Defensive solidity will be the focus as the model projects a tight, low-scoring affair. The probability of a win for Kortrijk stands at 18%, a draw at 30%, and an away win for Anderlecht at 52%, making the latter the clear favourite. The expected total goals hover just above two, with an average of 2.1 and a most likely total of 2 goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 15.8% chance, reflecting Anderlecht’s stronger offensive output away (2.2 goals scored, 0.8 conceded) versus Kortrijk’s modest home attack (0.5 goals scored, none conceded) against a stronger side. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 84%. Kortrijk’s recent form has been shaky after a 1-3 loss to Charleroi, while Anderlecht come off a 0-3 defeat to Union St. Gilloise but have shown resilience. The model’s selection remains an away win, with the match likely to end 0-1.
Results analysis
The 1-1 draw surprised everyone, as the pre-match favourite, Anderlecht, with a 52% probability, failed to win. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was a stalemate. The home side, Kortrijk, had been on a rough patch, their last five games showing LLLWL and a recent 1-3 loss to Charleroi, while Anderlecht had been coming off a defeat, their last five marked LWWLW and a 0-3 loss to Union St. Gilloise. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5, hit its mark with an 84% probability. The match ended 1-1, confirming the draw and the upset of the predicted away victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Kortrijk win✗ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
30.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht win✗ Miss
51.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Kortrijk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.17
0.83
1.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.33
0.75
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.75
0.75
1.43
0.71
2.20
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
1.89
0.78
1.50
0.75
2.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.0%
Under 1.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.8%
Under 2.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.0%
Under 3.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.3%
No
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.8%
0-0
13.6%
1-1 ✓
13.3%
0-2
11.7%
1-2
8.4%
1-0
7.6%
0-3
5.4%
2-1
4.3%
Kortrijk goals ↓
Anderlecht goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
16%
12%
5.4%
1.9%
1
7.6%
13%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
3.1%
4.3%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
3
0.7%
1.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kortrijk goals (down), columns = Anderlecht goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
2.00
Anderlecht
1.83
Oostende
1.63
Genk
1.60
Zulte Waregem
1.43
Standard Liege
1.37
Kortrijk
1.30
Charleroi
1.30
KV Mechelen
1.23
Lokeren
1.13
SK Beveren
1.10
KVC Westerlo
1.00
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.00
St. Truiden
1.00
OH Leuven
0.97
Kortrijk is 0.53 points worse than Anderlecht in terms of average points per game (1.30 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Club Brugge KV
2.13
Gent
1.87
Oostende
1.83
Zulte Waregem
1.70
Anderlecht
1.70
KV Mechelen
1.60
Genk
1.40
OH Leuven
1.40
Standard Liege
1.37
SK Beveren
1.33
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.30
Charleroi
1.20
KVC Westerlo
1.17
Lokeren
1.17
Kortrijk
1.03
St. Truiden
0.93
Kortrijk is 0.67 goals worse than Anderlecht in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Anderlecht
0.97
Gent
0.97
Club Brugge KV
1.00
Genk
1.00
Kortrijk
1.17
Charleroi
1.30
Lokeren
1.33
Oostende
1.47
St. Truiden
1.57
Zulte Waregem
1.67
KV Mechelen
1.67
Mouscron-Peruwelz
1.70
Standard Liege
1.70
OH Leuven
1.77
SK Beveren
1.90
KVC Westerlo
1.97
Kortrijk is 0.20 goals worse than Anderlecht in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 0.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Kortrijk
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Anderlecht
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kortrijk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Kortrijk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.17
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (7)
0.43
0.29
0.67
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+58pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.08
0.71
0.00
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
0.67
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.11
0.75
0.00
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
92% (+67pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Kortrijk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.58
0.58
0.50
0.17
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
0.67
0.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
58% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Anderlecht) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anderlecht
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.08
0.67
0.71
0.71
1.60
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.67
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
1.22
0.67
0.75
0.75
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Kortrijk) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kortrijk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kortrijk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anderlecht over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kortrijk · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thierry Ambrose40%
Bryan Adinany40%
Jellert Van Landschoot38%
Mouhamed Gueye25%
Ilan Hurtevent24%
Brecht Dejaegere11%
Matthew Anderson11%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Boris Lambert5%
Lenn De Smet5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brecht Dejaegere28%
Mohamed Fofana25%
Bryan Adinany20%
James Ndjeungoue18%
Rudy Kohon17%
Thierry Ambrose15%
Jellert Van Landschoot14%
Lennard Hens14%
Gilles Ruyssen12%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Liam De Smet11%
Manuel Osifo11%
Boris Lambert10%
Lenn De Smet10%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes6%
Matthew Anderson6%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Sixtus Ogbuehi0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thierry Ambrose40%
Lennard Hens21%
Bryan Adinany20%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes19%
Brecht Dejaegere17%
Matthew Anderson17%
Lenn De Smet14%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
Ilan Hurtevent6%
Manuel Osifo6%
Rudy Kohon6%
Boris Lambert5%
Jellert Van Landschoot5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Gilles Ruyssen0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
James Ndjeungoue0%
Cassius Mailula0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cassius Mailula33%
Thierry Ambrose20%
Bryan Adinany20%
Jellert Van Landschoot19%
Ilan Hurtevent12%
Gilles Ruyssen6%
Sixtus Ogbuehi6%
James Ndjeungoue6%
Brecht Dejaegere6%
Boris Lambert5%
Gilles Dewaele0%
Marko Ilić0%
Lennard Hens0%
Youssef Challouk0%
Liam De Smet0%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes0%
Lenn De Smet0%
Manuel Osifo0%
Rudy Kohon0%
Matthew Anderson0%
Ebbe De Vlaeminck0%
Mouhamed Gueye0%
Mohamed Fofana0%
Anderlecht · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Joshua Nga Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Giulian Biancone67%
Danylo Sikan33%
Marco Kana33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Ali Maamar0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Danylo Sikan0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danylo Sikan67%
Ali Maamar33%
Ludwig Augustinsson0%
Colin Coosemans0%
Oliver Antman0%
Giulian Biancone0%
Marco Kana0%
Léo Pétrot0%
Moussa Ndiaye0%
Lukáš Ambros0%
Mihajlo Cvetković0%
Joshua Nga Kana0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (27)
€196m
GEN (30)
€113m
AND (32)
€91m
GEN (32)
€58m
SL (27)
€54m
KM (31)
€45m
KW (26)
€38m
CHA (21)
€31m
OL (27)
€30m
ST (23)
€30m
ZW (27)
€20m
KOR (24)
€18m
SB (24)
€12m
Kortrijk's squad is €74m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€18m vs €91m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (10)
€92m
AND (12)
€50m
GEN (10)
€39m
GEN (11)
€17m
KW (11)
€16m
SL (9)
€14m
KM (9)
€13m
CHA (8)
€13m
ST (10)
€11m
KOR (9)
€9m
ZW (10)
€8m
OL (8)
€7m
SB (9)
€4m
Kortrijk's attack is €42m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€9m vs €50m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (5)
€23m
GEN (8)
€22m
GEN (5)
€19m
AND (5)
€18m
KW (5)
€9m
SL (7)
€8m
KM (7)
€7m
OL (6)
€6m
ST (4)
€4m
CHA (5)
€4m
KOR (5)
€4m
ZW (4)
€4m
SB (5)
€3m
Kortrijk's midfield is €14m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€4m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CBK (12)
€81m
GEN (15)
€55m
SL (11)
€31m
KM (15)
€25m
AND (15)
€24m
GEN (13)
€19m
OL (13)
€17m
CHA (8)
€14m
ST (9)
€14m
KW (10)
€12m
ZW (13)
€9m
KOR (10)
€5m
SB (10)
€5m
Kortrijk's defence is €18m less valuable than Anderlecht's (€5m vs €24m).
Belgium: Jupiler Pro League 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belgium: Jupiler Pro League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Club Brugge KV
Gent
Oostende
Genk
Zulte Waregem
Standard Liege
Charleroi
KV Mechelen
SK Beveren
St. Truiden
KVC Westerlo
OH Leuven