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Kelty Hearts vs Cove Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 25/04/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Vs
20%
26%
53%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
Scotland: League One
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Kelty Hearts a 20% win probability against Cove Rangers in the Scotland: League One on 2026-04-25, with 26% for the draw and 53% for Cove Rangers. The model estimates around 2.7 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

Results analysis

Kelty Hearts finished 0-2 against Cove Rangers (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 20% home win, 26% draw and 53% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (76%), Under 3.5 (72%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
20.3%
Avg Implied 31.0% · @ 2.89
Edge
-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 27.1% · @ 3.31
Edge
-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers win✓ Hit
53.4%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.14
Edge
+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D11D12L11D02L21W11D31W01LA·COV21/02H·INV28/02A·MON03/03A·ALL07/03H·EAS14/03A·STE21/03A·HAM28/03H·QUE04/04H·MON11/04A·INV18/04
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.730.691.751.141.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.001.830.851.921.201.70
vs Weaker (7)0.571.430.001.001.001.75
Clean sheet %13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cove RangersCove Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W11D01L21W11D22D01L32W02L20WH·MON17/02H·KEL21/02A·STE28/02H·PET07/03A·INV14/03H·HAM21/03H·ALL04/04A·MON07/04A·QUE11/04H·STE18/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.170.931.001.401.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.471.320.891.112.001.50
vs Weaker (11)0.640.911.000.830.201.00
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.6%
@ 1.81-0.9%
Under 2.5
50.4%
@ 1.85+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.7%
Under 3.5
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.7%
No
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
0-1
10.7%
0-2 ✓
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
0-3
5.7%
1-0
5.6%
2-1
5.5%
Kelty Hearts goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
01234
08.1%11%10%5.7%2.4%
15.6%13%9.7%5.5%2.3%
23.3%5.5%4.7%2.6%1.1%
31.0%1.8%1.5%0.8%0.4%
40.3%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kelty Hearts goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Inverness CT
2.06
Stenhousemuir
1.86
Hamilton
1.53
Queen of Sth
1.50
Alloa
1.47
Clyde
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Kelty Hearts
0.81
Spartans
0.50
Forfar
0.00
Kelty Hearts is 0.25 points worse than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (0.81 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Clyde
1.75
Inverness CT
1.67
Queen of Sth
1.61
Hamilton
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.39
Alloa
1.39
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
Forfar
1.00
East Fife
0.94
Kelty Hearts
0.92
Spartans
0.50
Kelty Hearts is 0.22 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (0.92 vs 1.14).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
0.67
Stenhousemuir
0.75
Alloa
1.06
Hamilton
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.31
Spartans
1.50
Clyde
1.50
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Kelty Hearts
1.72
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Forfar
2.50
Kelty Hearts is 0.50 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.72 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

For 3.9 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.6

🚩 Corners

17054427261147385425431096917111197413A·INVH·MONH·QUEA·HAMA·STEH·EASA·ALLA·MONH·INVA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.4

🟨 Cards

7011312513611314322222474714744A·INVH·MONH·QUEA·HAMA·STEH·EASA·ALLA·MONH·INVA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.8 · Against 14.4 · Total 24.2

⚠️ Fouls

3806141521910101318205151114111381051420361923382025241819A·INVH·MONH·QUEA·HAMA·STEH·EASA·ALLA·MONH·INVA·COV
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Cove RangersCove Rangers

For 5.2 · Against 3.8 · Total 9.0

🚩 Corners

14043575688215149510313712118106514134H·STEA·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1

🟨 Cards

601511221121132222116223134442H·STEA·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 9.4 · Total 21.5

⚠️ Fouls

31017119111311151061395201111111457628202425191431221913H·STEA·QUEA·MONH·ALLH·HAMA·INVH·PETA·STEH·KELH·MON
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.09.18.94.23.94.622.021.023.1
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (35)8.99.88.14.43.94.822.321.223.4
vs Weaker (15)9.17.510.93.93.84.021.420.422.6
% over line40%42%38%66%62%71%46%35%58%
% under line60%58%62%34%38%29%54%65%42%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Cove RangersCove Rangers

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.19.83.03.62.521.122.120.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (30)9.89.610.03.23.92.521.822.521.0
vs Weaker (20)8.98.39.62.83.12.420.021.618.4
% over line41%35%48%34%48%20%46%48%43%
% under line59%65%52%66%52%80%54%52%57%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Hamilton
10.5
Alloa
9.8
East Fife
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Spartans
9.1
Inverness CT
9.1
Kelty Hearts
9.0
Forfar
8.9
Peterhead
8.8
Queen of Sth
8.6
Montrose
8.6
Stenhousemuir
8.5

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Peterhead
5.1
Queen of Sth
4.9
Stenhousemuir
4.8
Forfar
4.5
Alloa
4.4
Clyde
4.4
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Spartans
4.2
East Fife
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Inverness CT
3.6
Hamilton
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.2

