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Keşlə II vs Səbail II Result & Analysis

Date: 29/03/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 2-4
Keşlə II
Keşlə II
Vs
51%
23%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Səbail II
Səbail II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Keşlə II win✗ Miss
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Səbail II win✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Keşlə IIKeşlə II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W21W21W23L11D02L24L10W31WA·IMI09/11H·KAP06/12H·SUM10/12H·ZIR17/12H·TUR07/02A·FK 15/02H·ARA22/02A·MOI01/03A·QAR13/03H·MIN24/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.351.801.641.451.002.22
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (16)1.251.621.671.330.712.00
vs Weaker (3)2.332.333.001.002.003.00
Clean sheet %15% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Səbail IISəbail II

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W11D02L13L30W30W15L31W02L20WH·TUR08/11A·FK 01/12H·ARA05/12A·MOI11/12H·MIN17/12H·QAR08/02A·NEF22/02H·ZAQ01/03A·QAR08/03H·IMI13/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.791.682.001.001.562.44
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.471.601.711.001.252.12
vs Weaker (4)3.002.002.671.004.005.00
Clean sheet %26% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Keşlə II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%09%119%221%319%413%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.7%
Under 1.5
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
68.6%
Under 2.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
68.0%
No
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.7%
2-1
9.2%
2-2
6.7%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
2-0
6.3%
1-0
5.2%
3-2
4.6%
Keşlə II goals ↓
Səbail II goals →
01234
03.8%3.4%3.1%1.5%0.6%
15.2%9.7%6.4%3.1%1.1%
26.3%9.2%6.7%3.3%1.2%
34.4%6.3%4.6%2.3%0.8%
42.3%3.3%2.4%1.2%0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Keşlə II goals (down), columns = Səbail II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.11
Turan II
1.71
Zaqatala
1.57
Səbail II
1.57
FK Qəbələ II
1.57
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.54
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.46
Keşlə II
1.32
Qarabağ II
1.11
Zira II
1.11
Sumqayıt II
0.79
Imisli FK
0.71
Mingəçevir
0.61
Keşlə II is 0.25 points worse than Səbail II in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Araz
2.46
Neftçi II
2.39
Zaqatala
1.75
Turan II
1.75
Səbail II
1.64
FK Qəbələ II
1.61
MOIK
1.54
Kapaz II
1.46
Keşlə II
1.43
Sumqayıt II
1.29
Qarabağ II
1.14
Zira II
1.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.07
Mingəçevir
0.93
Imisli FK
0.75
Keşlə II is 0.21 goals worse than Səbail II in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 1.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Araz
0.79
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.82
FK Qəbələ II
1.00
Neftçi II
1.14
Kapaz II
1.29
Turan II
1.32
Zira II
1.36
Qarabağ II
1.39
MOIK
1.50
Səbail II
1.57
Zaqatala
1.71
Mingəçevir
1.93
Keşlə II
2.00
Sumqayıt II
2.14
Imisli FK
2.36
Keşlə II is 0.43 goals worse than Səbail II in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Keşlə IIKeşlə II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D10W10W10W11D02L20W00D00DA·IMI09/11H·KAP06/12H·SUM10/12H·ZIR17/12H·TUR07/02A·FK 15/02H·ARA22/02A·MOI01/03A·QAR13/03H·MIN24/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.550.550.360.440.78
vs Stronger (1)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (16)0.620.500.670.330.570.71
vs Weaker (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %55% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Səbail IISəbail II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-510W01L00D02L20W20W15L00D00D10WH·TUR08/11A·FK 01/12H·ARA05/12A·MOI11/12H·MIN17/12H·QAR08/02A·NEF22/02H·ZAQ01/03A·QAR08/03H·IMI13/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.840.951.000.400.671.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.931.000.430.501.38
vs Weaker (4)1.251.001.000.332.003.00
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Keşlə II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Keşlə II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keşlə II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keşlə II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Keşlə IIKeşlə II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W11D11D13L00D00D04L10W31WA·IMI09/11H·KAP06/12H·SUM10/12H·ZIR17/12H·TUR07/02A·FK 15/02H·ARA22/02A·MOI01/03A·QAR13/03H·MIN24/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.851.251.091.090.561.44
vs Stronger (1)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (16)0.621.121.001.000.141.29
vs Weaker (3)2.331.673.001.002.002.00
Clean sheet %35% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Səbail II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Səbail IISəbail II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W02L11D10W10W00D31W02L10WH·TUR08/11A·FK 01/12H·ARA05/12A·MOI11/12H·MIN17/12H·QAR08/02A·NEF22/02H·ZAQ01/03A·QAR08/03H·IMI13/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.950.741.000.600.890.89
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.730.670.710.570.750.75
vs Weaker (4)1.751.001.670.672.002.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Keşlə II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Keşlə II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keşlə II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Keşlə II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Səbail II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.587.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ARA (19)
€6m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ARA (7)
€3m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ARA (5)
€2m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ARA (7)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
KI wins
0
Draws
1
SI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Keşlə II vs Səbail II · H/A from KI
DateH/AGameScore
12/10/22ASəbail II Vs KI2-1

