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Kozani vs PAOK II Result & Analysis

Date: 08/05/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 3-1
Kozani
Kozani
Vs
34%
31%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
PAOK II
PAOK II
Greece: Super League 2
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Kozani win✓ Hit
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
PAOK II win✗ Miss
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

KozaniKozani

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L10W10W11D24L22D00D11D11DH·AEK18/02A·PAO29/02H·IRA04/03H·ANA24/03A·IRA30/03A·PAO03/04H·KAM07/04A·AIO14/04A·ANA21/04H·IRA28/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.900.710.930.530.87
vs Stronger (17)0.651.120.500.880.781.33
vs Similar (12)0.580.581.001.000.170.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %41% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOK IIPAOK II

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W13L40W21W42W12L24L20W10W21WH·KOZ29/02A·LEV04/03H·NIK11/03H·AIO30/03H·KOZ03/04A·IRA07/04A·KAM10/04H·ANA14/04H·KAM21/04A·AIO29/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.331.870.801.201.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.501.501.831.001.172.00
vs Weaker (18)1.561.221.890.671.221.78
Clean sheet %40% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.6%
Under 1.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.4%
Under 3.5
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
10.2%
1-0
10.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.7%
2-0
6.5%
Kozani goals ↓
PAOK II goals →
01234
011%10%6.7%2.6%0.8%
110%15%7.7%3.0%0.9%
26.5%7.6%4.4%1.7%0.5%
32.5%2.9%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.7%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Kozani goals (down), columns = PAOK II goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Levadiakos
2.47
Kallithea
2.13
Larisa
1.97
Kissamikos
1.90
Ionikos
1.57
Ilioupoli
1.53
PAOK II
1.53
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.38
Iraklis 1908
1.38
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.33
Egaleo
1.31
Diagoras
1.31
AEK Athens II
1.27
Kalamata
1.27
Panachaiki FC
1.25
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.25
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.22
Kozani
1.19
Giouchtas
1.00
Panathinaikos II
0.94
Tilikratis
0.82
Aiolikos
0.75
Apollon Pontou
0.50
Kozani is 0.34 points worse than PAOK II in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kissamikos
1.93
Levadiakos
1.77
Kallithea
1.63
PAOK II
1.62
Larisa
1.60
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.50
Ionikos
1.43
Niki Volos
1.37
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.23
Iraklis 1908
1.09
Panachaiki FC
1.09
AEK Athens II
1.07
Ilioupoli
1.03
Kalamata
0.97
Kampaniakos Chalastra
0.94
Diagoras
0.91
Giouchtas
0.88
Anagennisi Karditsas
0.88
Aiolikos
0.84
Panathinaikos II
0.78
Kozani
0.78
Egaleo
0.78
Tilikratis
0.77
Apollon Pontou
0.55
Kozani is 0.84 goals worse than PAOK II in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.62).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Levadiakos
0.47
Kallithea
0.63
Larisa
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.88
Kozani
0.91
Kissamikos
0.93
Egaleo
0.94
Ionikos
0.97
Kalamata
1.00
Olympiakos Piraeus II
1.06
Anagennisi Karditsas
1.06
Diagoras
1.12
AEK Athens II
1.17
Niki Volos
1.17
Makedonikos Neapolis
1.27
Kampaniakos Chalastra
1.28
Panachaiki FC
1.31
Giouchtas
1.34
PAOK II
1.38
Ilioupoli
1.40
Panathinaikos II
1.47
Aiolikos
1.59
Tilikratis
1.68
Apollon Pontou
2.05
Kozani is 0.47 goals better than PAOK II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.91 vs 1.38).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

KozaniKozani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W00D00D11D02L00D01L00DH·AEK18/02A·PAO29/02H·IRA04/03H·ANA24/03A·IRA30/03A·PAO03/04H·KAM07/04A·AIO14/04A·ANA21/04H·IRA28/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.240.520.290.430.200.60
vs Stronger (17)0.240.590.120.250.330.89
vs Similar (12)0.250.420.500.670.000.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %55% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOK IIPAOK II

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L10W10W11D02L03L10W10W01LH·KOZ29/02A·LEV04/03H·NIK11/03H·AIO30/03H·KOZ03/04A·IRA07/04A·KAM10/04H·ANA14/04H·KAM21/04A·AIO29/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.701.070.270.401.13
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.580.750.830.330.331.17
vs Weaker (18)0.830.671.220.220.441.11
Clean sheet %50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Kozani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

KozaniKozani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D00D10W11D13L20W00D10W11DH·AEK18/02A·PAO29/02H·IRA04/03H·ANA24/03A·IRA30/03A·PAO03/04H·KAM07/04A·AIO14/04A·ANA21/04H·IRA28/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.380.380.430.500.330.27
vs Stronger (17)0.410.530.380.620.440.44
vs Similar (12)0.330.170.500.330.170.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %76% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (PAOK II) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PAOK IIPAOK II

