Kidderminster are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model favouring a home win at 47 %. The match is expected to see 2.5 goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.6 % chance. Kidderminster, playing against a weaker side, average 1.0 goal scored and 1.29 conceded at home, while Hartlepool, facing a stronger opponent on the road, average 0.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. The probability of a draw sits at 29 %, and an away win at 25 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 5.5 (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (93.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.8 %), Home +2 handicap (90.6 %), and Under 4.5 (89.2 %). The recent form shows Kidderminster coming off a draw, while Hartlepool are returning from a defeat.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kidderminster win
46.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool win
24.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
K
Kidderminster
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.20
1.06
1.19
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
1.17
1.33
1.17
1.33
1.17
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
1.21
0.88
1.38
1.17
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.57
1.14
1.21
1.00
1.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.19
1.58
1.23
1.08
1.15
2.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kidderminster) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.8%
Under 1.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.3%
Under 2.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.5%
Under 3.5
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.9%
No
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.4%
Kidderminster goals ↓
Hartlepool goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.7%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
6.0%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.3%
8.9%
4.3%
1.4%
0.3%
3
4.4%
4.2%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.6%
1.5%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kidderminster goals (down), columns = Hartlepool goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barrow
2.18
Harrogate
2.08
Carlisle
2.04
Boreham Wood
1.90
Scunthorpe
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Southend
1.72
Halifax
1.52
Hartlepool
1.48
Fylde
1.38
Kidderminster
1.38
Woking
1.37
Tamworth
1.35
Boston Utd
1.28
Altrincham
1.24
Wealdstone
1.22
Solihull
1.22
Yeovil
1.11
Eastleigh
1.09
Gateshead
1.09
Sutton
1.02
Aldershot
1.00
Kidderminster is 0.10 points worse than Hartlepool in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barrow
2.30
Harrogate
2.20
Boreham Wood
2.00
Carlisle
1.87
Southend
1.77
Forest Green
1.74
Scunthorpe
1.69
Solihull
1.54
Halifax
1.50
Aldershot
1.50
Woking
1.50
Wealdstone
1.48
Fylde
1.45
Kidderminster
1.45
Boston Utd
1.37
Tamworth
1.37
Sutton
1.28
Eastleigh
1.24
Altrincham
1.20
Hartlepool
1.17
Gateshead
1.17
Yeovil
1.04
Kidderminster is 0.28 goals better than Hartlepool in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Barrow
0.92
Harrogate
0.96
Southend
1.02
Carlisle
1.11
Forest Green
1.11
Woking
1.17
Boreham Wood
1.24
Hartlepool
1.28
Scunthorpe
1.35
Altrincham
1.41
Halifax
1.43
Boston Utd
1.46
Fylde
1.46
Kidderminster
1.46
Yeovil
1.48
Tamworth
1.54
Solihull
1.57
Wealdstone
1.65
Sutton
1.72
Eastleigh
1.74
Aldershot
1.89
Gateshead
1.96
Kidderminster is 0.18 goals worse than Hartlepool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.46 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Boreham Wood
58%
Wealdstone
57%
Sutton
54%
Aldershot
54%
Forest Green
53%
Southend
52%
Altrincham
52%
Gateshead
50%
Woking
50%
Scunthorpe
49%
Carlisle
49%
Solihull
48%
Halifax
48%
Hartlepool
47%
Yeovil
47%
Eastleigh
41%
Tamworth
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Kidderminster or Draw
75.8%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
24%
covers Kidderminster + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster or Hartlepool
70.5%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
24%
covers Kidderminster + Hartlepool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hartlepool
53.7%
Avg Implied -
46%
29%
24%
covers Draw + Hartlepool
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Kidderminster over/under 0.5
Over
75.7%
Under
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 1.5
Over
41.3%
Under
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 2.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 3.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Kidderminster, so a minus line means Kidderminster give that many goals of a start and Hartlepool receive them. At -1, Kidderminster must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Kidderminster win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Kidderminster)
Kidderminster -2
8.9%
Draw -2
14.3%
Hartlepool +2
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Kidderminster)
Kidderminster -1
23.2%
Draw -1
23.1%
Hartlepool +1
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Kidderminster)
Kidderminster +1
75.8%
Draw +1
15.2%
Hartlepool -1
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Kidderminster)
Kidderminster +2
91.0%
Draw +2
6.6%
Hartlepool -2
2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
K
Kidderminster
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.63
0.50
0.81
0.21
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.82
0.40
1.20
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (15)
0.40
0.60
0.56
0.78
0.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.29
0.44
0.81
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.62
0.46
0.23
0.54
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Kidderminster) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.0%
Under 0.5
31.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.4%
Under 1.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
10.8%
Under 2.5
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kidderminster over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.3%
Under
96.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
K
Kidderminster
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.50
0.44
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.36
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.60
0.67
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hartlepool
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.71
0.93
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.96
0.77
0.85
0.62
1.08
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kidderminster) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
41.1%
Under 1.5
58.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.8%
Under 2.5
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kidderminster over/under 0.5 2H
Over
60.6%
Under
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kidderminster over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
England: National League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →