Kelty Hearts look set to keep the score tight, with a defensive focus that matches the model’s low-scoring projection of 2.1 goals. The model favours a home win, assigning a 53% chance to Kelty, 30% to a draw and 18% to Clyde. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, a 15.8% probability, while the expected total of 2.1 goals leans toward a 2-goal match at 28%. Kelty’s home form shows they average 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded against weaker opposition, whereas Clyde’s away numbers are 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals (83.6%), Under 25.5 fouls (83.3%), Under 5.5 cards (80.7%), Under 11.5 corners (77.0%), Over 2.5 cards (74.0%) and Under 23.5 fouls (71.0%). The model’s selection for a home win aligns with the 53% probability, while the draw and away win chances remain 30% and 18% respectively.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ recent run of LWLWL, still recovering from a 0-2 loss, found its rhythm at home, while Clyde’s DWWLW away form showed a team still finding its footing. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct as Kelty Hearts edged Clyde 2-1. The pre-match probability for the favourite was 53%. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5 goals hit at 83.6%, Under 25.5 fouls at 83.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 80.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 74.0%, and Under 23.5 fouls at 71.0%. All predictions settled in the final result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✓ Hit
52.5%
Avg Implied 42.2% · @ 2.17
Edge
+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.37
Edge
+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 2.99
Edge
-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.10
1.64
0.71
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.94
0.94
1.50
0.38
0.38
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
1.29
1.83
1.17
1.38
1.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.77
1.40
1.93
0.87
1.60
vs Stronger (28)
1.14
1.71
1.43
1.86
0.86
1.57
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.5%
Under 1.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.4%
@ 1.73-18.4%
Under 2.5
64.6%
@ 2.01+18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.4%
Under 3.5
83.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.5%
No
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.8%
0-0
13.3%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
11.9%
2-1 ✓
8.4%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
4.2%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
7.4%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.4%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
5.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.3%
0.1%
4
2.0%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunfermline
2.25
Falkirk
1.86
Airdrie United
1.67
Alloa
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.50
FC Edinburgh
1.42
Montrose
1.33
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Clyde
0.67
Peterhead
0.44
Kelty Hearts is 0.44 points better than Clyde in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.28
Falkirk
1.94
Dunfermline
1.75
FC Edinburgh
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.64
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.39
Kelty Hearts
1.08
Clyde
0.97
Peterhead
0.53
Kelty Hearts is 0.11 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.58
Falkirk
1.08
Alloa
1.31
Airdrie United
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.50
Montrose
1.53
FC Edinburgh
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.64
Clyde
1.89
Peterhead
2.33
Kelty Hearts is 0.39 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 4.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 4.9 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 12.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (46)
9.0
9.0
9.1
3.4
3.6
3.2
20.9
20.3
21.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
9.3
9.4
9.2
3.8
3.5
4.2
21.9
20.2
23.8
vs Weaker (25)
8.8
8.6
9.1
3.0
3.8
2.4
20.1
20.3
19.9
% over line
41%
35%
48%
39%
48%
30%
41%
30%
52%
% under line
59%
65%
52%
61%
52%
70%
59%
70%
48%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
9.0
4.0
4.3
3.7
22.3
22.6
21.9
vs Stronger (45)
9.2
9.7
8.8
4.0
4.1
3.8
22.1
22.1
22.1
vs Similar (5)
11.4
11.0
12.0
4.4
5.7
2.5
23.8
26.3
20.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
58%
50%
58%
71%
46%
56%
58%
54%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
42%
29%
54%
44%
42%
46%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Peterhead
10.0
Dunfermline
10.0
Queen of Sth
10.0
Falkirk
9.9
Montrose
9.8
Airdrie United
9.7
Alloa
9.7
Clyde
9.4
FC Edinburgh
9.2
Kelty Hearts
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Falkirk
4.3
Peterhead
4.1
Clyde
4.0
Montrose
3.6
FC Edinburgh
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Alloa
3.2
Dunfermline
3.2
Queen of Sth
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
24.9
Montrose
22.7
Clyde
22.3
Falkirk
22.1
Dunfermline
21.0
Kelty Hearts
20.9
Alloa
20.7
Queen of Sth
20.3
Airdrie United
19.2
FC Edinburgh
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.6%
Under 9.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
53.8%
Under 3.5
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
44.9%
Under 21.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.30
1.00
0.14
0.31
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.38
0.88
0.12
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.21
1.17
0.17
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (28)
0.50
0.64
0.57
0.64
0.43
0.64
vs Similar (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.64
0.57
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.56
0.62
0.25
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
1.07
0.67
1.00
0.88
1.12
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.80
1.13
0.40
0.93
vs Stronger (28)
0.64
1.07
0.86
1.21
0.43
0.93
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
KH (4)
€1m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
KH (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →