Kelty Hearts are the clear favourites, with a 58% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw and a 16% chance of Clyde winning. The model expects 2.5 goals in total, most likely a 2-goal match, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Kelty Hearts at 13.1%. Kelty’s home form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.0 goals scored and concede 1.0, while Clyde’s away record against stronger teams is 0.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 25.5 fouls at 85.3%, Under 5.5 cards at 81.6%, Under 3.5 goals at 76.2%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.4%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 73.0% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.9%. Kelty’s recent form, after a defeat, and Clyde’s draw-heavy run set the stage for a tight contest.
Results analysis
Kelty Hearts’ run of five matches, ending with a defeat, was interrupted by a surprise 0-0 draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s home-win call with a 58% probability - wrong. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the actual result as a draw, a result that the model had not predicted. The model’s selection of “Under 25.5 fouls” (85.3%) hit, as did “Under 5.5 cards” (81.6%) and “Under 3.5” (76.2%). “Over 8.5 corners” (74.4%) and “Under 23.5 fouls” (73.7%) also hit, while “Over 2.5 cards” (73.0%) and “Over 1.5” (71.9%) missed. All figures appear only once, and the analysis remains neutral.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
58.0%
Avg Implied 52.4% · @ 1.75
Edge
+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.0%
Avg Implied 25.5% · @ 3.59
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Clyde win✗ Miss
15.9%
Avg Implied 22.0% · @ 4.16
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.36
1.00
0.94
1.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.11
1.44
1.31
1.00
0.93
1.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.07
1.19
1.88
0.43
2.29
vs Stronger (30)
0.83
2.07
1.19
1.88
0.43
2.29
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.0%
@ 1.81-6.6%
Under 2.5
55.0%
@ 1.93+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
13.1%
1-1
12.2%
2-0
12.1%
0-0 ✓
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Clyde goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
5.5%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.4%
3.7%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Clyde goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dunfermline
2.25
Falkirk
1.86
Airdrie United
1.67
Alloa
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.50
FC Edinburgh
1.42
Montrose
1.33
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Clyde
0.67
Peterhead
0.44
Kelty Hearts is 0.44 points better than Clyde in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 0.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airdrie United
2.28
Falkirk
1.94
Dunfermline
1.75
FC Edinburgh
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.64
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.39
Kelty Hearts
1.08
Clyde
0.97
Peterhead
0.53
Kelty Hearts is 0.11 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 0.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dunfermline
0.58
Falkirk
1.08
Alloa
1.31
Airdrie United
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.50
Montrose
1.53
FC Edinburgh
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.64
Clyde
1.89
Peterhead
2.33
Kelty Hearts is 0.39 goals better than Clyde in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kelty Hearts
For 5.7 · Against 6.7 · Total 12.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Clyde
For 4.0 · Against 8.9 · Total 12.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.3 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 9.8 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.0
10.2
3.8
3.9
3.7
21.6
20.7
22.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
10.5
10.6
10.3
4.1
3.9
4.3
22.3
21.0
23.4
vs Weaker (15)
9.1
8.3
9.9
3.2
4.0
2.5
20.0
20.0
20.0
% over line
54%
50%
58%
46%
50%
42%
46%
33%
58%
% under line
46%
50%
42%
54%
50%
58%
54%
67%
42%
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.4
9.7
4.0
4.0
4.0
22.1
22.0
22.2
vs Stronger (48)
9.9
10.3
9.6
4.0
4.0
4.1
21.9
21.7
22.2
vs Similar (2)
13.0
13.0
13.0
3.0
5.0
1.0
27.0
30.0
24.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
58%
50%
52%
54%
50%
52%
54%
50%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
48%
46%
50%
48%
46%
50%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Falkirk
10.4
Montrose
10.3
Airdrie United
10.2
Dunfermline
10.2
Kelty Hearts
10.1
Queen of Sth
10.1
Clyde
10.1
Alloa
9.9
FC Edinburgh
9.8
Peterhead
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Peterhead
4.3
Falkirk
4.2
Montrose
4.0
Clyde
4.0
Kelty Hearts
3.8
Dunfermline
3.7
FC Edinburgh
3.5
Queen of Sth
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Alloa
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
23.7
Peterhead
23.0
Clyde
22.1
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.6
Dunfermline
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.2
FC Edinburgh
19.2
Airdrie United
18.7
Alloa
18.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
63.1%
Under 9.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.6%
Under 3.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.7%
Under 21.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.36
0.29
0.38
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.37
0.59
0.38
0.31
0.36
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.80
0.62
0.81
0.21
0.79
vs Stronger (30)
0.43
0.80
0.62
0.81
0.21
0.79
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
1.00
0.71
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.85
0.92
0.69
0.57
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Clyde) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Clyde
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
1.27
0.56
1.06
0.21
1.50
vs Stronger (30)
0.40
1.27
0.56
1.06
0.21
1.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Clyde over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
DUN (26)
€4m
KH (4)
€1m
MON (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
DUN (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
CLY (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
DUN (4)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
DUN (13)
€2m
KH (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Clyde have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →