PythiaFootballBETA
Kortrijk is expected to emerge victorious in this match, following a recent resurgence after two straight defeats, including a 0-3 loss to Antwerp. The home side has been averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded at home against similar opponents. RWDM, on the other hand, has been struggling away from home, scoring an average of 1.62 goals and conceding 1.88 against similar opponents.
The model predicts a home win with a 55% probability, a draw at 24%, and an away win at 21%. The expected total goals stand at 3.1, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw with a 11.2% probability.
The model suggests backing Kortrijk to win at home, with a 55% probability, and RWDM to win away, with a 21% probability. The model's selection of Over 21.5 fouls has an 83.1% probability, and Over 1.5 has an 82% probability. Kortrijk has a 55% chance of winning, a 24% chance of drawing, and a 21% chance of losing.
The win extends Kortrijk's run, snapping their two-match losing streak. In the end, it was a convincing 3-1 victory for the home side. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 55%. The model's call was spot on, as the actual result was indeed a home win. The model's selection of over 1.5 goals also hit, with a probability of 82%. The model's other selection, which isn't explicitly stated in this review, did not come in.
Kortrijk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.07 | 2.27 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.79 | 0.95 | 2.22 | 0.89 | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
RWDM| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.53 | 1.73 | 1.53 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.19 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 1.88 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 1.92 | 1.42 | 2.33 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| RWDM goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 11% | 5.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.7% | 9.9% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.6% | 6.4% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
KortrijkRWDMKortrijk| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.3 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 24.4 | 24.9 | 23.9 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 9.7 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 20.6 | 17.7 | 22.8 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.5 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 26.6 | 28.3 | 24.6 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 11.0 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 25.3 | 25.5 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 52% | 55% | 50% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| % under line | 48% | 45% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 40% | 40% | 40% |
RWDM| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 24.8 | 23.4 | 26.2 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.5 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 7.0 | 28.5 | 28.0 | 29.0 |
| vs Similar (29) | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 24.9 | 23.4 | 26.4 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 8.2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 23.5 | 22.1 | 25.0 |
| % over line | 38% | 42% | 33% | 44% | 40% | 48% | 68% | 58% | 78% |
| % under line | 62% | 58% | 67% | 56% | 60% | 52% | 32% | 42% | 22% |
Kortrijk| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.80 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+42pp vs league) | |||||
RWDM| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.73 | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.69 | 0.88 | 0.50 | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (12) | 0.75 | 0.42 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 81.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 cards | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 11.5 corners | 70.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 28/04/24 | A | 0-1 | |
| 21/04/24 | H | 2-4 | |
| 03/03/24 | H | 3-2 | |
| 04/11/23 | A | 1-1 |
Kortrijk| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/02/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 07/02/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 01/02/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 27/01/26 | A | 2-0 |
RWDM| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 11/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 22/02/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/02/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/01/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  SK Beveren | 32 | 88 | 88% | 2.8 | 74 | 23 | +51 | 3.0 | 84% | 62% | 31% | 10.0 | 55% | 3.8 | 55% | 22.4 | 45% | 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 56% |
| 2 | Kortrijk | 31 | 64 | 65% | 2.1 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 2.9 | 74% | 48% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.0 | 57% | 26.7 | 81% | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 3 |  Beerschot VA | 32 | 64 | 59% | 2.0 | 52 | 31 | +21 | 2.6 | 75% | 50% | 19% | 9.6 | 52% | 5.1 | 88% | 27.2 | 76% | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 53% |
| 4 |  Lommel United | 32 | 53 | 47% | 1.7 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 3.3 | 84% | 59% | 41% | 9.9 | 43% | 3.9 | 57% | 24.7 | 70% | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 55% |
| 5 |  Liège | 32 | 53 | 50% | 1.7 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 2.6 | 81% | 44% | 22% | 9.5 | 39% | 4.0 | 65% | 24.7 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 44% |
| 6 |  Patro Eisden | 32 | 51 | 44% | 1.6 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 2.6 | 75% | 47% | 25% | 8.3 | 27% | 6.0 | 85% | 29.4 | 85% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 38% |
| 7 |  AS Eupen | 32 | 47 | 38% | 1.5 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 2.5 | 66% | 47% | 25% | 10.0 | 52% | 4.0 | 50% | 25.7 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 8 |  Lokeren-Temse | 32 | 42 | 31% | 1.3 | 48 | 45 | +3 | 2.9 | 78% | 53% | 38% | 11.4 | 62% | 5.4 | 75% | 29.2 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 9 |  KAA Gent II | 32 | 41 | 38% | 1.3 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 2.9 | 84% | 56% | 38% | 9.5 | 48% | 4.0 | 61% | 26.3 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 10 |  K. Lierse S.K. | 32 | 38 | 31% | 1.2 | 35 | 42 | -7 | 2.4 | 62% | 41% | 19% | 9.0 | 50% | 5.2 | 79% | 27.6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 | RWDM | 32 | 36 | 28% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.2 | 84% | 59% | 47% | 8.2 | 24% | 4.3 | 62% | 25.6 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 12 |  Seraing United | 31 | 35 | 26% | 1.1 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 35% | 8.1 | 36% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.1 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 41% |
| 13 |  Francs Borains | 32 | 35 | 28% | 1.1 | 33 | 47 | -14 | 2.5 | 72% | 41% | 34% | 10.3 | 58% | 4.7 | 65% | 25.8 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 14 |  RSC Anderlecht II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.2 | 78% | 62% | 44% | 10.3 | 50% | 4.2 | 50% | 29.0 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 52% |
| 15 |  KRC Genk II | 32 | 31 | 22% | 1.0 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 3.2 | 84% | 62% | 41% | 9.9 | 76% | 3.6 | 62% | 25.4 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 52% |
| 16 |  Club Brugge II | 32 | 21 | 16% | 0.7 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 2.8 | 75% | 56% | 31% | 8.8 | 33% | 4.1 | 60% | 28.2 | 96% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 56% |
| 17 |  Olympic Charleroi | 32 | 16 | 9% | 0.5 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 2.9 | 78% | 59% | 31% | 9.7 | 59% | 4.0 | 55% | 24.4 | 64% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 48% |