The encounter between Kauno Žalgiris II and Minija is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for Kauno Žalgiris II, 26% for a draw, and 34% for Minija. The expected total goals sit at 3.0, yet the most likely total is two, with a 23% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.2% probability. Kauno Žalgiris II, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. Minija, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded. The model’s suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 81.5% probability. All match-result probabilities are explicitly stated: 40% home win, 26% draw, 34% away win.
Results analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II extended a two-game winning run with a 5-0 demolition of Minija, confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, carried a 40% probability and proved correct. The model’s sole selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 81.5% chance. The final score of 5-0 matched the actual result, a decisive home victory. Kauno Žalgiris II’s recent form, highlighted by a 3-0 win over Hegelmann II, and Minija’s five-game winning streak on the road, set the stage for a dominant performance that the prediction model captured accurately.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II win✓ Hit
40.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win✗ Miss
33.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.50
1.50
3.00
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.60
1.50
3.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.27
1.20
0.67
1.07
1.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
1.38
0.86
0.71
0.67
2.17
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.33
1.80
0.40
1.29
2.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.5%
Under 1.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
58.1%
Under 2.5
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.7%
Under 3.5
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.7%
No
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
2-0
6.1%
0-0
6.0%
0-1
5.9%
Kauno Žalgiris II goals ↓
Minija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.0%
5.9%
5.0%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.6%
12%
8.0%
3.8%
1.4%
2
6.1%
8.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.2%
4.6%
3.3%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.8%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.31
Be1 NFA
1.83
Babrungas
1.70
Minija
1.66
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.66
Nevėžis
1.66
Šilas
1.52
Trakai II
1.48
Garliava
1.33
Ekranas
1.30
BFA
1.27
FA Šiauliai II
1.10
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.07
Panevėžys II
1.03
Žalgiris II
0.93
Jonava
0.41
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.59 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (1.07 vs 1.66).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
TransINVEST Vilnius
2.76
Babrungas
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.66
Trakai II
1.59
FA Šiauliai II
1.57
Žalgiris II
1.53
Nevėžis
1.52
Panevėžys II
1.50
Minija
1.45
Garliava
1.43
Ekranas
1.40
BFA
1.33
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.33
Šilas
1.17
Jonava
0.86
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.11 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.45).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
TransINVEST Vilnius
1.00
Be1 NFA
1.03
Nevėžis
1.10
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.14
Trakai II
1.14
Garliava
1.23
Minija
1.28
BFA
1.37
Ekranas
1.63
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.63
Babrungas
1.63
Šilas
1.87
Panevėžys II
1.97
Žalgiris II
2.20
FA Šiauliai II
2.20
Jonava
2.62
Kauno Žalgiris II is 0.36 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (1.63 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.17
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.75
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.53
0.87
vs Stronger (13)
0.23
0.62
0.14
0.29
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.20
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.20
0.40
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.00
0.75
0.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.00
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.80
0.33
0.53
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
0.77
0.71
0.43
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.20
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.67
0.33
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (24)
€5m
ŽI (6)
€1m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (8)
€2m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (5)
€1m
FŠI (2)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TV (11)
€2m
ŽI (3)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
Kauno Žalgiris II and Minija have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
TransINVEST Vilnius
Be1 NFA
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Nevėžis
Trakai II
Garliava
Ekranas
BFA
Šilas
FA Šiauliai II
Panevėžys II
Žalgiris II
Jonava