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
Stenhousemuir
25.1
Forfar
24.3
Queen of Sth
23.6
East Fife
23.0
Alloa
22.5
Clyde
22.3
Montrose
22.0
Kelty Hearts
22.0
Inverness CT
21.6
Hamilton
21.1
Cove Rangers
20.8
Spartans
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.6%
Under 9.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.2%
Under 3.5
52.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
56.3%
Under 21.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (4)
€1m
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Cove Rangers have a similar squad value (both €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KH (3)
€1m
MON (1)
€0m
ALL (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
HAM (0)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Cove Rangers have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STE (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
QOS (0)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
MON (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QOS (2)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
KH (1)
€0m
HAM (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
ALL (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Kelty Hearts and Cove Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Kelty Hearts vs Cove Rangers · H/A from KH
DateH/AGameScore
21/02/26ACove Rangers Vs KH1-1
20/12/25HKH Vs Cove Rangers2-5
27/09/25ACove Rangers Vs KH0-2
26/04/25ACove Rangers Vs KH2-2
11/03/25HKH Vs Cove Rangers0-4
14/12/24ACove Rangers Vs KH0-0
14/09/24HKH Vs Cove Rangers1-3
16/03/24HKH Vs Cove Rangers0-1

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AInverness CT Vs KH1-0
11/04/26HKH Vs Montrose3-1
04/04/26HKH Vs Queen of Sth1-1
28/03/26AHamilton Vs KH1-2
21/03/26AStenhousemuir Vs KH2-0
14/03/26HKH Vs East Fife1-1
07/03/26AAlloa Vs KH2-1
03/03/26AMontrose Vs KH1-1
28/02/26HKH Vs Inverness CT0-0
21/02/26ACove Rangers Vs KH1-1

Cove RangersCove Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26HCR Vs Stenhousemuir2-0
11/04/26AQueen of Sth Vs CR2-0
07/04/26AMontrose Vs CR2-3
04/04/26HCR Vs Alloa0-1
21/03/26HCR Vs Hamilton2-2
14/03/26AInverness CT Vs CR1-1
07/03/26HCR Vs Peterhead2-1
28/02/26AStenhousemuir Vs CR1-0
21/02/26HCR Vs Kelty Hearts1-1
17/02/26HCR Vs Montrose3-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL0.80
HomeDDDDW0.62
AwayDLLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %16%8%25%
AVG goals2.602.542.67
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored0.860.621.12
Conceded1.741.921.54
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet18%15%21%
Corners8.989.088.88
Cards4.223.884.58
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLW1.16
HomeDWDLW1.20
AwayLLDWL1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%28%28%
AVG goals2.542.362.72
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %50%48%52%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored1.281.121.44
Conceded1.261.241.28
BTTS52%56%48%
Clean Sheet20%16%24%
Corners9.469.099.83
Cards3.303.912.70

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Inverness CTInverness CT3674
58%
2.1
6024+36
2.3
72%
39%
25%
9.1
39%
3.5
47%
22.2
53%
0
0001.70.7
-
2StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3667
50%
1.9
5027+23
2.1
64%
33%
22%
8.6
39%
5.2
81%
27.0
81%
0
0001.40.8
-
3
H
Hamilton		3655
44%
1.5
5442+12
2.7
75%
58%
33%
9.7
44%
3.2
42%
20.4
39%
0
0001.51.2
-
4
QO
Queen of Sth		3654
39%
1.5
5847+11
2.9
92%
53%
33%
8.9
33%
5.2
75%
24.3
67%
0
0001.61.3
-
5
A
Alloa		3653
42%
1.5
5038+12
2.4
67%
44%
22%
9.4
42%
4.5
61%
23.4
64%
0
0001.41.1
-
6PeterheadPeterhead3643
33%
1.2
4864-16
3.1
92%
67%
42%
9.5
44%
5.0
78%
27.9
86%
0
0001.31.8
-
7MontroseMontrose3642
31%
1.2
4867-19
3.2
89%
61%
39%
8.6
31%
3.7
61%
23.7
69%
0
0001.31.9
-
8Cove RangersCove Rangers3638
25%
1.1
4144-3
2.4
69%
39%
22%
9.4
44%
3.5
47%
22.3
53%
0
0001.11.2
-
9East FifeEast Fife3636
25%
1.0
3461-27
2.6
78%
50%
22%
9.6
47%
3.4
50%
22.8
56%
0
0000.91.7
-
10Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3629
17%
0.8
3362-29
2.6
86%
50%
22%
9.4
42%
4.7
75%
23.8
61%
1
1000.91.7
-
11Hamilton AcademicalHamilton Academical410
75%
2.5
106+4
4.0
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.5
-
12ClydeClyde45
25%
1.2
76+1
3.2
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
13SpartansSpartans21
0%
0.5
13-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.5
-
14ForfarForfar20
0%
0.0
25-3
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.5
-
Scotland: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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