Keşlə IIKeşlə II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/03/23HKI Vs Mingəçevir3-1
13/03/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs KI0-1
01/03/23AMOIK Vs KI4-2
22/02/23HKI Vs Araz0-2
15/02/23AFK Qəbələ II Vs KI1-1
07/02/23HKI Vs Turan II2-3
17/12/22HKI Vs Zira II2-1
10/12/22HKI Vs Sumqayıt II2-1
06/12/22HKI Vs Kapaz II1-0
09/11/22AImisli FK Vs KI1-0

Səbail IISəbail II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/03/23HSI Vs Imisli FK2-0
08/03/23AQarabağ II Vs SI2-0
01/03/23HSI Vs Zaqatala3-1
22/02/23ANeftçi II Vs SI5-1
08/02/23HSI Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan3-0
17/12/22HSI Vs Mingəçevir3-0
11/12/22AMOIK Vs SI3-1
05/12/22HSI Vs Araz0-2
01/12/22AFK Qəbələ II Vs SI1-1
08/11/22HSI Vs Turan II1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Keşlə II
Keşlə II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.35
HomeWWLLW1.82
AwayLLDLW0.78
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%55%22%
AVG goals3.153.093.22
Over 1.5 %75%82%67%
Over 2.5 %60%64%56%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.351.641.00
Conceded1.801.452.22
BTTS55%64%44%
Clean Sheet15%18%11%
Corners---
Cards---
Səbail II
Səbail II
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.58
HomeLWWWW2.20
AwayDDLLL0.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %47%70%22%
AVG goals3.473.004.00
Over 1.5 %89%90%89%
Over 2.5 %68%70%67%
Over 3.5 %42%30%56%
Scored1.792.001.56
Conceded1.681.002.44
BTTS63%50%78%
Clean Sheet26%40%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ArazAraz2869
79%
2.5
6922+47
3.2
89%
64%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3222.50.8
-
2Neftçi IINeftçi II2859
64%
2.1
6732+35
3.5
89%
68%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.41.1
-
3Turan IITuran II2848
54%
1.7
4937+12
3.1
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
-
4FK Qəbələ IIFK Qəbələ II2844
43%
1.6
4528+17
2.6
71%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.0
-
5Səbail IISəbail II2844
46%
1.6
4644+2
3.2
86%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.6
-
6ZaqatalaZaqatala2844
46%
1.6
4948+1
3.5
96%
71%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.7
-
7Kapaz IIKapaz II2843
46%
1.5
4136+5
2.8
75%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
8MOIKMOIK2843
43%
1.5
4342+1
3.0
82%
61%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
9Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2841
43%
1.5
3023+7
1.9
50%
32%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.10.8
-
10Keşlə IIKeşlə II2837
39%
1.3
4056-16
3.4
79%
68%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.42.0
-
11Qarabağ IIQarabağ II2831
32%
1.1
3239-7
2.5
68%
46%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
12Zira IIZira II2831
25%
1.1
3138-7
2.5
75%
54%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
13Sumqayıt IISumqayıt II2822
21%
0.8
3660-24
3.4
86%
71%
54%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
14Imisli FKImisli FK2820
21%
0.7
2166-45
3.1
82%
57%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3130.82.4
-
15MingəçevirMingəçevir2817
14%
0.6
2654-28
2.9
82%
54%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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