
Xeber Alkain14%
Paulo Vitor12%
Igor Neves12%
Jean Pedroso9%
Yan Kostenko8%
Bruninho7%
Vladyslav Babohlo0%
Pavlo Polehenko0%
Volodymyr Adamyuk0%
Rostyslav Liakh0%
Valentyn Rubchynskyi0%
Edson Fernando0%
Vladiylav Klymenko0%
Pablo Alvarez0%
Oleksiy Sych0%
Yaroslav Karabin0%
Stênio Zanetti0%
Patricio Tanda0%
Marko Sapuga0%
Ilya Kvasnytsya0%
Vitaliy Kholod0%
Igor Krasnopir0%
Shakh Artur0%
Oleg Fedor0%
Fabiano Rodrigues Pereira0%
Nazar Domchak0%
Paulo Vitor0%
Eriki0%
Shakhtar Donetsk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Luca Meirelles39%
Eguinaldo35%
Kauã Elias33%
Maryan Shved25%
Alisson Santana23%
Newerton Palmares23%
Pedrinho19%
Yehor Nazaryna17%
Isaque13%
Oleg Ocheretko12%
Marlon Gomes11%
Lucas Ferreira11%
Lassina Traoré10%
Artem Bondarenko10%
Alaa Ghram9%
Valeriy Bondar8%
Yukhym Konoplia7%
Vinícius Tobias5%
Pedro Henrique5%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Irakli Azarovi0%
Marlon0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Prosper Obah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yukhym Konoplia27%
Valeriy Bondar25%
Vinícius Tobias19%
Pedro Henrique19%
Irakli Azarovi18%
Eguinaldo18%
Marlon Gomes16%
Oleg Ocheretko12%
Dmytro Kryskiv12%
Marlon11%
Alaa Ghram9%
Newerton Palmares9%
Mykola Matviyenko9%
Isaque9%
Alisson Santana8%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Luca Meirelles6%
Pedrinho5%
Kauã Elias5%
Lassina Traoré0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Maryan Shved0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Georgiy Sudakov0%
Artem Bondarenko0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Prosper Obah0%
Lucas Ferreira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaque26%
Georgiy Sudakov25%
Kauã Elias24%
Yukhym Konoplia20%
Irakli Azarovi18%
Marlon Gomes16%
Pedrinho14%
Artem Bondarenko10%
Pedro Henrique10%
Oleg Ocheretko8%
Alisson Santana8%
Eguinaldo6%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Lucas Ferreira5%
Dmytro Riznyk5%
Vinícius Tobias5%
Lassina Traoré0%
Valeriy Bondar0%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Marlon0%
Alaa Ghram0%
Maryan Shved0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Newerton Palmares0%
Prosper Obah0%
Luca Meirelles0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Eguinaldo35%
Kauã Elias33%
Alisson Santana31%
Lassina Traoré30%
Georgiy Sudakov25%
Newerton Palmares23%
Lucas Ferreira11%
Yehor Nazaryna6%
Luca Meirelles6%
Pedro Henrique5%
Valeriy Bondar0%
Mykola Matviyenko0%
Dmytro Riznyk0%
Pedrinho0%
Irakli Azarovi0%
Marlon0%
Alaa Ghram0%
Maryan Shved0%
Yukhym Konoplia0%
Kiril Fesyun0%
Oleg Ocheretko0%
Artem Bondarenko0%
Dmytro Kryskiv0%
Vinícius Tobias0%
Anton Glushchenko0%
Marlon Gomes0%
Prosper Obah0%
Isaque0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (33)
€186m
DK (37)
€91m
POL (32)
€34m
M1K (26)
€28m
LC (25)
€20m
KAR (28)
€13m
KK (27)
€13m
ZL (27)
€11m
KK (19)
€11m
BUK (25)
€9m
VR (21)
€7m
OBO (28)
€7m
ED (23)
€6m
CHO (21)
€5m
KUD (24)
€5m
LB (25)
€5m
Karpaty's squad is €173m less valuable than Shakhtar Donetsk's (€13m vs €186m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (16)
€115m
DK (13)
€32m
POL (9)
€12m
M1K (10)
€10m
LC (9)
€8m
KK (10)
€5m
KAR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€4m
ZL (11)
€3m
KK (7)
€3m
VR (9)
€3m
OBO (9)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
LB (7)
€2m
KUD (8)
€2m
ED (6)
€1m
Karpaty's attack is €111m less valuable than Shakhtar Donetsk's (€4m vs €115m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DK (8)
€26m
SD (4)
€19m
POL (9)
€8m
M1K (6)
€7m
LC (5)
€5m
KK (4)
€3m
ZL (5)
€3m
KAR (5)
€2m
KK (5)
€2m
BUK (5)
€2m
ED (6)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
OBO (5)
€1m
KUD (6)
€1m
VR (4)
€1m
LB (6)
€1m
Karpaty's midfield is €16m less valuable than Shakhtar Donetsk's (€2m vs €19m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SD (13)
€52m
DK (16)
€33m
POL (14)
€14m
M1K (10)
€11m
LC (11)
€7m
KAR (15)
€7m
KK (7)
€6m
ZL (11)
€6m
KK (13)
€5m
VR (8)
€4m
BUK (10)
€3m
ED (11)
€3m
OBO (14)
€3m
KUD (10)
€3m
LB (12)
€2m
CHO (7)
€2m
Karpaty's defence is €45m less valuable than Shakhtar Donetsk's (€7m vs €52m).
Ukraine: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Polessya
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Bukovyna
Veres Rivne
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
Livyi Bereh
Chornomorets
Obolon'-Brovar
Kudrivka
Kolos Kovalivka