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D30W11D31W10W21W10W00D20WH·KOZ29/02A·LEV04/03H·NIK11/03H·AIO30/03H·KOZ03/04A·IRA07/04A·KAM10/04H·ANA14/04H·KAM21/04A·AIO29/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.800.530.800.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)0.920.751.000.670.830.83
vs Weaker (18)0.720.560.670.440.780.67
Clean sheet %50% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Kozani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
PAOK II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.6%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (24)
€16m
KAL (28)
€11m
I1 (25)
€9m
EGA (40)
€6m
NV (24)
€6m
PI (21)
€5m
KAL (27)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
AK (25)
€4m
OPI (22)
€4m
ILI (31)
€4m
MN (29)
€3m
KC (26)
€2m
AP (16)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (11)
€5m
KAL (8)
€4m
EGA (19)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PI (9)
€2m
NV (7)
€2m
OPI (9)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
KAL (9)
€2m
AK (7)
€1m
ILI (10)
€1m
MN (10)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
KC (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
KAL (6)
€2m
NV (6)
€1m
PI (4)
€1m
EGA (6)
€1m
ILI (6)
€1m
AK (6)
€1m
KC (7)
€1m
LAR (3)
€1m
KAL (4)
€1m
AP (4)
€1m
MN (4)
€0m
OPI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
KAL (14)
€3m
NV (11)
€3m
EGA (15)
€2m
LAR (13)
€2m
PI (8)
€2m
OPI (10)
€2m
AK (12)
€2m
ILI (15)
€2m
MN (15)
€1m
KC (11)
€1m
AP (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
KOZ wins
0
Draws
3
PI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Kozani vs PAOK II · H/A from KOZ
DateH/AGameScore
03/04/24APAOK II Vs KOZ4-2
29/02/24APAOK II Vs KOZ1-0
29/11/23HKOZ Vs PAOK II0-1

KozaniKozani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HKOZ Vs Iraklis 19081-1
21/04/24AAnagennisi Karditsas Vs KOZ1-1
14/04/24AAiolikos Vs KOZ0-0
07/04/24HKOZ Vs Kampaniakos Chalastra2-2
03/04/24APAOK II Vs KOZ4-2
30/03/24AIraklis 1908 Vs KOZ1-1
24/03/24HKOZ Vs Anagennisi Karditsas1-0
04/03/24HKOZ Vs Iraklis 19081-0
29/02/24APAOK II Vs KOZ1-0
18/02/24HKOZ Vs AEK Athens II0-1

PAOK IIPAOK II

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/24AAiolikos Vs PI1-2
21/04/24HPI Vs Kampaniakos Chalastra1-0
14/04/24HPI Vs Anagennisi Karditsas2-0
10/04/24AKampaniakos Chalastra Vs PI4-2
07/04/24AIraklis 1908 Vs PI2-1
03/04/24HPI Vs Kozani4-2
30/03/24HPI Vs Aiolikos2-1
11/03/24HPI Vs Niki Volos4-0
04/03/24ALevadiakos Vs PI3-1
29/02/24HPI Vs Kozani1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Kozani
Kozani
Greece: Super League 2
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDDD1.10
HomeLWWDD1.29
AwayLDLDD0.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%36%13%
AVG goals1.521.641.40
Over 1.5 %41%43%40%
Over 2.5 %14%21%7%
Over 3.5 %7%7%7%
Scored0.620.710.53
Conceded0.900.930.87
BTTS28%21%33%
Clean Sheet41%43%40%
Corners---
Cards---
PAOK II
PAOK II
Greece: Super League 2
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.50
HomeWWWWW1.85
AwayWLLLW1.12
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%54%33%
AVG goals2.943.042.83
Over 1.5 %74%77%71%
Over 2.5 %54%54%54%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.621.921.29
Conceded1.321.121.54
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet30%35%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LevadiakosLevadiakos3074
77%
2.5
5314+39
2.2
70%
40%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
16
5551.80.5
-
2KallitheaKallithea3064
63%
2.1
4919+30
2.3
67%
47%
13%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2131.60.6
-
3LarisaLarisa3059
53%
2.0
4826+22
2.5
83%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.60.9
-
4KissamikosKissamikos3057
57%
1.9
5828+30
2.9
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.90.9
-
5PAOK IIPAOK II3249
47%
1.5
5244+8
3.0
78%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.4
-
6IonikosIonikos3047
40%
1.6
4329+14
2.4
63%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.0
-
7IlioupoliIlioupoli3046
47%
1.5
3142-11
2.4
57%
47%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.01.4
-
8Olympiakos Piraeus IIOlympiakos Piraeus II3244
34%
1.4
4834+14
2.6
66%
47%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2021.51.1
-
9Iraklis 1908Iraklis 19083244
31%
1.4
3528+7
2.0
59%
28%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.10.9
-
10EgaleoEgaleo3242
34%
1.3
2530-5
1.7
47%
22%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3120.80.9
-
11DiagorasDiagoras3242
34%
1.3
2936-7
2.0
59%
31%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.1
-
12Niki VolosNiki Volos3041
40%
1.4
4135+6
2.5
77%
43%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.41.2
-
13Makedonikos NeapolisMakedonikos Neapolis3040
30%
1.3
3738-1
2.5
73%
47%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.3
-
14Panachaiki FCPanachaiki FC3240
31%
1.2
3542-7
2.4
69%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
15Kampaniakos ChalastraKampaniakos Chalastra3240
38%
1.2
3041-11
2.2
56%
34%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.3
-
16Anagennisi KarditsasAnagennisi Karditsas3239
31%
1.2
2834-6
1.9
59%
31%
9%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.91.1
-
17KalamataKalamata3038
33%
1.3
2930-1
2.0
53%
30%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
4251.01.0
-
18AEK Athens IIAEK Athens II3038
30%
1.3
3235-3
2.2
63%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
19KozaniKozani3238
28%
1.2
2529-4
1.7
44%
19%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.80.9
-
20GiouchtasGiouchtas3232
25%
1.0
2843-15
2.2
62%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
21Panathinaikos IIPanathinaikos II3230
25%
0.9
2547-22
2.2
69%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
22AiolikosAiolikos3224
16%
0.8
2751-24
2.4
75%
47%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
23TilikratisTilikratis2218
23%
0.8
1737-20
2.5
68%
55%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
-
24Apollon PontouApollon Pontou2211
14%
0.5
1245-33
2.6
59%
55%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.52.0
-
25AlmoposAlmopos00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
Greece: Super League 2 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 2 stats & trends →

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